[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Mixum

Brad Field says miss

As I said yesterday, I do look at every model update but no need to mention each one. I also said we need to wait until the energy is at least in the NorthWest. Upton says the same..

By Sunday morning we'll have a better idea. Right now, consensus says there is a storm about 600 miles to the East which would be way too far for us. Upton says the storm does develop down south and does move northeast though.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL BEGIN THIS DISCUSSION WITH ANALYSIS OF THE MAIN FEATURE TO
WATCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DIVE OUT OF EXTREME
NORTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS WEEKEND PLOWING TOWARD THE CONUS. WOULD
EXPECT BETTER CONSENSUS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING OBS TO AID ANALYSIS.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC DOES INDEED DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES AND
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW PLACEMENT CLUSTERS SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. 12Z CMC ACTUALLY IS A GOOD COMPROMISE...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY NORTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.

[Brian26]

Even if the storm is a bust. It's still early to tell. I am loving this below normal cold stretch and especially the 10-15 degree below normal temps coming Tues. Looks like the stove will be burning into late next week.

There is a good chance of some snow showers when the front passes Tues. The cold is getting stronger, warmth is weaker, and snow is starting to fall.. Winter is coming. It's early November. Plenty of time ahead for more cold and snow.

It does look like there is a brief warmup after this cold shot. However, there are many signs that after that it turns much colder again.

A FEW RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH MAINLY RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THEN THE FRONT PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH AND CHILLY AIR...POSSIBLY COLDEST OF THE SEASON TEMPS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.
CHILLY TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED SUNDAY.

MOS BLEND FOLLOWED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN FLOW MONDAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPORARILY. THEN TEMPS FALL BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

[Brian26]

Dropped way below my forecasted low. Currently 26 here! Thought my weather station had issues then I checked this .WunderMap® | Interactive Weather Map and Radar | Weather Underground Lots of mid 20's out there this morning.

[Cambium]

Current temps. We've had 12-15 nights below normal in the last 21 days.

[Cambium]

Some folks will try to continue to use "hope" for this storm that was shown. No models show it now so moving on. Hand it to the GFS for showing up the Euro this time.

However, get ready for some white stuff Tuesday morning along the Arctic front..... or will it? At this point with the drought we have on hand.... NAM might be the right one to believe.

GFS says a strip of light snow from TN Valley to New England along the front Tues morn. NAM shows more dry air around. Either way... it's going to get very cold mid week.

[Brian26]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Some folks will try to continue to use "hope" for this storm that was shown. No models show it now so moving on. Hand it to the GFS for showing up the Euro this time.

However, get ready for some white stuff Tuesday morning along the Arctic front..... or will it? At this point with the drought we have on hand.... NAM might be the right one to believe.

GFS says a strip of light snow from TN Valley to New England along the front Tues morn. NAM shows more dry air around. Either way... it's going to get very cold mid week.

Yep. Let's move on.

I am thinking we will see some snow showers when the front passes Tues as well. The cold is getting stronger. There are signals of a big cool down coming late month. Yes it will warmup briefly but I have this gut feeling end of month the pattern will change.

In the meantime.. Cold lovers enjoy!

TEMPS FALL BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

[Brian26]

I lived in VT for 5 years and spent a lot of time coming back and forth from there to CT. Based on my experience this will be coming to CT soon....

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I think we are going to have to wait at least until late Sunday before this back and forth by NWS is even close to being settled. This is typical of how the computers eventually work their way toward a more realistic solution.

Pretty typical stuff it seems, long term climatology really made the chance of a significant snow event before mid-December in the Tri-State area a million to one shot. Climatology always seems the safest bet when faced with the fantasy forecasts of the models/media. NWS Mount Holly already seems to have given up this morning:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
549 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
FROM THE MID-WEST, PROVIDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.

CONCERN ABOUT A NOR`EASTER AFFECTING OUR REGION SEEMS TO BE WANING
AS THE 00Z RUNS FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHUNT A COASTAL LOW OUT
TO SEA TO OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

Otherwise....nice weekend on tap for the Tri-State area...sunshine, dry weather, and temps in the mid 50's F. I think Sunday will be the best day:

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Brian26

TEMPS FALL BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

GFS6z Data for Danbury & New Haven CT next 7 days..

Notice 3 things

1. Very little precip-that little being shown might be the drizzle/snow showers.
2. 20s by 7pm Wed for many.
3. It's cold through the period with a couple of seasonable pops but not many.

[mikelizard860]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Current temps. We've had 12-15 nights below normal in the last 21 days.

Can you explain to me why meriden airport, ct is colder than montreal by 10 degrees? It's also colder than bdl at 10 degrees. That weather station always seems to report colder in the morning than surrounding areas for some reason. It's not in a deep valley(300 feet in meriden). Seems to be their weather equipment might be off.