[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Here is the current radar - looks like the precip is just about done in the Tri-State area. There appears to be alot of holes in CT and NJ is dry. Zero snow on the ground here along I-95 in the New Haven/shoreline area :




Looks like temps stay above freezing for us in far southern and coastal CT, so just rain

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
440 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ON THE BACK END OF THE FIRST MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. JUST RAIN AT THE COAST WITH SFC TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. INTERIOR AREAS ARE FORECAST TO TRANSITION OF FROM A SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN TO PRIMARILY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TONIGHT.


SFC TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING WILL MAKE THE PRECIP TYPE MORE RAIN. SEEING MORE OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS FORECAST...ADDING A LITTLE MORE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STAYING BELOW TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AN ADDITIONAL 2-3
INCHES PRIMARILY IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT INTO EARLY
EVENING. THIS WILL BE SEEN PRIMARILY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND
SECONDARY ROADWAYS AS WELL AS GRASSY SURFACES. MOST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE DONE BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH JUST
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THEREAFTER. DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF
SECONDARY LOW...PRECIP MAY BECOME MORE PERIODIC WITH SOME BREAKS
FROM TIME TO TIME THIS EVENING

Looks like inland areas got some snow today...sun angle fails to do its job again!! oh well.

[Mixum]

ignore feature works great!

[wavehunter007]

Hey, winter/snow fans don’t be mad at me…I warned you that there would be no winter storm in the Tri-State on March 1st. Those in the northwest sectors are lucky you even got a few slushy inches before tonight’s rain melts it all. Here in southern/coastal CT ZERO snow on the ground…and ZERO snow was observed. That is what happens when you follow the hypers…or it could be that solar angle.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Hey, winter/snow fans don’t be mad at me…I warned you that there would be no winter storm in the Tri-State on March 1st. Those in the northwest sectors are lucky you even got a few slushy inches before tonight’s rain melts it all. Here in southern/coastal CT ZERO snow on the ground…and ZERO snow was observed. That is what happens when you follow the hypers…or it could be that solar angle.

Its ok..the sun angle didn't do its job..dont be mad. I thought it didn't snow in March...guess it does.

[ctwhitechin]

Pouring hard in central ct right now....wow this would have been some amount of snow

[andthentherewere3]

Originally Posted by jp03

Its ok..the sun angle didn't do its job..dont be mad. I thought it didn't snow in March...guess it does.

LOL, if today's snowfall is all we get for March I wouldn't brag about the accumulation. Did it even snow today? On the news they were showing ice in northern Ct. overnight. Yesterday was still February. Geez, the venom here from one or two snow lovers is pathetic. Is everyone here over the age of 13? I might look into that ignore feature myself. But then there would few polite posts for me to read...

[7 Wishes]

All time warmest February in both Central Park and Bridgeport!

Central Park averaged 40.9 degrees (BTW, average for yesterday was 40 so Leap Day actually lowered it by 0.1), breaking a 3-way tie of 40.6 that occurred in 2002, 1998 and 1984.

Bridgeport SHATTERED it's record, it came in at 38.7-deg, it's record was 37.3 deg in 1997 (which was CPK's 3rd warmest ever Feb. at 40.0).

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Here is the current radar - looks like the precip is just about done in the Tri-State area.

Actually, it was not picking up drizzle and very light rain. Around 6pm I drove from New Rochelle up to Peekskill on both ends of Westchester and I had drizzle and rain the whole way even though the radar showed nothing. Same thing on the way back around 9pm.

But what I find really interesting is how some inland areas got mostly rain and others got mostly snow, it wasn't simply a coast vs. inland thing. I expected to see SOME snow falling or on the ground on my drive up and back and saw none, though Newburgh, NY (about 20 miles north of where I was) and Danbury (about 30 miles east of where I was but about the same distance inland from the coast) definitely had snow/snow cover.

[JayCT]

I have received several complaints about the posts on this thread. The bickering needs to stop or I am going to close the thread. Please return to the original topic which is the weather. JayCT, Moderator

[andthentherewere3]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

But what I find really interesting is how some inland areas got mostly rain and others got mostly snow, it wasn't simply a coast vs. inland thing. I expected to see SOME snow falling or on the ground on my drive up and back and saw none, though Newburgh, NY (about 20 miles north of where I was) and Danbury (about 30 miles east of where I was but about the same distance inland from the coast) definitely had snow/snow cover.

Yes, it was strange how it varied from town to town. I think we got lucky, the way it first started out I was afraid it would be another unexpected snow storm like the last one. And now I'm seeing mid-50's for Wednesday with possible thunder? This March could be very interesting.

[Cambium]

This is one Looong Post. I'm letting it serve as a learning tool for me to see how models performed over the last several days regarding this storm.

Overall, not bad to predict a storm from 2 weeks out. The players on the field didnt come together for a big snowstorm. Too many players this time.

