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I know you’re a huge winter fan, but I would just be cautious of the some of the hype the Weather Channel/AccuWeather spins: Do you have any idea how low the odds are of a snowstorm in the Tri-State area are in November…let alone just snow?
In fact, according to the NOAA climate normal’s for NWS Bridgeport/Norwich – the is a mean of 0 (zero) inches of snowfall in the first 24 days of November…meaning from 1948 – to 2009 the long term average snowfall is “zero” across both NWS stations in 25 of 30 days of the month. Even NWS at Bradley Airport in extreme northern Connecticut (7 miles from the Massachusetts state line) has a mean date of December 1st for the first 1 inch of snow. Several spots in Connecticut have not even had a frost yet.
Looking for snow/snowstorms in November in the Tri-State area (beyond the highest elevations like the NW Hills/NW NJ...etc) is like hoping for a 99-yard touchdown pass with 0.2 seconds left in the game. Possible yes. Likely, no.
Just like the lowest central pressure of a non tropica storm most likely won't go below 950 (yet it did the other day). Just like tornado outbreak usually is never over 35 in october (yet we had 60 yesterday)...people have to stop looking at weather history/stats because we're breaking records all over the place. We only started keeping track 100+yrs ago..the earth is billion years old!!l
If the trough shifts east a little its going to get interesting..mid level temps will be near freezing and like I been saying warm waters can fuel a snowstorm not supress it...
And I just heard bridgeport broke a record high temp yesterday at 72 or 74? So if you told me it rarely happens that we go above 70 end of October it would only have a slight truth in it BUT it happened.
Thats why I dont listen to that no snow in November crap. Or statistics showing me it rarely does...or saying warm waters wont let it snow.... Be careful what you hear folks...records are bing broken and rare events happening all over the place.
And I just heard bridgeport broke a record high temp yesterday at 72 or 74? So if you told me it rarely happens that we go above 70 end of October it would only have a slight truth in it BUT it happened.
Thats why I dont listen to that no snow in November crap. Or statistics showing me it rarely does...or saying warm waters wont let it snow.... Be careful what you hear folks...records are bing broken and rare events happening all over the place.
The proability of snow occurring from December 15th to March 15th in the local area is the highest. Of course, even in the 90 days of winter it is a fleeting pitch for snow in the Tri-State area. We know this because unlike Duluth or Bangor that gets 80 inches of snow annually…NWS stations across the Tri-State get more like 35 inches of snow on average (many NWS stations across southern CT/NYC/NJ…get less than 25 inches of snow each winter on average). If the cold/moisture/pattern combo was so common, the pattern always ripe for snow…our annual snow fall would be much higher. Long term data doesn’t lie.
Also, I don’t think the warm Atlantic “wont let it snow”. However, its well known that when low pressure passes to our west (like the big storm you saw in the Midwest this past week)…the East Coast is flooded with warm subtropical air. Just as you note above - temps were in the 70’s (with dew points in the upper 60’s) in Connecticut, NY/NJ, MD, ...etc as the low swept through the Great Lakes. North Dakota got snow…the East Coast got 75 F weather- lol. You can thank the subtropical Atlantic for that.
Also, keep in mind while the Atlantic might be 60 or 65 F off New Jersey…it’s still 80 F off North Carolina. Any prevailing wind that develops for more than a few hours (like this past storm) will advect that warmth/humidty right over us. It’s never very far. So while warm Atlantic sst do not “prevent snow”…SOUTH WINDS DO. Any wind that comes from the south (even in the coldest time of year in early January)…will warm us and often keeps snow totals down. Of course, it mid winter it is more elevation dependent: Hartford (40 inches of snow annually) gets half as much snow as New Haven (24 inches of snow annually) because it is closer to the warm Atlantic…just as New Haven gets more snow than Atlantic City (15 inches of snow annually) because Atlantic Cityu is even closer to the warm ocean…etc. So the Atlantic IS THE BIG PLAYER in East Coast winter weather. One of the reasons I like living on the coast of Connecticut – snow is very fleeting.
For now, as long as the lows stay over us or west of us...combined with the very warm (60 to 80 F) Atlantic Ocean...snow is far off. Trust me.
just as New Haven gets more snow than Atlantic City (15 inches of snow annually) because Atlantic Cityu is even closer to the warm ocean…etc.
Actually, while that explains New Haven vs. Hartford/Bradley, being a couple of hundred miles further north than Atlantic City factors in too (which also makes the water a little "less warm"). Boston is just as close to the ocean (or at least a major body of salt water) as New Haven but it has a seasonal snowfall avg. close to Bradley's (42 inches). Portland, ME's average rivals that of Worcester, MA or Albany, NY even though it's on the ocean (about 70").
Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007
I know you’re a huge winter fan, but I would just be cautious of the some of the hype the Weather Channel/AccuWeather spins: Do you have any idea how low the odds are of a snowstorm in the Tri-State area are in November…let alone just snow?
Just take the three NWS stations in Connecticut – Bradley, Norwich, and Bridgeport:
Mean Date For first 0.1 inches of snow (1948 -2000):
Bridgeport – December 5
Norwich – December 15
November - 23
Mean Date for first 1.0 inches of snow (1948 – 2000):
Bridgeport – December 21
Norwich – December 20
Bradley - December 1
In fact, according to the NOAA climate normal’s for NWS Bridgeport/Norwich – the is a mean of 0 (zero) inches of snowfall in the first 24 days of November…meaning from 1948 – to 2009 the long term average snowfall is “zero” across both NWS stations in 25 of 30 days of the month. Even NWS at Bradley Airport in extreme northern Connecticut (7 miles from the Massachusetts state line) has a mean date of December 1st for the first 1 inch of snow. Several spots in Connecticut have not even had a frost yet.
