[HeadedWest]

Originally Posted by jp03

Cambium likes to take a cold model and blow it up to suit the worst possible case.. It never seems to happen.

It's called wishcasting.

[kidyankee764]

Snow showers are in the forecast for early tomorrow morning in the upper Litchfield hills.

[andthentherewere3]

LOL, we are having a small thunderstorm right now.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

LOL, we are having a small thunderstorm right now.

Oh yeah, wow, I see it on the radar. Nice. It's the cold front sweeping by...gonna get fridgid tonight and stay cold tomorrow!

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by jp03

But wave,,,I dont agree about the temps..it WILL get below normal around Halloween. There is no doubt it won't snow, but it will be colder than average for a 4 days stretch in that timeframe.

Hmmm…

Today is the 21st….that is a ten day or so forecast. As I mentioned several times, anything beyond 96 hours (4 days) has a 50% chance of being totally wrong from what I have seen. I don’t know where you saw that next weekend will have temps below average…but even if some wild model had that output, it’s just a dart a board after 96 hours.

In the near term…I completely agree with AccuWeather - we'll see a fleeting cool shot on Friday (tomorrow) across the Tri-State/middle East Coast…with highs in the middle 50’s across most of Connecticut/Long Island (yes, there is a shot there could be a flurry in the very highest elevations of northwest CT/NW New Jersey/higher spots in the Hudson Valley). By Saturday, moderation will quickly take hold as the southerly flow strengthens ...and temps will be in the 60’s and 70’s for the next 7 days or so. A storm looks to come together (a 50/50 % chance) the middle of next week and head for the eastern Great Lakes, mostly rain but it could get cold enough for some snow up in the UP of MI and maybe the western side of the Lakes (not a good shot). The East Coast will see clouds and mild conditions as the low swings up into the Great Lakes. After that who knows.

There is a frost warning for northern Connecticut tonight however. The last time NWS station in far northern Connecticut (Bradley) reported a temp of 32 F (0 C) was May 13th (162 days ago). The last time the NWS station in southern Connecticut (Bridgeport) reported a temp of 32 F was March 27th (205 days ago). So tonight looks interesting.

[Cambium]

It snowed at 1470 feet in NY. Lakewood I believe...it's coming. Seems like its snowing 1000 feet in elevation less than previous weeks. Started at 4000 feet 2 weeks ago. Then 3000 last week...now 1470? At this pace we should be seeing snow in 2 weeks by the coast.

"SEEING" not accumulating although its possible to get less than 2 inches.

P.S - The snow at lakewood was for a few minutes, but its snow.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

It snowed at 1470 feet in NY. Lakewood I believe...it's coming. Seems like its snowing 1000 feet in elevation less than previous weeks. Started at 4000 feet 2 weeks ago. Then 3000 last week...now 1470? At this pace we should be seeing snow in 2 weeks by the coast.
"

That is really not all that uncommon. They see snow at higher elev often months before it falls (if ever) in the Atlantic lowlands. I think you'll be luck if you see snow by the coast in the next two months.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

That is really not all that uncommon. They see snow at higher elev often months before it falls (if ever) in the Atlantic lowlands. I think you'll be luck if you see snow by the coast in the next two months.

Also that was in the Adirondacks which is way north of here. Even a low elevation city near there like Burlington VT is colder than the coldest parts of CT. Even Albany NY (to use something just south of the Adirondacks instead of north) is at best about the same as the coldest parts of CT.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Hmmm…

Today is the 21st….that is a ten day or so forecast. As I mentioned several times, anything beyond 96 hours (4 days) has a 50% chance of being totally wrong from what I have seen. I don’t know where you saw that next weekend will have temps below average…but even if some wild model had that output, it’s just a dart a board after 96 hours.

In the near term…I completely agree with AccuWeather - we'll see a fleeting cool shot on Friday (tomorrow) across the Tri-State/middle East Coast…with highs in the middle 50’s across most of Connecticut/Long Island (yes, there is a shot there could be a flurry in the very highest elevations of northwest CT/NW New Jersey/higher spots in the Hudson Valley). By Saturday, moderation will quickly take hold as the southerly flow strengthens ...and temps will be in the 60’s and 70’s for the next 7 days or so. A storm looks to come together (a 50/50 % chance) the middle of next week and head for the eastern Great Lakes, mostly rain but it could get cold enough for some snow up in the UP of MI and maybe the western side of the Lakes (not a good shot). The East Coast will see clouds and mild conditions as the low swings up into the Great Lakes. After that who knows.

There is a frost warning for northern Connecticut tonight however. The last time NWS station in far northern Connecticut (Bradley) reported a temp of 32 F (0 C) was May 13th (162 days ago). The last time the NWS station in southern Connecticut (Bridgeport) reported a temp of 32 F was March 27th (205 days ago). So tonight looks interesting.

Ok..well, I say temps Nov 1st to 3rd will be about 5 degrees below normal..we'll see what happens.

[Lowerdeck]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Oct 30th give or take 1 day and Nov. 3rd give or take 1 day...during these times its possible points in virginia could see flakes..nyc could get snow..

Here's my wishcast for Oct. 29-30, anywhere between Boston and Richmond - no precip.