[Lowerdeck]

BOX isn't showing snow for where I am, and a slight chance of snow in the southern Worcester hills.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Snow is in the Air for thanksgiving. My oh my how things change in a matter of days..

Now back to my original post of potential for snow thursday.

I'm thinking thurs. Night if anything.. Will not be more than an inch for now..

I'm thinking Dec. 15th for accumulating but models showing around Dec. 3rd for a storm...Its amazing we can call these things 11-15days out!!!

Trust me…nowhere in the Tri-State area will see snow on Thanksgiving Day…or the day after.

Dec 15th: let’s see if the models can handle 72 hours in advance in making an accurate prediction. All them seem to do (as well as the marketing folks who control them)…is to throw "...." at the wall and hope it sticks eventually.

[HeadedWest]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Had I said rain storm you people would be worshiping me..

No. It's annoying.

Originally Posted by Cambium

Fun times are here

Fun times will arrive when you quit wishcasting here.

Look, you should join the Eastern WX board at Eastern US Weather Forums

You can join your fellow wishcaster snowhound model-huggers there and discuss your models endlessly.

Please stop doing it here. Please.

[Cambium]

POSTED 11-16-10 AT 9:39PM. ONLY 10 DAYS BEFORE....MY VERY FIRST POST REGARDING THE THANKSGIVING STORM.... LET ME REPEAT "Models getting consistant with a storm brewing in the NorthEast around Thanksgiving "

Looks to me I'll be right again. "around", "storm"...all words some people miss to read. And we will see Snow inland to boot.

Originally Posted by Cambium

Get your snow tires on. Buy your snowshoes. Clean your shovels. Models getting consistant with a storm brewing in the NorthEast around Thanksgiving most likely the Friday, Saturday or Sunday after.

This would be accumulating. The pattern has been a flip flop of cold warm cold warm, we're going to flip back to cold after 25th. If thats the case and this storm does develop, that will spell snow.

http://news12.blogs.com/paul_piorek/

November 22, 2010

[JayCT]

Stop the bickering and return to the discussion of weather. If you do not like someone's post then don't read it. JayCT, Moderator

[wavehunter007]

From Meteorologist Joe Lundeberg;

“Behind this storm, the cold front will move quickly into the Great Lakes and western Ohio Valley overnight and end this incredible warmth - for now. That front that gets off the Northeast and mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow night, bringing temperatures back in line with normal in much of this area for the big travel day on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, back in the Plains, a new storm will organize and head for the Midwest, much as the GFS was suggesting last week at times. That delays the arrival of the true arctic air in a broader fashion until it passes. So, for the southern Plains, that means Thursday is the day of transition from warm to colder. In the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, it means another surge of warmth before the cold takes over Thanksgiving night and Friday.

On the East Coast = you get the leftovers come Friday afternoon and Friday night into the weekend, where it will definitely be colder. However, the cold will have lost some of lost a bit of its punch in the long journey, and it appears to be a candidate for rather easy modification early next week. “



AccuWeather.com - Joe Lundberg | Two Surges of Cold This Week (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/lundberg/story/41968/two-surges-of-c.asp - broken link)

[Cambium]

Yeah..this flip flop is driving me nuts...its going to stay warm till mid december I think...(Upper 40s I m50s) but another chance at seeing snow Around the 5th

[Cambium]

DECEMBER 4-6 POSSIBLE 1ST MAJOR WINTER STORM OF SEASON!!

Models being consistant with a storm... according to 1 run on with this NOAA forecast it shows at least 8" of snow for NYC. Lets hope the cold air is in place for it

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

DECEMBER 4-6 POSSIBLE 1ST MAJOR WINTER STORM OF SEASON!!

Models being consistant with a storm... according to 1 run on with this NOAA forecast it shows at least 8" of snow for NYC. Lets hope the cold air is in place for it

I think this might be yet again…another computer generated fantasy. One of the (many) problems that long range computer models have are they fail to see patterns that seem to be setting up synoptically:

Since the cold season began in early November the pattern has been for the action (snow, cold highs moving south from Canada…etc) to be in the West…while the far east/East Coast has been on the warm side. This pattern has helped keep eastern Canada warmer than normal (with no snow cover)…and the Atlantic Ocean warmer than normal. As I mentioned back in late September…Atlantic Ocean sst are a huge player in winter weather in the Tri-State/Middle Atlantic region: The warmer the Atlantic is from North Carolina southward…the stronger the Atlantic ridge is in winter (cause and effect). This will send most lows on a path from Texas to the eastern Great Lakes. We have seen this already (and will see it again this week).

If the ridge stays in place…it will almost certainly keep sending most lows toward the Great Lakes in winter. Until there is a true sustained, bitter cold air mass, that can push the warmer Atlantic waters out to mid ocean, and break down the West Atlantic Ridge…I really think the odds favor little chance of much snow along the East Coast. Here is a quick image of temps overlaid with the storm track so far this year. One look it’s obvious where all the warm air is (the eastern USA) and where all the cold air is (the western USA).





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[Cambium]

Damn LaNina...I miss Nino already.

Still early...3 more months of winter to get through.