Looks like I was set on rain for coast, snow north 2 days out.
Euro was horrible with this storm but did have correct snow totals from 3 days out yet still too far south with them.

qpf amounts started too high above 1" but were correct between .50-.80" overall.


Date of post is underline.

Summary:
GFS showed Snow 10-12 days out
flooding rain event between 6-9 days out.
trended colder snow to Rain south 84 / Snow north 4-5 days out
Rain south MA Turnpike/Snow North 1-3 days out

EURO showed no storm 7-9 days out
Alot of Snow for all 5-7 days out
Snow north 84, snow to rain south 1-4 days out

2/18/12 - 11 days out

Originally Posted by Cambium

At least the Last GFS run is keeping its consistancy as in... JUST NUTS
Below normal temps including sub zero by end of month.

Rain to Snow event twice and a big 2 foot snowstorm by March 1st.

{enter sarcasm here}

2/20/12 - 9 days out

Originally Posted by Cambium

March 1, 2012 Storm update:
Latest GFS just turned into a warm flooding rain event. LOL!! It will be the usual back and forth but the storm is still showing up. In fact the latest has a strong front come through not an individual storm.

Couple of small waves this week and next but not a big deal. Some drizzle, some flurries.

2/22/12 - 7 days out

Originally Posted by Cambium

Uh oh.. What are the odds that the GFS showed this (now doesnt)
The Euro didnt show it (now does) and for same time frame.

GFS has been horrible all year showing these storms then not happening but Euro has had a better track record not showing this big hits.

Here's the latest Euro from today. Storm comes from TN Valley moves NorthEast at a perfect track that would give southern CT 12"+. Northern CT 6-10"

Here's how the snow totals look (BASED ON THIS RUN ONLY)

2/23/12-6 days out

Originally Posted by Cambium

Sorry, not ignoring you. Just dont have any updates. Storm still there but still too far to determine snow or not, latest show rain again and not as much liquid. We'll get better sense this weekend.

2/25/12 - 5 Days out

Originally Posted by Cambium

March 1, 2012 Storm Update: (5 Days away)Latest Euro is colder and shows snows all the way to coast. 12"+ for MA. 6-9" for Northern CT.

Remember, upton only serves bottom 4 counties.

" P-TYPE SLIGHTLY PROBLEMATIC...AS DEPENDING
UPON EXACTLY HOW MUCH WARMER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT...COULD SEE MAINLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

NOTING HOW THIS PAST EVENT PLAYED OUT AND CLIMATOLOGY

1035MB SFC HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO FUNNEL LLVL COLD AIR SOUTH
INTO THE REGION FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY PERIOD. THE 00Z EURO MODEL APPEARS TO PAINT THIS LLVL COLD AIR DAMMING "

Euro transfers the storm near Great lakes to the developing storm that formed onear Del Marva and moves up the coast.

Snow Totals from that Euro run last night.

I think The pattern has changed..(little too late for Winter) but I am seeing the upper air pattern similar to that of Novembers/Decembers.

2/26/12 - 4 days out

Originally Posted by Cambium

March 1, 2012 SnowStorm Update
ALL MODELS TRENDING COLDER.

The Euro overnight continued its hold. Widespread 6-10". Starting to believe this will be a plowable(and maybe major) snow event now. Is everyone ready??

The GFS has trended towards the Euro as mentioned in Uptons report below.

Here's an animation of the Euro.. Surace map on left, snow totals on right.
2 Huge factors will play a role.. High pressure to north, Mid Atlantic Low moving up.

Boston:
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ON ALL MODELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL WAY DOWN TO S COAST AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING WED INTO THU. HOWEVER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DURING DAY SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS CT...RI AND SE MA/ASIDE FROM HILLY TERRAIN/.

Upton:
THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/CMC-GLOBAL WITH THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A TAD COLDER AS WELL. WHAT HAPPENS IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL IN LARGE PART BE DETERMINED BY THE STRENGTH AND AMOUNT OF DAMMING FROM THE AROUND 1032 HPA HIGH FORECAST TO BE OVER QUEBEC IN THIS TIME FRAME. WITH ALL MODELS NOW AGREEING THAT THE MULTIPLE COASTAL LOWS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL PASS TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND...AND TRENDING COLDER...THERE IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THOUGH THAT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SOME MIXING IN OF SLEET AND POSSIBLY RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...

2/27/12 - 2 days out

Originally Posted by Cambium

Snowstorm Update:

No changes guys. Snow will start Wednesday afternoon.(mix or rain near coast), change to all snow and pick up in intensity Wednesday night, then Thursday morning a mix bag for Merrit south but change back to all snow by Thursday afternoon.

I know not everyone in CT CityData reads this thread but I hope they are ready for a horrible commute Wednesday evening and Thursday morning.

As far as amounts...I continue to see .75-1.00" liquid printed so at least half foot is not out of question.

Nobody can predict weather, so its always best to prepare for it. What is being mentioned is whats being shown by all models(not made up) but mother nature always has last word.

Actual Snowfall: Feb. 29 7am to March 1st 7am only.