[Cambium]

Here we go…

One model (usually the colder bias) is showing a Lake Effect Snow and a massive rush of cold air to come down… Freezing for us and snow possible with the clipper

Oct. 20 – 25…not sure what day…too far into future.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

Danbury dropped to 30 degrees as recently as May 11, 2010. Using that link I found other towns in the Danbury area that dropped to as low as 30 degrees that day as well. What temp do you consider a frost?

History : Weather Underground

It is a bit unfair to use Danbury as representative of Connecticut…it is along the NY state like west and north of most of the population areas along I-95 and I-91. Danbury is normally even colder than NWS Windsor Locks – 9 miles from the MA state line. Most of the population in Connectiuct is from Stamford to New Haven metro, then north to the CT Valley near Hartford.

Fact is that most of the NWS stations across southern Connecticut like Bridgeport, New Haven, New London, Groton…etc have not had a frost (32 F or lower) since March 27th, 2010. If there is no frost at any of these stations Saturady…a warm pattern will take hold for the next 12 to 20 days. So this would put several area stations across Connecticut and other parts of the Tri-State area with 210 frost free days this year.

[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Most of the population in Connectiuct is from Stamford to New Haven metro, then north to the CT Valley near Hartford.

I didn't know that population density determined how meteorologists reported (or skewed?) their findings. Responsible meteorologists (though I don't believe you're a meteorologist) include the whole picture instead of purposely omitting data recorded in the state to prove their agenda.

So I believe it would be accurate to say that based on andthentherewere3's findings, the last frost we had in the state was on May 11th, in multiple locations.

[Cambium]

Just to chime in here, every location has their records.. You can't use one location to determine a state in whole...not sure who's side I'm on with that statement....But i f someone is going to use an entire state, they need to use any location it happened in...just like colorado seeing its first snow...doesn't mean the entire state did but we have to associate the state with the event..

If there was a spot in CT that saw frost already we have to say CT received its first frost in Meriden....

P.S- Danbury's elevation Is so much higher than the coastal sections...
P.S.S- bridgeport hasn't received frost since March but other areas have. Period

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

I didn't know that population density determined how meteorologists reported (or skewed?) their findings. Responsible meteorologists (though I don't believe you're a meteorologist) include the whole picture instead of purposely omitting data recorded in the state to prove their agenda.

So I believe it would be accurate to say that based on andthentherewere3's findings, the last frost we had in the state was on May 11th, in multiple locations.

Ahhh, just read this with my BB.. Yes, andthentherewere3 is correct...you have to use any location if your going to make a statement like that..so CT's last frost was May because Meriden hit 33 in May..

What will put this argument to rest is if we can find out if there's a rule of thumb based on average elevation level. For instance state frost-freezing records are calculated for elevations 500feet above sea level and lower.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Just to chime in here, every location has their records.. You can't use one location to determine a state in whole...not sure who's side I'm on with that statement....But i f someone is going to use an entire state, they need to use any location it happened in...just like colorado seeing its first snow...doesn't mean the entire state did but we have to associate the state with the event..

If there was a spot in CT that saw frost already we have to say CT received its first frost in Meriden....

P.S- Danbury's elevation Is so much higher than the coastal sections...
P.S.S- bridgeport hasn't received frost since March but other areas have. Period

I was just trying to make the point that several areas of the state have not had a frost since March 27, 2010. I keep a min/max in my garden…my last frost was March 27th...so I think many areas along the I-95 corridor have been frost free since late March(considering the NWS Bridgeport data as well). I noticed the trees are still quite green along I-95 as well (I haven't been upstate , but I'm sure they are furthur along). Of course highland and inland areas have had a frost since March 27th…but these are typically more rural locations compared to the bigger metro's (Stamford, Bridgeport, New Haven, Groton/New London). So its fair to say maybe more people might not have had a frost in CT than have had a frost.

