[Mixum]

that would be amazing cam!! but sadly i have no faith in it happening after all the duds lately.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

...I would think any real chance of snow is more than a month away,

In the world of sports, this statement would be referred to as "bulletin board material"!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Mixum

This weather is atrocious

Originally Posted by Cambium

2 words... Get Ready.

So are you ready? How about we lower our standard and just hope for a flake? Anything more will just be the cherries on top.

[exnj1970]

Originally Posted by Cambium

So are you ready? How about we lower our standard and just hope for a flake? Anything more will just be the cherries on top.

Seems like you know something. Do tell.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

In the world of sports, this statement would be referred to as "bulletin board material"!

Hmmm….not quite. It’s based on…
.
A = statistical odds: The average date of the first one inch of snow at most area NWS stations in the Tri-State area is around December 8th (inland portions of the region)….and December 18th for coastal areas (like CT coast/Long Island…etc). Here is the data from the National Weather Service (first/last 1 inch of snow):

National Weather Service Climate

B = The current warm and dry pattern and the short term forecast: It WILL be a warm pattern for many locations in the central and Eastern United States in the coming weeks. Of course that doesn’t mean it can’t snow (it often does snow a tiny bit in warm patterns).

IN the short term,

One disturbance will speed across the northern tier of states this weekend (north of 40 latitude), pulling a modest cold front off the Northeast coast Sunday. Moisture will be VERY LIMITED. There might be a some VERY light snow in the FAR northern reaches of upstate New York/Vermont near the Candian border…but it will have ZERO impact down in the NYC/CT/NJ area southward. Zero.

Late this weekend and into next week, a second cold front will pull down another chuck of cooler air across the East Coast….and by the middle of next week a disturbance might develop (though the odds are against it) in the Great Lakes. As this low moves through the eastern Great Lakes and into southern Canada, some rain/wet mix could occur again WELL north/west of the NYC/CT area.

In sports these two closest chances (though the attempt will be made to hype them to the fullest - lol)....is what we call hope of "The Hail Mary Pass"....

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Hmmm….not quite. It’s based on…
.
A = statistical odds: The average date of the first one inch of snow at most area NWS stations in the Tri-State area is around December 8th (inland portions of the region)….and December 18th for coastal areas (like CT coast/Long Island…etc). Here is the data from the National Weather Service (first/last 1 inch of snow):

National Weather Service Climate

B = The current warm and dry pattern and the short term forecast: It WILL be a warm pattern for many locations in the central and Eastern United States in the coming weeks. Of course that doesn’t mean it can’t snow (it often does snow a tiny bit in warm patterns).

IN the short term,

One disturbance will speed across the northern tier of states this weekend (north of 40 latitude), pulling a modest cold front off the Northeast coast Sunday. Moisture will be VERY LIMITED. There might be a some VERY light snow in the FAR northern reaches of upstate New York/Vermont near the Candian border…but it will have ZERO impact down in the NYC/CT/NJ area southward. Zero.

Late this weekend and into next week, a second cold front will pull down another chuck of cooler air across the East Coast….and by the middle of next week a disturbance might develop (though the odds are against it) in the Great Lakes. As this low moves through the eastern Great Lakes and into southern Canada, some rain/wet mix could occur again WELL north/west of the NYC/CT area.

In sports these two closest chances (though the attempt will be made to hype them to the fullest - lol)....is what we call hope of "The Hail Mary Pass"....

I think this rationale exemplifies the difference between climate and weather.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

So are you ready? How about we lower our standard and just hope for a flake? Anything more will just be the cherries on top.

I think you are just pumping Mixum up for a big old letdown. Let's face it, its not snowing next week. It's early NOVEMBER. Guys lets just let winter come in December like its supposed to. I hate to agree with the warm weather guy EVER but.............

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

I think this rationale exemplifies the difference between climate and weather.

If you mean that in the context of weather (is conditions of a short time span)….and climate (is the average weather of a location over a long time span)….your quite right.

That’s why I say, that the odds of a signifcant snow in November are quite rare in the Tri-State before early/mid December. Both the long term odds (climate) and the current conditions (weather) don’t seem to support it.

In one way or another... most of the data seem to show this pattern for the next 3 weeks of November - overall a ridge in the eastern USA is not helpful for snowfall:

[TobinJ]

If it does snow we can resume our farmers almanac reliability convo...they have a storm roughed in, pretty close....this is for Winsted, ct...we'll see.

NOVEMBER 2013: temperature 38° (1° below avg.); precipitation 5" (1.5" above avg.); Nov 1-4: Rain and snow showers, chilly; Nov 5-10: Snowstorm, then flurries, cold; Nov 11-15: Rain, then snow showers, cold; Nov 16-18: Showers, mild; Nov 19-24: Snow showers, cold; Nov 25-30: Periods of rain and snow, mild.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

If you mean that in the context of weather (is conditions of a short time span)….and climate (is the average weather of a location over a long time span)….your quite right.

That’s why I say, that the odds of a signifcant snow in November are quite rare in the Tri-State before early/mid December. Both the long term odds (climate) and the current conditions (weather) don’t seem to support it.

In one way or another... most of the data seem to show this pattern for the next 3 weeks of November - overall a ridge in the eastern USA is not helpful for snowfall:

Wait a minute..that ridge is in the Southeast USA. In fact this pattern supports below normal temps..not above normal.