City/Metro Homicides of 2022 (live, better, map, rates)

[SixthCoordinate]

Originally Posted by councilor j

So Winnipeg is the Jackson, MS of Canada?

Not even nearly close......
The gap between Winnipeg and other Canadian cities is way smaller than between Jackson and other US cities...

[Bluefox]

Originally Posted by PolarSeltzer

PNW in 2022:

Tacoma - 43 murders - 19.6/100k rate
Seattle - 57 murders - 7.8/100k rate
Portland - 96 murders - 15.0/100k rate

Crazy I wonder if the Portland rate will pass up Tacoma in the next few years. That will definitely be a thing if it does.

[manitopiaaa]

Wow, I had no clue Portland was at 15 per 100k. That's horrid. I would said it was about about 1/3rd of that.

Apparently, Newark hit a 60-year homicide low (that's right: low). Does anyone know what they're doing right to be breaking 1961 records in the positive direction?

[manitopiaaa]

DC looks like it will end at 201 or so, an 11% reduction.

Meanwhile my old quiet suburban city of Alexandria, VA, is at 9 murders now. That's 5.6 per 100k, pretty horrific from previous years. Before I moved out I remember 3 murders was "a bad year."

Looks like Arlington has kept the chaos at bay though.

[SixthCoordinate]

Originally Posted by manitopiaaa

DC looks like it will end at 201 or so, an 11% reduction.

Meanwhile my old quiet suburban city of Alexandria, VA, is at 9 murders now. That's 5.6 per 100k, pretty horrific from previous years. Before I moved out I remember 3 murders was "a bad year."

Looks like Arlington has kept the chaos at bay though.

Yeah looks like a lot of previously extremely safe cities have been getting a lot worse (even though objectively still very safe) and many high-crime cities have been stable or getting better

[manitopiaaa]

So I decided to lock into Washington DC's 200 homicides (excl. those that happened yesterday).

Here's the old Ward map from the City Gov that the DC database still uses (lines were redrawn but won't take effect until next year):



Here's what I see:

• Ward 1: 82,404 people and 13 homicides = 15.78 per 100k
• Ward 2: 76,492 people and 11 homicides = 14.38 per 100k
• Ward 3: 82,450 people and 2 homicides = 2.43 per 100k
• Ward 4: 86,085 people and 9 homicides = 10.45 per 100k
• Ward 5: 88,948 people and 33 homicides = 37.10 per 100k
• Ward 6: 102,233 people and 7 homicides = 6.85 per 100k
• Ward 7: 81,270 people and 48 homicides = 59.06 per 100k
• Ward 8: 83,272 people and 77 homicides = 92.47 per 100k

And to complete the DC Diamond:

• Alexandria: 154,706 people and 7 homicides = 4.52 per 100k
• Arlington: 232,965 people and 1 homicide = 0.43 per 100k

A few interesting points:
1. First is a correction. I said Alexandria had 9 homicides in a prior comment. It was actually 7. Two homicides that occurred in "Fairfax County" were labeled as "Alexandria" given a good chunk of Fairfax County uses Alexandria mailing addresses.
2. Arlington County is ridiculously safe. I don't know how they do it, but 0.43 is about as safe as Japan, and safer than South Korea.
3. An astounding 39% of DC's homicides happen in 1 of 8 Wards. DC's homicide rate is 29.85 per 100k, but remove Ward 8 and it drops to 20.96 per 100k.
4. 79% of DC's homicides occur in 3 wards. Stay away from these 3 and your chances of being murdered fall by 79%. The remaining wards have 416,560 people and 42 homicides, or 10.09 per 100k.

As someone who never goes into Ward 5, 7, or 8, my exposure to Core DC is the 416,560 people in the 5 "safe" wards + 387,671 people in Alexandria/Arlington. That area has seen 50 homicides or 6.22 per 100k

I find it interesting that but for some historical revisionism (Alexandria/Arlington don't secede, and Wards 5, 7, 8 do), then the new DC would be 804,231 people and one of the safest in the country at 6.22 per 100k. Alas, that's not the case and it's 30 per 100k.

[MurphyKing54]

Originally Posted by manitopiaaa

1. First is a correction. I said Alexandria had 9 homicides in a prior comment. It was actually 7. Two homicides that occurred in "Fairfax County" were labeled as "Alexandria" given a good chunk of Fairfax County uses Alexandria mailing addresses.