Tonight will be the coldest night state wide since late March (I think). If NWS reporting stations like Bridgeport, New Haven, Groton (my garden -lol)…etc fail to report a frost Monday morning…their will be no real cold air in the pattern until late October again from what the models are showing. So this means some spots in southen Connecticut will likley cross 200 frost free days this year. Hey, that's something to be happy about.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Just thought weather watchers would like to know the short term pattern looks to still be pretty calm and relatively warm. It appears as if there will be a system moving from the north Pacific into western Canada later this weekend. This upper level low (weak for the most part) will eventually dig more into the East during the second half of next week. This should turn the air a little cooler (highs upper 50’s F) across the northern Plains, Midwest, and upper New England/Northern NY State. However, points southward (including southern Connecticut/NYC/Long Island)…will see high temps still near 70 F with nights struggling to get below 50 F. Overall the typical steady, mild, sunny weather of an East Coast fall seems to be on tap for much of October. We will have to see how the pattern changes when the cold season starts in November.

It’s interesting to note that many NWS stations in the Atlantic lowlands from southern Rhode Island southward to eastern Virginia…have not had a frost since late March. None of the stations below have reported a frost since March 27th, 2010 (Richmond March 9th). It looks like after this Sunday (temps might fall into the upper 30's in a few spots)...there is little chance of any frost for the next 20 days. This would mean many stations in the Atlantic lowlands would have had 210 to 215 frost free days this year. No bad:

NWS – Bridgeport, CT (no frost since March 27th, 2010)
NWS – Central Park
NWS – Trenton, NJ
NWS – Provedence, RI
NWS – Atlantic City, NJ (no frost since March 24th, 2010)
NWS – Wilmington, DE
NWS – Baltimore, MD
NWS – Richmond, VA (no frost since March 9th, 2010)

Except for Providence and maybe Bridgeport for all of those areas the AVERAGE (i.e. "normal") date of last low of 32 or under is in late March or the first week of April (I believe for Central Park it is April 7, though that means it is almost equally likely as not that the last frost occurs before April 1).

It's also possible (and I'll use this year again as a good example) for an area slightly inland to have a "later than normal" last frost while the urban and coastal areas had their last frost "earlier than normal" in the same year. Central Park as you note had theirs on March 27 (with what I believe is an April 7 "average", so it came "early"), whereas Danbury had a 30 degree low in May (I think their "average" is at the very end of April, like April 30 or so) because after a lot of warm days there was an unusual night that was just below freezing inland but still a bit above on the coast (I think around 40 if I remember it right).

So every location has to be treated differently statistically.

[wavehunter007]

I just looked on the NWS NYC site...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
428 AM EDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...AREAS OF FROST LIKELY TONIGHT...

.A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF FROST.

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-NYZ067-068-091630-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FR.Y.0008.101010T0600Z-101010T1300Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-
428 AM EDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MID 30S TONIGHT. A FEW SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY EVEN REACH THE
FREEZING MARK. THESE CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FROST ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED AND HOUSE PLANTS SHOULD BE
BROUGHT INSIDE.

&&

$$


SO this is it... coastal stations will be pretty close ...but might escape frost (32 F/0C) . We'll see...

[wavehunter007]

It looks like there was no frost across most of the coastal NWS stations in the Tri-State area. My patio palm seems ok this morning, and most of the tender stuff seems unfazed. Here were the lowest hourly obs last night across the Tri-State area (most at 5/6 am). NWS will have the actual lows on Monday:

Bridgeport – 41 F
New Haven – 40 F
Hartford – 38 F
Danbury – 35 F
Meriden – 32 F
Groton – 37 F
NYC (Central Park) – 47 F
Trenton, NJ - 43 F
Atlantic City, NJ – 44 F

In Connecticut, it looks like Willimantic and Meriden had the lowest hourly temp at 32 F. My low on the Connecticut coast east of New Haven fell to 39.7 F. From the looks of it…no chance of frost across the Tri-State area again for a good 10 to 14 days. So my patio palm has a stay of execution - lol.

[Lowerdeck]

Bunch of frost up here. Willimantic hit 31 degrees, probably was close to that here. Worcester Airport at 1000 feet above sea level only went to 39 however.

This week looks sunny, except for Tuesday.

Yesterday I was at the Tri-State Weather Conference in Danbury. Lots of presentations on winter storms and hurricanes. Some of it was interesting, some of it was advanced for a MTR dropout like myself.

Earl got a bunch of attention in side discussions and in passing by media speakers - how news operations used that as a quest for ratings when the weather operations knew Earl was likely to miss and the NHC forecasts were quite well.