[Lincolnian]

We don't want rain with a large snow pack. Better to have some warmer days.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

[b][u][color=red]We will be getting another 2 feet by end of February

I would caution being that bold grasshopper:

Although I think a storm in some fashion will pass through the eastern USA next week (Wed/Thur ?), I think the outcome may not be all snow. We will see a brief shot of cold air after this…yet I also see some signs of change:

The biggest one is that solar winter ends on February 5th – meaning that the ¼ of the year with the lowest sun angles in the Northern Hemisphere (November, December, and January) is now over. Another one is that for the first time since late October - the southeast ridge off the Florida and Georgia coast tries to awaken. February is the month when the warmth slowly starts building in the subtropical Gulf and South Atlantic states. Right on cue…some of the latest models runs are starting to show the southeast ridge trying to become reestablished. This is very important to us in the Tri-State area: WAA (Warm air advection) can send mild and even warm air across the Tri-State area when the flow turns to the south (or a deep low cuts into the Great Lakes). Finally, if the southeast ridge builds in, and the block to our north weakens…most lows might start to cut toward the Great Lakes, instead of flying off the mainland near the middle Atlantic? I think I might worry about this scenario even next week. Will this mean more rain storms than snow storms in the Tri-State area in the coming weeks? Could all the snow totally melt in the next few weeks?

A wise old man once said that by February the back of winter is broken along the East Coast. One look at the forecast highs for this weekend across the subtropical Gulf and South Atlantic states tells me that old southeast ridge is indeed building my grasshopper…and while maybe not broken…the back of winter is starting to weaken…




.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I would caution being that bold grasshopper:

Although I think a storm in some fashion will pass through the eastern USA next week (Wed/Thur ?), I think the outcome may not be all snow. We will see a brief shot of cold air after this…yet I also see some signs of change:

The biggest one is that solar winter ends on February 5th – meaning that the ¼ of the year with the lowest sun angles in the Northern Hemisphere (November, December, and January) is now over. Another one is that for the first time since late October - the southeast ridge off the Florida and Georgia coast tries to awaken. February is the month when the warmth slowly starts building in the subtropical Gulf and South Atlantic states. Right on cue…some of the latest models runs are starting to show the southeast ridge trying to become reestablished. This is very important to us in the Tri-State area: WAA (Warm air advection) can send mild and even warm air across the Tri-State area when the flow turns to the south (or a deep low cuts into the Great Lakes). Finally, if the southeast ridge builds in, and the block to our north weakens…most lows might start to cut toward the Great Lakes, instead of flying off the mainland near the middle Atlantic? I think I might worry about this scenario even next week. Will this mean more rain storms than snow storms in the Tri-State area in the coming weeks? Could all the snow totally melt in the next few weeks?

A wise old man once said that by February the back of winter is broken along the East Coast. One look at the forecast highs for this weekend across the subtropical Gulf and South Atlantic states tells me that old southeast ridge is indeed building my grasshopper…and while maybe not broken…the back of winter is starting to weaken…




.

True (and the average temperatures warm up a bit going through the month), but it's also true that in a "normal" winter, February is still the snowiest month (though January is close and one can find years with lots of December and/or January snow that fell off after that). Last year, the bulk of the snow was in February (for example, there's only 15" of snow in Central Park before that 36.9" February and only a trace after that......and all those insane records in Philly, Baltimore, and DC last year were very "February-heavy").

I think what you say (and more so in recent years) is more true about March. For example, after the big snows in February last year (and this being a CT forum, I have to admit that the huge Feb. snows was mostly true from NYC on
south and in CT mostly an issue in Fairfield Co), virtually nothing fell in March (I think it was a Trace in NYC and 0.1" in Bridgeport). And if you look at the historical record, we have gotten a lot less March snow most of the time than we used to (yes, I know 2 years ago it snowed big in early March, and yes in the record 1995-96 winter it was very cold and snowy in March).

[jp03]

[quote=wavehunter007;17627348]I would caution being that bold grasshopper:

Although I think a storm in some fashion will pass through the eastern USA next week (Wed/Thur ?), I think the outcome may not be all snow. We will see a brief shot of cold air after this…yet I also see some signs of change:

The biggest one is that solar winter ends on February 5th – meaning that the ¼ of the year with the lowest sun angles in the Northern Hemisphere (November, December, and January) is now over. Another one is that for the first time since late October - the southeast ridge off the Florida and Georgia coast tries to awaken. February is the month when the warmth slowly starts building in the subtropical Gulf and South Atlantic states. Right on cue…some of the latest models runs are starting to show the southeast ridge trying to become reestablished. This is very important to us in the Tri-State area: WAA (Warm air advection) can send mild and even warm air across the Tri-State area when the flow turns to the south (or a deep low cuts into the Great Lakes). Finally, if the southeast ridge builds in, and the block to our north weakens…most lows might start to cut toward the Great Lakes, instead of flying off the mainland near the middle Atlantic? I think I might worry about this scenario even next week. Will this mean more rain storms than snow storms in the Tri-State area in the coming weeks? Could all the snow totally melt in the next few weeks?