I noticed this and was conflicted whether I should include it in my count or not, did so anyway for both to be safe. I think those were the ones that happened in Hybla Valley/Mt. Vernon.

Anyone have solid numbers on MoCo? I think it's safer this year than Fairfax County.

[mphilly]

Originally Posted by manitopiaaa

So I decided to lock into Washington DC's 200 homicides (excl. those that happened yesterday).

Here's the old Ward map from the City Gov that the DC database still uses (lines were redrawn but won't take effect until next year):



Here's what I see:

• Ward 1: 82,404 people and 13 homicides = 15.78 per 100k
• Ward 2: 76,492 people and 11 homicides = 14.38 per 100k
• Ward 3: 82,450 people and 2 homicides = 2.43 per 100k
• Ward 4: 86,085 people and 9 homicides = 10.45 per 100k
• Ward 5: 88,948 people and 33 homicides = 37.10 per 100k
• Ward 6: 102,233 people and 7 homicides = 6.85 per 100k
• Ward 7: 81,270 people and 48 homicides = 59.06 per 100k
• Ward 8: 83,272 people and 77 homicides = 92.47 per 100k

And to complete the DC Diamond:

• Alexandria: 154,706 people and 7 homicides = 4.52 per 100k
• Arlington: 232,965 people and 1 homicide = 0.43 per 100k

A few interesting points:
1. First is a correction. I said Alexandria had 9 homicides in a prior comment. It was actually 7. Two homicides that occurred in "Fairfax County" were labeled as "Alexandria" given a good chunk of Fairfax County uses Alexandria mailing addresses.
2. Arlington County is ridiculously safe. I don't know how they do it, but 0.43 is about as safe as Japan, and safer than South Korea.
3. An astounding 39% of DC's homicides happen in 1 of 8 Wards. DC's homicide rate is 29.85 per 100k, but remove Ward 8 and it drops to 20.96 per 100k.
4. 79% of DC's homicides occur in 3 wards. Stay away from these 3 and your chances of being murdered fall by 79%. The remaining wards have 416,560 people and 42 homicides, or 10.09 per 100k.

As someone who never goes into Ward 5, 7, or 8, my exposure to Core DC is the 416,560 people in the 5 "safe" wards + 387,671 people in Alexandria/Arlington. That area has seen 50 homicides or 6.22 per 100k

I find it interesting that but for some historical revisionism (Alexandria/Arlington don't secede, and Wards 5, 7, 8 do), then the new DC would be 804,231 people and one of the safest in the country at 6.22 per 100k. Alas, that's not the case and it's 30 per 100k.

I’m surprised Ward 2 is that high. Is it an anomaly this year?

[boreatwork]

Originally Posted by manitopiaaa

A few interesting points:
1. First is a correction. I said Alexandria had 9 homicides in a prior comment. It was actually 7. Two homicides that occurred in "Fairfax County" were labeled as "Alexandria" given a good chunk of Fairfax County uses Alexandria mailing addresses.
2. Arlington County is ridiculously safe. I don't know how they do it, but 0.43 is about as safe as Japan, and safer than South Korea.
3. An astounding 39% of DC's homicides happen in 1 of 8 Wards. DC's homicide rate is 29.85 per 100k, but remove Ward 8 and it drops to 20.96 per 100k.
4. 79% of DC's homicides occur in 3 wards. Stay away from these 3 and your chances of being murdered fall by 79%. The remaining wards have 416,560 people and 42 homicides, or 10.09 per 100k.

As someone who never goes into Ward 5, 7, or 8, my exposure to Core DC is the 416,560 people in the 5 "safe" wards + 387,671 people in Alexandria/Arlington. That area has seen 50 homicides or 6.22 per 100k

I find it interesting that but for some historical revisionism (Alexandria/Arlington don't secede, and Wards 5, 7, 8 do), then the new DC would be 804,231 people and one of the safest in the country at 6.22 per 100k. Alas, that's not the case and it's 30 per 100k.

I believe ward 8 is only at 74 and ward 7 at 37

More interesting points
1.) Ward 8 as a stand alone city would be worse than Jackson and Gary Indiana. In the 90s the rate was around 150.

2.) DC proper doesn't have the highest rate in the metro.. Bordering PG county has 105 murders and about 80 of those occur inside the beltway along with Temple hills/ Oxon Hill. The area between NE/ SE DC and inside the beltway of Pg county has around 600k and 239 murders. A rate of 39.

[CXT2000]

41 for Montreal, really sad seeing what's happened here.