[mikelizard860]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

98-99 was a strong La Nina winter with a strong cold event in the Pacific. This 11-12 winter featured a weak to moderate La Nina. I just don't see much of a correlation between the two winters. 11-12 has actually had a much longer warm streak than 98-99 strong event and this looks to continue indefinitely. Like I mentioned earlier, I have studied many analog years and this current pattern is nearly unprecedented for its overall warmth and lack of pattern change.

There's a huge correlation between the two years regardless of la nina or el nino. The correlation isWAY ABOVE normal temps and WAY BELOW normal snowfall and the fact that the pattern was consistent and lasted for a long time. This is not unprecented, just rare.

.Total snowfall in nyc 97-98(as corrected by above poster) was 5.5 inches. . NYC Central Park Monthly Snowfall

Cornell News: Warmest Winter

1997-98 was second warmest winter on record. 1931 was warmest.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by mikelizard860

There's a huge correlation between the two years regardless of la nina or el nino. The correlation isWAY ABOVE normal temps and WAY BELOW normal snowfall and the fact that the pattern was consistent and lasted for a long time
. Total snowfall in nyc 97-98(as corrected by above poster) was 5.5 inches. NYC Central Park Monthly Snowfall

Cornell News: Warmest Winter

1997-98 was second warmest winter on record. 1931 was warmest.

OK, 97-98 and 11-12 winters are comparable for warmth and lack of snow. I think some are getting the 97-98 and 98-99 winters confused. 97-98 was the the record strong El Nino episode and 98-99 was the very strong La Nina episode.

[mikelizard860]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

OK, 97-98 and 11-12 winters are comparable for warmth and lack of snow. I think some are getting the 97-98 and 98-99 winters confused. 97-98 was the the record strong El Nino episode and 98-99 was the very strong La Nina episode.

This was over a decade ago so I missed it by a year. lol I'm suprised I even remember it off the top of my head. The only reason I just remember it is because there was such a ridiculously little amount of snow and incredible warmth!

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by mikelizard860

This was over a decade ago so I missed it by a year. lol I'm suprised I even remember it off the top of my head. The only reason I just remember it is because there was such a ridiculously little amount of snow and incredible warmth!

I lived in Kansas City, MO area during the 97-98 winter season and it was in the 50s, 60s, and 70s for highs for a plurality of days, most of January. Zonal westerly & southwesterly flow= chinook winds off the Rockies, major warming.

[7 Wishes]

2001-02 was another very warm winter. And (again, just because I know it's stats well) using Central Park as a base the ONLY measurable snowfall they got the entire winter was a 3.5" fall in mid-January. It still stands as the #2 least seasonal snowfall (next to 2.8" in 1972-73.....


I also like 1979-80 as a comparative base as like this winter:

1) There was an October snowfall (on October 9!)

2) The South had a couple of record snowfalls while the Northeast had almost nothing (in an earlier post I said Central Park got 9" total that winter, I was a little off, I checked it was 12.8". Still very small compared to the record 40+" in Norfolk, VA).

[andthentherewere3]

Originally Posted by Cambium

So this time of year I start looking for extreme on the other end. We wont see 70s this week but we'll probably see 60 a couple times. Then after this weekend, next week features more 50s-60s as common.

This was the warmest day on the latest Euro12z. Now we'll start to see the coast be cooler than inland because of the cooler water influence.

Wednesday March 13th. (Loong range, anything can change)


Other thing to note is latest GFS wants to throw some snow down around the 15th. GFS is still nuts. lol We'll see if it keeps showing up.

There's just nothing happening next couple weeks. Couple of rain events and a weak coastal low rain event.

I'm so glad to see this long-range forecast you posted on the 6th didn't come to fruition. I'm seeing 60's forecast every single day this week, sunny and 65 for the 15th. The GFS wasn't even close. And no real rain forecast yet, it's just going to get drier and drier at this point. I remember the mild winter of 97/98, and one of the summers around that time we had a drought. I wonder if the drought followed that mild winter?

