[exnj1970]

Awwww, I wish we were getting the snowflakes!

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Out of curiosity I looked back at July 1st 1943 to see how cold the air was.. Hartford was in the upper 40s. Albany in the mid 40s. Even NYC in low 50s. So the air was cold for sure but I think your right about location and maybe data itself. It's so hard especially going back before 1950 to get good data unless its from the big cities like this where records were better kept.

July 1943 Weather Data.
NYC
Albany
Hartford

Note how just a week later it approached 90 in Hartford (I see it was over 90 in Albany) and how the rest of the month was rather hot! Believe it or not, my grandma once told me about her memories that week when I was a kid because my mother was born on July 9th of that year (in Brooklyn NY), how it was so chilly then so hot all at once! Thanks for reminding me of that memory with her.

Also the 52 in NYC on July 1 is their all-time July low temperature and that's with records back to 1869......

Originally Posted by jp03

I cant remember ever seeing atemp even below 50 in July or August.. colder times back then

I don't know how old you are but 1986 had some temps like that in the summer.....NYC's all time July 4 low was 54 that year (look for video of people in jackets for the 100th anniversary of the Statue of Liberty celebration) and the last week of August had several days of lows of exactly 50 at Central Park (all time low for the month) and even nearby stations like Newark and JFK were in the 40s (and BDR in the low 40s). I bet Danbury was in the low 40s or even upper 30s then.....I remember the latter one pretty well because I was starting my sophomore year of college in the Albany, NY area and being "young and ignorant" thought late summer was always like that up there.....

[GraniteStater]

Newer model runs are indicating the same trend. Every few days alternate between cool/mild air for quite some time. No blocking at all and a very zonal progressive flow pattern. Hopefully this isn't a sign for December or the snowfall potential will get off to a slower start.

[Brian26]

Cold lovers enjoy!

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STRONG CAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -8C. INLAND...WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AREAS SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. A NLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH INLAND LOCATIONS WILL DECOUPLE MORE THAN THE COAST. LOWS OF 20S AND LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 30S IN MOST OF NYC.

IT WILL BECOME RATHER CHILLY FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVE AND TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN REACHING THE FREEZING MARK BY LATE EVE. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR URBAN AND COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT YET ENDED. FROST IS UNLIKELY DUE TO WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. VERY DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Brian26

Cold lovers enjoy!
.

Yup. Impressive stuff. Forget the telleconnections. 30s even in the SouthEast once again.

2 Maps here... This first one shows the bleeding down of the Polar and Canadian Air right now. (but as I said before, not going to get locked in so its in and out)



This one shows the current surface map and temps. Cold front all the way off the coast AND into the Gulf as well. Hence why the South is even 10 below normal too.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Two days actually....I think Sunday will be almost as cold as Monday, though the actual high might be more if it's still warmish at midnight and gets cold quick over night.......and the "warm spell" of near or at 70 degrees looks short lived too (Wednesday and Thursday), then a more "normal" (50s) pattern for next weekend.

I don't know...

We are at 43 F this early hr, so we would have to not rise much more than 7 F or so to keep us under 50 F - which I think is what will happen on Monday (everyone below 50 F). I guess time will tell how much sun we get today.

I do think it will warm again this week, but not to 70 F. By Monday night the flow will already be changing toward the west/southwest as the ridge builds into the Tri-State/Mid Atlantic. So we'll see mid 60's and rather nice weather. After that, agree, another cool down. Still no real cold air anywhere on the horizon. In fact, a week from today, temps between Washington DC and NYC/Connecticut, look very close to normal with highs from 55 to 60 F with sunny and dry conditions continuing. I think fall 2013 might be one of our more typical dry and mild falls with little rainfall.




As to the pattern that will/is becoming established once the real cold season starts in December...I agree with some of the points above...this every few days alternate between cool/mild air.....No blocking....and a very zonal progressive flow pattern....means the first 1/3 of winter (December) might be rather mild and storm free. Often the pattern in November (when the players for winter normally start to take their positions) gives a good clue to what winter will be like. I guess will know the more we get deeper into November. Still. the longer this semi-mild pattern holds out in November and early December, the nicer it will be for me until I can see this sign - lol:

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I don't know...

