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Atlanta was at 167 as of Christmas Eve, up from 157 same time last year (+6%). Not sure how many in the last week of the year but hoping for a better 2023. The only "good" news is violent crime overall is down 7% (which APD only includes rapes and aggravated assaults along with homicides). Property crimes are slightly up by 1%, and crime overall about even with last year.
It looks like the year will end under 700, but too close. 53 murders in December. 2 months ago, I made the optimistic forecast that it will be 650-660, but it didn't go that way.
A man has been shot to death today around 10am, once again in the Prentis Park section of Portsmouth. Welp, there it is. Reached 40 homicides, 6 murders in the last week to close out the year.
Richmond and Norfolk will end the year practically dead even with each other in rate. Richmond had a horrible December last year where they recorded nearly 20 murders, but this year it remained steady.
Washington DC - 202 | 29.2
Norfolk - 60 | 25.2
Richmond - 57 | 25.1
Portsmouth - 40 | 40.8
Newport News - 27 | 14.4
Chesapeake - 26 | 10.4
Hampton - 23 | 16.7
Fairfax County - 22 | 2.1
Henrico County - 22 | 6.6
Petersburg - 20 | 59.7
Virginia Beach - 19 | 4.1
Prince William County - 18 | 3.7
Roanoke - 18 | 17.9
Chesterfield County - 17 | 4.6
Suffolk - 13 | 13.7
Hopewell - 10 | 43.4
Alexandria - 9 | 5.6
Danville - 7 | 16.4
Lynchburg - 6 | 7.5
Arlington County - 1 | 0.4
I’m surprised Ward 2 is that high. Is it an anomaly this year?
TLDR: It’s the Green Line effect.
What’s happening in Ward 2 is that the increasing decay of Ward 1 is pushing South.
Of the 11 Ward 2 homicides, 4 were immediately south of the Ward 1 border, including Adams Morgan - which feels far dumpier than it did about 5-10 years ago when I would frequent it. Back then it was fake gritty with street art for the tourists. Now it’s actually gross.
A Commanders NFL player even got shot twice in November there due to a juvenile-attempted carjacking. An 18- and 30-year old were murdered in Adams Morgan on 12/19.
Then another 4 of Ward 2’s deaths were in Chinatown-Gallery Place, another area that was buzzing about a decade ago but I won’t go there anymore due to how seedy and sketch it feels, even though my favorite art museum in the entire region (American Art Museum) is there. The Chinatown-Gallery Place Station is only rivaled by Union Station for how much it has declined in the past 5 years.
So it’s essentially a return to the early 2000s before all of Ward 2 became gentrified.
I used to live in Mount Pleasant and I’ve heard from friends still there that Columbia Heights has declined severely.
Whereas they could once count on city support for carjackings, robberies, and gangs, now they get deaf ears. The neighborhood Wawa shut down due to thefts, and Ward 1 is represented by a councilwoman (Brianne Nadeau) who is infamous across the metro for ignoring constituent concerns about crime.
She even proposed to fix the homeless problem by having residents house mentally ill/opiod-addicted people. She’s also the lead in fighting Bowser on removing homeless encampments.
So DC’s concentrated povery is becoming less concentrated, and that diffusion is occurring via the Green Line.
Los Angeles (12/24) - 373. Down 5.8% ytd.
San Bernardino - 73?
Compton - 19
Palmdale - 18
Victorville - not sure but probably over 20 by now.
I list the two high desert cities because they have some of the highest rates in the region. Everything else is around average rates.
Wow , So Palmdale is as bad as Compton now days ??
“ Maybe that’s because everyone from L.A / Compton moved to the high desert and turned it out “
San Bernardino is the usual suspect here as well as South Los Angeles, California has some serious laws in play next year so hopefully the crime is at an all time low in 2023 ~
And I’m sure St Louis & Baltimore are still the worse ?
I noticed this and was conflicted whether I should include it in my count or not, did so anyway for both to be safe. I think those were the ones that happened in Hybla Valley/Mt. Vernon.
Anyone have solid numbers on MoCo? I think it's safer this year than Fairfax County.
Which puts the homicide rate above FFX County, but at ~2.5/100k still low. The homicides tend to be concentrated around Silver Spring Area and parts of Gaithersburg/Germantown anyway.
Quote:
Originally Posted by manitopiaaa
TLDR: It’s the Green Line effect.
What’s happening in Ward 2 is that the increasing decay of Ward 1 is pushing South.
Of the 11 Ward 2 homicides, 4 were immediately south of the Ward 1 border, including Adams Morgan - which feels far dumpier than it did about 5-10 years ago when I would frequent it. Back then it was fake gritty with street art for the tourists. Now it’s actually gross.
A Commanders NFL player even got shot twice in November there due to a juvenile-attempted carjacking. An 18- and 30-year old were murdered in Adams Morgan on 12/19.
Then another 4 of Ward 2’s deaths were in Chinatown-Gallery Place, another area that was buzzing about a decade ago but I won’t go there anymore due to how seedy and sketch it feels, even though my favorite art museum in the entire region (American Art Museum) is there. The Chinatown-Gallery Place Station is only rivaled by Union Station for how much it has declined in the past 5 years.
So it’s essentially a return to the early 2000s before all of Ward 2 became gentrified.
I used to live in Mount Pleasant and I’ve heard from friends still there that Columbia Heights has declined severely.
Whereas they could once count on city support for carjackings, robberies, and gangs, now they get deaf ears. The neighborhood Wawa shut down due to thefts, and Ward 1 is represented by a councilwoman (Brianne Nadeau) who is infamous across the metro for ignoring constituent concerns about crime.
She even proposed to fix the homeless problem by having residents house mentally ill/opiod-addicted people. She’s also the lead in fighting Bowser on removing homeless encampments.
So DC’s concentrated povery is becoming less concentrated, and that diffusion is occurring via the Green Line.
Gallery Place area is always somewhat shady, though...it's just moving backward to circa 2010 instead of anything new.
And I wouldn't say DC's poverty get decentralized by much. Ward 2 is still fairly safe compare to EOTR (Ward 7 / Ward 8). The latter are still in much worse shape with the high homicide / violent crime rate extending east across District line to Inner PGC.
What we're seeing is semi-gentrified areas (like Columbia Heights) being affected by the pandemic - i.e. the gentrification slowed down and the area went back to where it was circa 2000s-2010s.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBears02
Houston - 419 (Down 9.9%)
Which is pleasantly surprising, considering that Houston's number was looking pretty bad at the beginning of 2022.
I lived in DC for about ten years in the 2000’s and visited recently but didn’t get to see Adams Morgan or Gallery Place/Chinatown so it’s sad to hear that those areas have been sliding backwards. I always felt safe and comfortable in both neighborhoods and it seemed like things were changing permanently for the better. I guess you never know.
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