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

I'm so glad to see this long-range forecast you posted on the 6th didn't come to fruition. I'm seeing 60's forecast every single day this week, sunny and 65 for the 15th. The GFS wasn't even close. And no real rain forecast yet, it's just going to get drier and drier at this point. I remember the mild winter of 97/98, and one of the summers around that time we had a drought. I wonder if the drought followed that mild winter?

What’s really nice is that not only do daily highs look nice this week (60’s in the Tri-State area)…daily lows should stay above freezing, at least in southern Ct/Long Island/NYC. The forecast lows for New Haven for example, show 37 F (tonight)….44 F (Mon night)…44 F (Tue night)…39 F (Wed night)…42 F (Thur night)…and 42 F (Fri night). That should really help to get things blooming and with the showers Tue night, lawns and grass should really green up quick. This is a bit early, as I think we don't have normal lows above freezing until late in March on average in southern Connecticut.

As far as drought…from what I’ve read (Ludlum), one of the biggest long term droughts of all time in our local area (CT/NY/NJ) was from 1961 – 1966;It started with a long hot and dry summer in 1961 – from Virginia to Rhode Island the drought reached severe proportions in late 1963. A little rainfall eased conditions in the cold season of 63/64…but then by May as the Azores Bermuda High strengthened, it moved to a spot right off the lower East Coast and kept relentless hot, sunny, and bone dry weather over the Atlantic states from South Carolina to Rhode Island until late October. June, July, and August 1965 had something like only 30% of normal rainfall in NYC and by the end of 1965 – NYC had something like just 45% of normal rainfall! So while not common in a humid climate like ours – severe drought is not unheard of in the Tri-State/Middle Atlantic. It seems that winters where the southeast ridge (winter Bermuda high) stays strong off the Florida coast (alot like this past winter) - then builds in early, can sometimes lead to dry conditions along the East Coast.

So it could get interesting soon...

[jp03]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

I'm so glad to see this long-range forecast you posted on the 6th didn't come to fruition. I'm seeing 60's forecast every single day this week, sunny and 65 for the 15th. The GFS wasn't even close. And no real rain forecast yet, it's just going to get drier and drier at this point. I remember the mild winter of 97/98, and one of the summers around that time we had a drought. I wonder if the drought followed that mild winter?

Wow you can't get better March weather than this. Amazing. How can you beat 60's and dry...beautiful..enjoy it.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

I'm so glad to see this long-range forecast you posted on the 6th didn't come to fruition. I'm seeing 60's forecast every single day this week, sunny and 65 for the 15th. The GFS wasn't even close. And no real rain forecast yet, it's just going to get drier and drier at this point. I remember the mild winter of 97/98, and one of the summers around that time we had a drought. I wonder if the drought followed that mild winter?

Yup. I'm sure we all saw that coming. That's why I mentioned the GFS was nuts. It was only that one time. Seems it does better with warm dry weather than cold and snow. I wonder if they will be making improvments to the model this year. It showed Waay to many big snowstorms in long range all winter so they'll have to figure out what data it was being bias to. Maybe bias to blocking ?

Looking at my garden wondering if I can cheat the last frost date this year. Lol. We might not have frost in April at this pace.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Yup. I'm sure we all saw that coming. That's why I mentioned the GFS was nuts. It was only that one time. Seems it does better with warm dry weather than cold and snow. I wonder if they will be making improvments to the model this year. It showed Waay to many big snowstorms in long range all winter so they'll have to figure out what data it was being bias to. Maybe bias to blocking ?

Looking at my garden wondering if I can cheat the last frost date this year. Lol. We might not have frost in April at this pace.

The only thing that can reverse the trend is a strongly positive PNA and a western ridge. It could happen down the road. The average last freeze in NH is the middle of May so I'm wondering what your thoughts were for the interior northern sections based on the current crazy pattern?