[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I think there are some errors in that data.

I would use the National Weather Service. Here are the official dates of the first frosts in the Tri-State area:

NWS WIndsor Locks - October 9th
NWS Danbury – October 13th
NWS Norwich – October 15th
NWS Stratford – November 5th
NWS Central Park – November 20th

National Weather Service Climate

I thought that looked strange for 1st frost in September. I always knew it was October but then I figured maybe the Northern Tier its possible. The source link is on the pic so it wasnt made up. Guess they need to adjust.

[Cambium]

Near 80 degrees for Vermont next few days.

Nice map showing our current weather pattern from NWS Burlington, VT...a huge upper level low over the Midwest and an upper level ridge of high pressure offshore is bringing a warm and humid air mass into the northeast...

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Will first let me say ...I pray for normal conditions every year. Global climate change terrifies me (all kidding aside). I like the USA and world climate just like it is now! I get the best of both worlds just as things are: I enjoy the climate of the Tri-State area from April though November...then get to spend time in tropical southern Florida/islands in the cold season. I can get in my car, get on I-95 and drive north and see snow in Maine or Atlantic Canada...or drive south and see coconut palms in south Florida. I hope things never change in terms of our climate on the East Coast, or for that matter the world.

However, more and more it seems the heat/humidity of summer is fading into fall, esp from the Tri-State area southward. That "variability" you speak of, is fading in fall weather on the middle East Coast. That concerns me. My theory on WHY October and November seem to getting warmer - is that it’s taking longer and longer for snowcover to develop in the Boreal latitudes of Canada (between 50 and 60 north latitude) in early fall. For it to get cold in the northern USA….the cold air masses need to develop in Canada (the USA is too far south to develop cold airmass – even in the middle of winter). If the higher latitudes of Canada keep experiencing record warm temps…record minimum sea -ice levels in the Arctic…and a longer and longer transition time from the arctic summer to the arctic winter…down here in the northern USA we will see less and less chances of any early cool weather.

As to the current pattern that looks develop over the USA for much of October – I think Brett Anderson is right on the mark. I do see a few fleeting cooler nights in early October (it will still stay well above freezing across most areas in the Tri-State region)….but beyond that…I think it is wishful thinking to look for any sustained cooler weather in early/mid October. As long as Canada continues to experience above normal temps likr it has been in Sept…down here in the USA we will NOT see cool/cold weather, it’s that simple. Yes, Sept 2011 will end not even close to being inside the top ten warmest…however it hardly felt like a "fall month". I was at Rocky Neck beach on Saturday – it was 77F…the water was 70 F…and with the strong sun and humid flow off the ocean...it hardly felt like “fall” ...more like June - lol.

It’s just a guess – but I’ll bet that with SST still near 70 F around the Tri-State area… coastal Connecticut, Long Island, and coastal New Jersey will not see a frost till mid November. We’ll see

A few comments:

First off, Wavehunter's first freeze dates are correct. So first frost in mid-Nov is not all that freaky, in fact for NYC itself it's a bit below normal and there have been a few recent warm years where the first sub-32 degree temp occurred in early December even.

And I was talking about September and October historically NOT being unusually warm in recent decades (not unusually cold either though), whereas every other month of the year has mostly been "warmer" since 1980 (May is somewhat of an exception but there's even a warming trend there). All the other months except Sept. and Oct. at least half of the "top 10 warmest" occurred since 1990.

I think the rest of what you say about warm SST and warm temps in Canada keeping us from getting really really cold right away is sound though.

[Cambium]

Looking at the latest... No question in my mind that some mountains will see snow this coming weekend.

All it means for CT is 40s at night and 60s during the day.

For now we'll have to get through Amazon type weather with the surge in mosquitos .

[Slipperman]

80's again tomorrow. getting sick of this.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Looking at the latest... No question in my mind that some mountains will see snow this coming weekend.

All it means for CT is 40s at night and 60s during the day.

For now we'll have to get through Amazon type weather with the surge in mosquitos .

Saturday may be only 50s during the day. NWS has high of 60 and low of 44 for Central Park. But yeah, most of this week is crazy "tropical" for last week of Sept.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Saturday may be only 50s during the day. NWS has high of 60 and low of 44 for Central Park. But yeah, most of this week is crazy "tropical" for last week of Sept.

I admit, as much as I like sunny and sultry weather (and hate cold/cloudy/snow – temps under 50 F), I too need a break from living in the tropics (lol). Since late May we have been in this deep tropical southerly flow. The summer of 2011 with thunderstorms, tropical downpours, Hurricane Irene, heat, steam, record rains, flooding…etc - will long be remembered as the summer when that old East Coast monsoon just wouldn’t quit (lol).

By around Thursday after the front moves through, we should see some milder weather work into the pattern… and the humidity will drop way off as the southerly flow finally relaxes. In fact, I think from Friday into next weekend…the weather looks like it will be “picture perfect” in the Tri-State region; Highs should be around 60 - 65 F, nights in the 40’s , dry, lower humidity, and blazing sunshine. A zonal flow should keep our temps mild (highs between 60 and 70 F ) the first two weeks of October, but 80’s and steamy weather looks like it shouldn’t make a comeback to levels we have now.

Like they say in tropical/subtropical Australia…I think the “wet” is finally coming to an end!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Although I have been following the cold conditions in the southern Hemisphere since June 1st, I am a bit surprised about that. The frosty conditions a few weeks ago in Sydney, Buenos Aries, Cape Town …etc is interesting, but not that impressive, considering it happens once in a while. Darwin had it's coldest May/June in 50 years, but again a few times other months have been colder. However, frost in downtown tropical San Paulo at 23 south latitude is quite impressive!.

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Here on the USA mainland, Miami close to the same latitude (25 North)…and Miami has not had a frost downtown in more than 20 years (last time back in the 1980’s I think). Of course, cold temps in these latitudes is truly fleeting and lasts only a matter of hours (or less than an hour), but some tropical fruits and coconuts do risk some modest damage. I hope this is not the case.

Perhaps climate change is now truly upon us?

My Favorite post by you. We would all love to see posts like this in the CT forum.

[CarolinaOnMyMind]

I second that!

Originally Posted by Cambium

My Favorite post by you. We would all love to see posts like this in the CT forum.

[Cambium]

Well... these cold shots of air will be quick and temporary... I see average and above average temps for most of October after this weekend.

Indian summer in the fall.

I still say snow on green mountains and adk this weekend. Warm until end of November. Average until January. We will have a 2nd half winter this year unlike the 1st half like last year.