A wise old man once said that by February the back of winter is broken along the East Coast. One look at the forecast highs for this weekend across the subtropical Gulf and South Atlantic states tells me that old southeast ridge is indeed building my grasshopper…and while maybe not broken…the back of winter is starting to weaken…




.[/Q

This winter has got to be killing you

[Cambium]

2 models showing another storm 3 days after the Tuesday storm. Checking details now.

----
Another tricky forecast... I'm seeing all snow for North and West of the Merrit, Ice in betwen Merrit and 95. Rain to east of 95.

If 2 of the models are right, there will be something falling from sky from Wednesday night to Friday afternoon... Whether its snow, ice or rain remains to be seen.

Remember:

5-12 days out - Potential (we got that)
3-6 days out - track of storm (we got that)
0-3 days out - precip type and amount (tomm morning is crunch time)

[7 Wishes]

Interesting Facebook sub-site (I don't think you have to be a member of Facebook to see it) by the NWS comparing (at least in Central Park) this winter with 1995-96.

NWS Chart of 2010-11 snowfall vs. 1995-96

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by jp03

[QUOTEThis winter has got to be killing you

Well...with a greenhouse in the yard that hits 80 F on a sunny day...family in deep south Florida...and considering it didn't even snow till December 26th in the Tri-State area...I almost feel like it has been fleeting. A few weeks ago I was under a coconut palm and it was 84 F at Hollywood Beach .

As far as the climo part...someone has to be the balance to the winter hype and pro winter persepective don't they?

The time is growing closer and closer that warm air advection sends temps into the 50's and 60's across the Tri-State area...so winter fans should enjoy what they have. While more snow falls in Feb than January...it also melts quicker do to the increasing solar angle. At this point - you can't stop the sun.

[Lincolnian]

The magic date is usually the 15th of March in CT. Any snow after that date usually disappears in a few days. You get a few high 50s, 60s or even a few 70s popping up.

Further north in VT and NH add 3 weeks. I've had snow in the yard into early May in NH with ice on ponds. We were always swimming by Memorial Day.

It's a beautiful thing and spring always provides a refreshing spirit that wouldn't be fully appreciated without a real winter.

This spring should be spectacular!

[HeadedWest]

Originally Posted by Lincolnian

The magic date is usually the 15th of March in CT. Any snow after that date usually disappears in a few days. You get a few high 50s, 60s or even a few 70s popping up.

Further north in VT and NH add 3 weeks. I've had snow in the yard into early May in NH with ice on ponds. We were always swimming by Memorial Day.

It's a beautiful thing and spring always provides a refreshing spirit that wouldn't be fully appreciated without a real winter.

This spring should be spectacular!

This spring everybody in CT will be able to swim inside their own house!

We are hiring a contractor to push back the snow walls so our driveway will be safer and we will have room to throw the new snow out of the driveway.

He's the guy who put a new foundation drainage system on my house last spring. He said that with the amount of snow around the house there was no certainty at all that the drains would be able to carry away all the water from the melt, and we are likely -- or maybe even guaranteed -- to have the lower floor (finished) flood when the snow melts.

He suggested digging a trench in the snow all the way around the uphill side of the house to divert water coming down the hill from getting next to the foundation. (This will be a monumental task, because it will all have to be done by hand.)

Here is his point that might be of use to somebody else: he says DON'T clear the snow right at the foundation. Make the trench about 5 feet away from the house, so that the water that flows into the ground or along the trench is not up against the house foundation. Then you have a chance to stay dry. Maybe.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Well...with a greenhouse in the yard that hits 80 F on a sunny day...family in deep south Florida...and considering it didn't even snow till December 26th in the Tri-State area...I almost feel like it has been fleeting. A few weeks ago I was under a coconut palm and it was 84 F at Hollywood Beach .

As far as the climo part...someone has to be the balance to the winter hype and pro winter persepective don't they?

The time is growing closer and closer that warm air advection sends temps into the 50's and 60's across the Tri-State area...so winter fans should enjoy what they have. While more snow falls in Feb than January...it also melts quicker do to the increasing solar angle. At this point - you can't stop the sun.

Normally true...but this winter I think you're underestimating the effect of the deep (to historic levels!) snowpack in terms of energy reflected back and/or required to melt the snow, vs. going into warming the air.