[Cambium]

Check out Bridgeport's current temp. Warmer than NYC. In the words of Mixum... that's just depressing. LOL

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Mixum

i mean its gotta do something sooner or later riiiiiiiiight???? lol

Yes it HAS to do something….like rain a little (or a great deal)……snow a little maybe near the last days of the month….have a warm/cool period…etc. My point is don’t always expect the massive “extreme” of weather to occur in the Tri-State area all the time . Within the periods of rare storms and large deviations of temps….is long, long periods of very “average” weather. Some of us might consider this fall to be too warm/dry and sunny (depending on their weather preferences)….but this type of weather is far more typical of the Tri-State area in fall than the extremes we are lend to believe can happen every year.

My point is lets’ enjoy our climate for what it really is - and not the hype of rare events.

Now if we are looking ahead to what “might (?)” happen there are some clues out there in the short term (maybe out 3 weeks or so):The updated weekly long range outlook though early December seems to be pointing toward the Arctic Oscillation remaining solidly positive over the next 10 days/2 weeks. Typical when this happens the cold air is locked up in Canada and the flow is fast (meaning warm/cool air is in and out fast, as well as rainfall). Also, the PNA seems to want to trend negitive for the next two weeks or so…when this happens typically we see a cooler/wetter pattern in the West….and a drier/warmer pattern in the Southcentral and Eastern areas of the USA.

The maps below show the basic thinking out to early December…wetter and cooler than normal in parts of the West and warmer and drier than normal in parts of the East. This seems in-line with the warm and dry fall we have been enjoying on the East Coast so far this fall:

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by LINative

Wavehunter - besides the cactus that grows in Connecticut, there is also the Monk Parakeet.

Yes, that was a real shocker to me as well (again proving how things are never what they seem to be).

Like most people I long associated parrots only with deep tropical climates. Yet, there are large colonies of Monk parrots along the East Coast in Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, and North Carolina. There are several stories as the how/why the Monk Parrots got to the East Coast of the USA: I’ve heard they migrating to the East Coast in the South American winter (where they are native to), and due to the mild coastal climate from CT/Long Island southward they colonized here. Then there is the story of an overturned truck on the NJ Turnpike where they escaped…and another is that they became caught in the eye of Hurricane Gloria over the Bahamas in 1985 and were deposited on the East Coast between NC and CT. So who really knows?

They are cool looking birds and I see them in my bamboo grove all the time:

[Cambium]

Looking ahead from NWS Boston... After this "warmup", the warmups should have less "umph" with it IMO.

So even though today and tomorrow aren't impressive, the next ones could be even less impressive. After Thursday evening the cooler change starts again but with seasonable temps first then cold after weekend.

THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES...

MUCH WARMER WITH 925 MB TEMPS UP TO +12C DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA...WITH UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. THEN BEHIND FROPA GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 925 MB TEMPS TUMBLING FROM +10C AT 12Z TO ABOUT +4C ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNSET.

MON NIGHT INTO MID WEEK...

ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS LOOKS TO FOLLOW WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK ONCE AGAIN TO BELOW NORMAL.

[wavehunter007]

According to NWS Upton...

Today and Thur will feature slightly warmer than normal conditions (highs near 60 F).....then falling to slightly below normal for Fri and Sat (low 50's F)....then back up to right around normal for (mid/upper 50 's F) for Sun and into next week. In terms of storms/precip, other than chance of light rain tonight/Thur....the forecast remains sunny, dry, and storm free :




So the idea from NWS/NOAA of the fast flow....warm/cool air in/out fast....little rainfall.....and no below normal cold, seems on track at least for the coming week or so.

[Wilton2ParkAve]

The back and forth on this thread is insane. Wave should just head to Florida.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

The back and forth on this thread is insane. Wave should just head to Florida.

haha... soon Wilt... oh that reminds me...

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

As far as storms...no I see no big storms for awhile.

However, for next week and after… I think we slowly (s-l-o-w-l-y) transition into a more seasonable pattern, and mean temps will not be so much above normal as they have been for the first 3 weeks of October. We are likely done with 70 F’s this fall in the Tri-State area after this week.

This first wave of cooler air this coming weekend (although it will hardly be truly cold) will usher in more seasonable air in the Tri-State/Mid Atlantic. The ECMF now goes out to November 12th…and while there still appears to be above normal warmth along much of the East Coast from Florida to VA, the Mid and upper East Coast look seasonable in early/mid November. The warmth for Alaska normally means no severe cold down in the USA . So I think early November will not see any below normal temps in much of the USA, at least if this long range forecast holds:

Still, I see no below normal cold for the Tri-State area at least to mid November...so we all should save a bit on heating for the next 30 days or so:

Bump!!!!!!!!

[Cambium]

Mixum must of turned the knob on extreme High. The water is now sizzling.

Both updates of the Canadian and GFS now have a snowstorm mid next week. Black box out areas show the snow depth and areas. (DO NOT look at the details) Lets see if the "storm" keeps showing up. I'm not worried about the temps/precip type yet. But WOW.

[wavehunter007]

The subtropical ridge off Florida will shoot any storms toward the Great Lakes at this point.

With sea surface temps so warm off New Jersey....in most cases this would mean rain for the Tri~State area. I would think any real chance of snow is more than a month away,