[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by educator1953

49 degrees here in Duncan with a stiff breeze blowing and the sun shining. Wonder what tomorrow will bring?

If the clouds clear out and winds die down, you'll be around 15 by sunrise, however with a modest amount of north wind, that will keep the atmosphere stirred up enough to keep temps. closer to 20. Tomorrow (Sat.) look for highs around 36 with scattered high clouds and a northeast wind at 10-15mph. A mix of snow/sleet freezing rain should commence later Sun. afternoon for Duncan, maybe holding off until evening. This won't be a major event and infact I think by Mon. AM, you should be just above freezing, still.. keep the ice scraper handy.

For the rest of us, warmer air streaming in about 2-3,000 feet above ground level by the time the storm arrives late Sunday should preclude us from seeing anything more than a nuisance ice/snow/sleet event for most of the state, pretty much what I originally expected. I still would plan on some slippery travel on some of the lesser traveled roads Sunday night until about 9am Monday as we may be just below freezing when the icy mixture sets in, at least here in central OK.. Hopefully the DOT will be out just in case because there still is a chance we may get a little more freezing rain and sleet before changing over then currently forecasted but I'm still about 75% confident this will be a minimal event. Storm systems later this week are looking weaker but we're now in a pattern that can be quite unpredictable. I'm now guardedly optimistic that another polar plunger will spill south in about 14-18 days from now, could get very interesting.. hopefully I'll get my winter fix somehow between now and the end of March or I'll have to take a quick trip to Colorado..!

[educator1953]

Thanks, Rocky! It's exactly 20 degrees here. I just woke up, took some mail out to the mailbox, and it's cold with a little breeze. The sun is shining now. You were "spot on" with your forecast.

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by educator1953

Thanks, Rocky! It's exactly 20 degrees here. I just woke up, took some mail out to the mailbox, and it's cold with a little breeze. The sun is shining now. You were "spot on" with your forecast.

May have been "spot on" with my projected low temp. but I blew today's high as I think you've only seen around 28 or so. It's interesting that long and even short term models have underdone this arctic air mass for the last several days. Latest thinking with the upcoming weather is a brief period possible of snow starting between 5-8pm Sunday before quickly transitioning to sleet then freezing rain which for Duncan should end by around 9-11am Mon. and maybe around noon for OKC. Heaviest snow amounts may be around 2-3" near Sayre on grassy surfaces and possibly up to 4" in far northeast Okla. I'm very confident this will not be anything more than a minimal deal but I still would expect untreated roads to be very slick later Sun. evening until about 9am-12 noon Mon.

I look forward to others chiming in with what's happening around their area or any questions you may have.

[nightbird47]

According to the weather person it was the coldest day this winter. The dew on the window the storm window won't fit on was frozen to the glass this afternoon. And we went to the store (walmart) this evening and they had snow shovels in the front of the store... and all the coats and warm stuff is out of the store and there was a big display of bikinis. Veryily strange night...

[SluggoF16]

9:30 PM and there's 2 1/2 to 3 inches of snow, light and variable winds. Temp is 28. Got some Canadian visitors coming in tomorrow at Fort Sill, I am certain they'll feel at home.

[rockyinyourradio]

With the vicious cold waves that has gripped much of the European and Asian continents up until this last week.. we have really lucked out here on the North American continent with only Alaska being on the eastern end of this massive arctic chill. Now, much of that cold air has modified some, been dislodged and now....what's left of it.. has it's sights set on much of central Canada and the lower 48. As of now.. we'll experience a week of moderately above normal temperatures and below normal precip. here in Oklahoma. We will have a couple of stout storm systems come barreling through that will be wind machines more than anything else (we could see 25-45mph winds on Monday across the central&Western parts of the state)

After next weekend is when we will see most likely a big cool down. Ironically, we will be into meteorological spring (starts Mar. 1) and we may face potentially some of the coldest temperatures for the whole season, especially if (a big if!) we get a snowcover. The period from roughly Feb 27th-Mar. 6 could feature some very cold and unsettled conditions although at least initially the biggest snowfalls will stretch from Colorado to Minnesota; we'll be close enough to the stormtrack that we'll need to watch for a potential snow here in Okla. but as of now.. nothing major expected.

So, a taste of spring this week, a taste of winter likely the following 6 to 10 days afterwards. As of now, I'm looking at about a 65% chance of this big cool down verifying and quite certain that if it doesn't directly affect Oklahoma.. the cold will be close by (Kansas and Colorado for sure).

Further down the road.. potentially an active March is still in my forecast and what may unfortunately be an active tornado season this year. Definitely more moisture than last spring although lengthy dry stretches are still possible. I'm highly confident that the upcoming summer WILL NOT be as hot and dry as last year.. more specifics on my spring and summer outlooks soon. Now, let's keep this thread alive and let us know what's happening weather wise in your neighbourhood.

[debbie at bouontiful]

Thank you rocky!

[SluggoF16]

Sure do hope you're right about a wetter summer. No fun battling fires last year and dealing with fire restrictions this year.

At 3:15 PM today the dust cloud moved in here in Comanche Co. w/ 40+ gusts. Similar to a few weeks ago.

[rockyinyourradio]

Had 50-55mph gusts with the passage of the dry line here 5mi. NW of Piedmont just before 4pm. Visibilities down to around 5 miles in blowing dust currently as of 4:17pm. Infact, as I type, winds are gusting easily to 50mph. Allegedly, winds gusting almost to 70 in the OKC area, probably the result of a microburst associated with the thunderstorms that have fired up along the dryline.

As I expected, models are bouncing around on the upcoming cool down for next week. I'll see how the trends go before throwing in the towel on the return of winter. As of now, still guardedly sticking to my predictions per my earlier post. I am concerned that there will be a higher chance that instead of us being bathed in a late winter Canadian chill.. we'll be in the battleground of air masses.. data suggests a very active pattern that could feature some severe weather but also a chance of wintry precip. too. Again, this would be roughly between Feb. 26-March 5th.
More to follow.

[SluggoF16]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

As I expected, models are bouncing around on the upcoming cool down for next week. I'll see how the trends go before throwing in the towel on the return of winter. As of now, still guardedly sticking to my predictions per my earlier post. I am concerned that there will be a higher chance that instead of us being bathed in a late winter Canadian chill.. we'll be in the battleground of air masses.. data suggests a very active pattern that could feature some severe weather but also a chance of wintry precip. too. Again, this would be roughly between Feb. 26-March 5th.
More to follow.

Irony: Last week through the end of this week we are hosting Canadian Forward Air Controllers. They lost a couple days of hands-on training and air controls last week due to low ceilings and snow/icing. They should definitely enjoy the rest of this week, though. May be downright summer-like for some of them.

Any long-range progs for 2-3 Mar 2012? Narrowing down the range of dates.