We are at 43 F this early hr, so we would have to not rise much more than 7 F or so to keep us under 50 F - which I think is what will happen on Monday (everyone below 50 F). I guess time will tell how much sun we get today.

I do think it will warm again this week, but not to 70 F. By Monday night the flow will already be changing toward the west/southwest as the ridge builds into the Tri-State/Mid Atlantic. So we'll see mid 60's and rather nice weather. After that, agree, another cool down. Still no real cold air anywhere on the horizon. In fact, a week from today, temps between Washington DC and NYC/Connecticut, look very close to normal with highs from 55 to 60 F with sunny and dry conditions continuing. I think fall 2013 might be one of our more typical dry and mild falls with little rainfall.

NWS and others seem to be saying that temp won't rise much throughout the day though, I admit I thought it strange they are all only showing hi 40s when they were also showing this morning's lows were also going to be in the 40s everywhere. I guess we'll see.

I agree with your 2nd point though. NWS seems to be "backpedaling" as well, even in NYC they are now saying mid 60s later this week as opposed to 70/low 70s

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I don't know...

We are at 43 F this early hr, so we would have to not rise much more than 7 F or so to keep us under 50 F - which I think is what will happen on Monday (everyone below 50 F). I guess time will tell how much sun we get today.

I do think it will warm again this week, but not to 70 F. By Monday night the flow will already be changing toward the west/southwest as the ridge builds into the Tri-State/Mid Atlantic. So we'll see mid 60's and rather nice weather. After that, agree, another cool down. Still no real cold air anywhere on the horizon. In fact, a week from today, temps between Washington DC and NYC/Connecticut, look very close to normal with highs from 55 to 60 F with sunny and dry conditions continuing. I think fall 2013 might be one of our more typical dry and mild falls with little rainfall.




As to the pattern that will/is becoming established once the real cold season starts in December...I agree with some of the points above...this every few days alternate between cool/mild air.....No blocking....and a very zonal progressive flow pattern....means the first 1/3 of winter (December) might be rather mild and storm free. Often the pattern in November (when the players for winter normally start to take their positions) gives a good clue to what winter will be like. I guess will know the more we get deeper into November. Still. the longer this semi-mild pattern holds out in November and early December, the nicer it will be for me until I can see this sign - lol:

Frigid night coming up!!! Considering to normal this is a very cold air mass!

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

NWS and others seem to be saying that temp won't rise much throughout the day though, I admit I thought it strange they are all only showing hi 40s when they were also showing this morning's lows were also going to be in the 40s everywhere. I guess we'll see.

I agree with your 2nd point though. NWS seems to be "backpedaling" as well, even in NYC they are now saying mid 60s later this week as opposed to 70/low 70s

I did see that as well. In fact, my temp has not moved in the last 2 hrs - so maybe NWS is right, we might not even go up 7 F the whole day. Though the clouds are breaking up and the sun is really coming out now, we'll see what it can do.

As to the warm temps yea, 70's F seem a bit much, but in should have no trouble getting into the 60's after Tuesday. In fact, even Monday, as we have cool air settled right over the Tri-State/Middle Atlantic....the pattern will already be turning toward the southwest - that subtropical ridge off Florida is quite strong. Here is the flow for late Monday...any cool air will be short lived it looks like:

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I admit I thought it strange they are all only showing hi 40s when they were also showing this morning's lows were also going to be in the 40s everywhere.

CAA - Cold Air Advection. "Cold advection is the process in which the wind blows from a region of cold air to a region of warmer air"

So the 40s this morning is residual from the warmer air we had yesterday. The colder air is pushing southwards and since it's a really cold airmass it will stabilize and hold temps down even as day progresses. Once the cold air settles over us that's when we feel it (tonight/tomorrow).

Freezing line at 4000' now off the CT coast and will push well into the Atlantic. Northern NY/VT/NH/ME at -11°C. That darker blue will eventually be over us which means teens(F°) at the mid levels.