[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

Yes, it's definitely not one-sided. I think the problems is that some don't see it that way. Someone posts a forecast that isn't well-liked and the mud-slinging begins. It gets tiresome and predictable, it would be much more pleasant if we could all play nice.

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

I'm happy to see that next week's temps might go up rather than back down. Bring it! Maybe I can put off buying oil for a few more weeks. Although the way the prices keep rising, I may not want to.

Based on what the pattern looks like…I tend to think your heating needs are just about finished for the most part. We should see one more modestly cool day in the Tri-State area (Tue) with highs near 40 F and overnight lows in the 20’s…then the flow turns southward and the warmth air invades the region. Highs from Wed to Saturday should hit from 55 to 65 F across the whole region. After that, some showers by Sunday, but high temps should still be into the 50’s across the Tri-State area. When you average in the increasing daily highs, and the retreating cold, I tend to think that we might see only a another day or two with highs in the 40’s. I guess will find out.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Cambium

While some spots will continue to see 20s & 30s at night the High temps are making its way into the 60s.

Here's the Euro forecast for High Temp next Monday. Its long range but I thought some of you might like to see this since it will be near record breaking. Lows 70s for 90% of CT.

Last Red color shade is low 70s.
Light purple is mid 70s.

Southern NJ "could" hit 80.

Danbury normal for that day is 47
Record high is 64 in 1977

Bridgeport Normal is 46
Record High is 61 in 1973

Hartford, CT Normal is 46
Record High is 69 in 1977

White Plains Normal is 45
Record high is 69 in 1967

This weather pattern makes zero sense. I've completely stopped trying to figure out why every month is now 5-10F above average. All averages are thrown out the window. Short-term the model is too warm due to the snowcover in northern New England, though.

[JayCT]

I have deleted a number of off topic posts. Again, please stick to the topic of this thread which is weather in Connecticut. JayCT, Moderator

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

This weather pattern makes zero sense. I've completely stopped trying to figure out why every month is now 5-10F above average. All averages are thrown out the window. Short-term the model is too warm due to the snowcover in northern New England, though.

Just another note about “averages”…and what I think they really mean;

We had a local long time forecaster Dr Mel (who recently passed away) that used to say a lot of profound things about our local climate (at least I thought so); One of them was that the 30, 60, 90 etc, year averages that are computed into a single numeric value …are really just an average of the extremes in the middle latitudes. Lacking the stability of the tropics or the poles - most (not all) middle latitude climates often have a modestly wide range of mean temps both positive and negative. In our case in Tri-State/Middle Atlantic – add into the mix a warm subtropical ocean to out south, a source of very cold air to our north, and a bending jet stream from November through early April…and the swings from one winter to the next can be very large.

I don’t know about 10 F MMT above average…but NWS Bridgeport finished this past February + 6.3 F above their normal 32 F MMT. Yet, as I remember - the standard deviation (+ or -) for NWS Bridgeport - is something like 4.3 F for February (this over only 30 years worth of data). Try to imagine if you were 15,000 yrs old (or 125, 000 yrs old)…imagine the standard deviation that you could work into the long term MMT.

Most of the USA (except the West Coast) where in a warm pattern this winter…it wont be the last time. Just as the last two winters were colder and snowier than normal in our area – they were not the last two winters that will be below normal. What I’ve always tried to point out is that the media in their rush to keep us “tuned in” ….seem to only show us one side of that coin.

[Mike 75]

What's up with the brush fire alerts I've seen for later this week? It's not like we're in a drought in the middle of July. Is this just another piece of hype the media is using to keep us tuned in, or is this a real danger?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Mike 75

What's up with the brush fire alerts I've seen for later this week? It's not like we're in a drought in the middle of July. Is this just another piece of hype the media is using to keep us tuned in, or is this a real danger?

Interesting. Thanks for the heads up. I wonder if its because humidity levels will be very low and winds high. People using firewood should keep this alert in mind if they do issue it.

[GraniteStater]

The last subzero lows of the winter will be possible in our region tonight. We've only had a few lows below zero the entire winter anyway.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Interesting. Thanks for the heads up. I wonder if its because humidity levels will be very low and winds high. People using firewood should keep this alert in mind if they do issue it.

I wondered that too, never saw that up during "winter" before.....

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

The last subzero lows of the winter will be possible in our region tonight. We've only had a few lows below zero the entire winter anyway.

I don't think there's been ANY south of you in NH for that matter....


BTW, looks like a "sub 50" low for Saturday at least according to the NWS (mid-upper 40s), but then it soars again (60 and up for Mon/Tues next week...also now showing near 60 for tomorrow and well in the 60s on Thursday). I do honestly think for the most part today is the last real "cold" day of any kind but my point was I don't think EVERY day is going to be 60ish quite yet.....

[trishguard]

Originally Posted by CarolinaOnMyMind

I still think we need a separate thread for winter weather lovers in addition to just this current general weather thread. It should be obvious by now that the current format is not working and that there are opposing agendas/biases as well as personalities that cant coexist peacefully on the same thread. There's always the constant digging or bashing that comes with these differences.

Having two threads isn't going to keep anyone with an opposing view from posting in either one.

Back on topic: I wasn't quite prepared for how cold it was yesterday. Yikes! Bring on the warmth. And I believe this weekend starts daylight savings. We are gonna lose an hour of sleep.

[andthentherewere3]

Originally Posted by Mike 75

What's up with the brush fire alerts I've seen for later this week? It's not like we're in a drought in the middle of July. Is this just another piece of hype the media is using to keep us tuned in, or is this a real danger?

I've seen it in past winters over the years, but not many. We've had so little precip this winter that everything is much drier than usual.