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Old 10-05-2011, 05:25 PM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA - Seattle, WA - Manila, PH
457 posts, read 905,104 times
Reputation: 569

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Accuweather released their Winter outlook.

Details and more graphs with link. I 70% agree the heaviest snows will occur interior this year...and that there will be many warms up for the NorthEast coastal areas.

80 degrees in January will work. Say, for half the month, and 60s the other half. I'm not greedy.
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Old 10-05-2011, 06:44 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
posted Sept. 25th.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
I'm going to say first frost will be beginning of October north of Merrit. Mid October south of Merrit. First freeze should come beginning of November ....
Well well well...I'm wrong... Bring your plants in Litchfield.

NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TORRINGTON
400 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY. THE FROST ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW 32 DEGREES
TONIGHT ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A KILLING FROST ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...BRING TO AN
END THE 2011 GROWING SEASON.
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Old 10-06-2011, 06:28 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,363,775 times
Reputation: 2157
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
posted Sept. 25th.


Well well well...I'm wrong... Bring your plants in Litchfield.

NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TORRINGTON
400 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY. THE FROST ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW 32 DEGREES
TONIGHT ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A KILLING FROST ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...BRING TO AN
END THE 2011 GROWING SEASON.
Actually, for them (NW Hills of Connecticut) as well as NW NJ – a frost before October 5th is climatological. As you well know, the higher elevation (many places above 1500 feet in Litchfield County), the distance from the modifying effects of the Atlantic, and the fresher the cold air masses that come down from Canada…all contribute to Litchfield getting a frost before much of Connecticut. I would not be suprised to see temps touch below 30 F in the highest elevations in NW CT.

Here on the coast, I think we'll get into the middle 30's to 40 F on Friday morning. After that, I think southern Connecticut should not see any real chance of frost untill the 3rd week of October.
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Old 10-06-2011, 10:19 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Summary next 15 days.

Today till next Tuesday - High Pressure dominates bringing Dry weather. Day time highs ranging between 65-75. night time lows mostly 50s few times 40s. Weekend looks to be warmest.

October 12, 13, 14, 15 - Tropical moisture. System forms near Florida (could get Tropical Storm status) goes up the coast and goes inland south of us towards PA and Buffalo. Total rain Im thinking between 3-5 inches.

October 16 High presure builds in again for just 2 days.

October 18 A strong Cold front comes through bringing Rain to us, snow to mountains in NY, VT and even MA.(greylock maybe even wet flakes in Northern CT)

October 21st a system comes from Great Lakes moves to the coast with a negative tilt trough. Snows all the way to coast. 2-4" snow for upstate NY/PA.

* Anything after October 15th is based on the latest 06z & is subject to change.
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Old 10-06-2011, 03:20 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
Actually, for them (NW Hills of Connecticut) as well as NW NJ – a frost before October 5th is climatological. As you well know, the higher elevation (many places above 1500 feet in Litchfield County), the distance from the modifying effects of the Atlantic, and the fresher the cold air masses that come down from Canada…all contribute to Litchfield getting a frost before much of Connecticut. I would not be suprised to see temps touch below 30 F in the highest elevations in NW CT.

Here on the coast, I think we'll get into the middle 30's to 40 F on Friday morning. After that, I think southern Connecticut should not see any real chance of frost untill the 3rd week of October.
And on that note.... lol...Just an advisory for now. You gotta admit...I was close even if it doesnt happen.

Frost Advisory

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-NYZ067-068-070800-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FR.Y.0003.111007T0600Z-111007T1200Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-
317 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR CONNECTICUT AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY.
* HAZARDS...AREAS OF FROST.
* TEMPERATURES...LOW TO MID 30S.
* TIMING...2 AM THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF NO MEASURES
ARE TAKEN TO PROTECT THEM.
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Old 10-06-2011, 06:27 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
49 degrees at 8:15pm..Temp is dropping at a rate of 7 degrees per hour. Bundle up out there. :-) It was 70 at 5:15pm.
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Old 10-07-2011, 05:41 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Well that was fun..no frost but a shot of fresh air for 2 nights.

Summer like conditions possible in a few days. NYC south could even see 80s.
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Old 10-07-2011, 07:26 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,363,775 times
Reputation: 2157
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Well that was fun..no frost but a shot of fresh air for 2 nights.

Summer like conditions possible in a few days. NYC south could even see 80s.
I was a bit shocked that temps didn’t fall a bit lower myself:

It looks like (based on the hourly obs) that most of the Connecticut coast/Long Island/NYC/coastal NJ only fell into the low to mid 40’s…while interior Connecticut fell into the upper 30’s – so there was not a huge difference between coastal areas and far inland areas. Both Hartford and New Haven had the same hourly low at 5:00 am – 42 F. My low was 39 F.

As far as this weekend and into next week, the high will expand in strength today and tonight as the winds shift to a more southwest flow. Thus, we should see bone dry conditions with blazing sunshine of the awhile before the high breaks down. Highs should be from middle 70’s to low 80’s across the region in the coming days.

The next few days might finally be the last beach days of the season in the Tri-State area, so we had better enjoy it.
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Old 10-07-2011, 09:54 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
I was a bit shocked that temps didn’t fall a bit lower myself:
Any idea why? Maybe the dew points werent low enough? Last night was supposed to be colder than the night before but it was the opposite.

It hit 40 in Westport early Thursday morning (4am) but this morning it only went to 42 and took longer (6:30am)
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Old 10-07-2011, 11:46 AM
 
Location: Woburn, MA / W. Hartford, CT
6,129 posts, read 5,098,910 times
Reputation: 4112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Any idea why? Maybe the dew points werent low enough? Last night was supposed to be colder than the night before but it was the opposite.

It hit 40 in Westport early Thursday morning (4am) but this morning it only went to 42 and took longer (6:30am)
They were saying (and showing via satellite photos) that clouds associated with that pesky low, now in the northern maritimes, rotated southward over VT, western MA, and interior CT. That explains the not-so-low temps.
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