Looking for snow/snowstorms in November in the Tri-State area (beyond the highest elevations like the NW Hills/NW NJ...etc) is like hoping for a 99-yard touchdown pass with 0.2 seconds left in the game. Possible yes. Likely, no.
"Sticking" snow in the tri-state area and even along the eastern CT coast in Nov. is about as rare as the same in April (whether "global warming" or not, it was a little less rare pre-1970......if you go on the NWS OKX site and look at the Central Park monthly snowfall totals, you'll see what I mean). It shows the last November "sticking" snow being in 1996 (0.1" on Thanksgiving!), but most periods before that don't go as many years without a "sticking" November snow as currently (14 and counting, obviously).
But though I think Cambium sometimes "wishcasts", the fact that even in NYC they are predicting lows in the upper 30s all week, I could see a little bit of wet flakes sneak in in the predicted Wed night/Thurs rainfall late at night or in the morning. It would not be a big deal and probably wouldn't be measurable (though it would be early in the month), if you go to the same OKX site I mention above even in Central Park about once every 2-4 years November does see a TRACE of snow (i.e. a flurry or something wet mixing in) at some point in the month.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
And I just heard bridgeport broke a record high temp yesterday at 72 or 74? So if you told me it rarely happens that we go above 70 end of October it would only have a slight truth in it BUT it happened.
Thats why I dont listen to that no snow in November crap. Or statistics showing me it rarely does...or saying warm waters wont let it snow.... Be careful what you hear folks...records are bing broken and rare events happening all over the place.
If you look at the "Almanac" section of the OKX website (including Bridgeport, but Central Park is best since it goes back to 1869 for records while Bridgeport only goes to 1948), you'll see that in the last 30 years we've had a lot more "warm" records broken than "cold" records. I'm not fully convinced it's all "global warming" (I think some of it is "urban heat island" supressing nighttime lows that could be records; also the one NWS site I know of that has an "records section" that goes back before the late 1800s is the Albany, NY site which notes records from amateurs recording all the way back to the 1790's and they show a lot of "record warm" months in the early 1800s), but it's a fact.
Obviously no snow, no flakes..Will get a cold rain in a few days! Hit 27 last night....Its testing the strength of my wood stove for sure... Havent turned on the heat yet...My furnace has not run yet!
The pattern has surely changed. Trough dipping deep and east...perfect for cold air to settle in and storms to ride up the coast.
"Sticking" snow in the tri-state area and even along the eastern CT coast in Nov. is about as rare as the same in April (whether "global warming" or not, it was a little less rare pre-1970......if you go on the NWS OKX site and look at the Central Park monthly snowfall totals, you'll see what I mean). It shows the last November "sticking" snow being in 1996 (0.1" on Thanksgiving!), but most periods before that don't go as many years without a "sticking" November snow as currently (14 and counting, obviously).
For a minute there I thought you were talking about Christmas (which in 2002 had a big rain turn into major snow and ice event throughout the tri-state area), but I went on the OKX site and I see what you mean. 3.0" in Bridgeport on Nov 27, 2002 record for the date.
My wife worked in Norwalk at the time so I would think I'd remember that one but maybe because it was Thanksgiving weekend so she was home in NY and not at work and I don't believe most of the non-CT parts of the tri-state area got much snow (OKX shows a T for Central Park) I probably didn't think of that one. This is a CONNECTICUT weather forum and not a NY City or Westchester one, so touche' and thanks for the correction.
Your right of course, latitude also means something too. Just keep in mind…the Atlantic cools rapidly north of Rhode Island. So the oceans influence is much less from Boston northward…than south of Boston. If you look at annual seasonal snowfall totals within about 50 miles of the Atlantic Ocean, they seem to fall fast from southern Rhode Island southward. Right now the Atlantic is near 16/17 C (61 -64 F) off Long Island/New Jersey…but less than 12 C (53 F) from Boston northward. In fact, if you look closely, you can see there is still 20 C (70 F) sea temperatures near 38.5 north (about 200 miles south of Long Island/NJ/Connecticut), and 26 C (80 F) seas from North Carolina southward. ANY wind of a southerly origin will bring that mild air right over the top of us given a few hours.
As far as the snow in November, your 100% right. That was kind of my point: Fleeting November snow flurries in the higher elevations of the Tri-State/Conn are one thing…but it’s the typical hype/disingenuous spin for the Weather Channel/AccuWeather to try to say there is a chance for real snow on the East Coast south of Boston in November. I know they are in the marketing business as much as the weather business…but I think hype ruins the average persons understanding of the climate of this region. It’s typical for the East Coast to have up and down temps in November and December. By next week, another pattern shift could send local temps into the upper 60’s. Then it will fall again…etc. Significant snow has little chance of falling/surviving here until late December…that’s just the climatic fact. My prediction is this year winter will be text book normal in the Tri-State area – the first real snow should be within a few days of Christmas.
We did get close to a frost however over the last few days where I am (went down to 32.6 F )…and my Elephant Ears are showing some burning on the leaves. Although we will warm some in the coming days (mid 50’s) and the rain might help…the days are numbered for them – lol.
We did get close to a frost however over the last few days where I am (went down to 32.6 F )…and my Elephant Ears are showing some burning on the leaves. Although we will warm some in the coming days (mid 50’s) and the rain might help…the days are numbered for them – lol.
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Where in the world are you?? I've had ice on my windshield past 2 mornings. Reached 27 Monday morning and 30 this morning and I'm 10 minutes from the coast.
You havent gotten frost yet? No wonder why you dont believe in snow in November. lol
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