[rockyinyourradio]

With permission from the moderator, being that a few other states and cities have their own Weather thread on City Data, I thought I could start one here for Oklahoma, as abruptly the weather can change (just think about this past year, 2011!) and who knows what meteorological mayhem may lurk for 2012. I'm hoping this can be an ongoing thread for when the weather gets interesting and will be a guide for those who are contemplating a trip or a move to our great state.

I myself am a total weather junkie. I attempted a degree at the University of Oklahoma back in the early 80's but my math skills were shall I say, lacking.
I do have a better knowledge than most non-degreed meteorologists, but I still have lots to learn. I'm especially familiar with Oklahoma weather and it's extremes, I also post for the Seattle CD under their weather thread as I'm getting a keen interest in their weather as well. I also did weather reports for a radio station in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and averaged about a 65% accuracy rate (at least within the ball park) and of course there were times I bombed, just like the most seasoned of weather folks. So, whenever I can, I'll take a crack at throwing a dart at the dart board and see where it lands. Of course, to keep this going, your input is vital, so it wouldn't be complete without you. In the meantime my first contribution to how I think the next few weeks pans out and my rough guess on the upcoming year:

In the short term, A nice cool down for a couple of days but overall I see above normal temperatures with little precipitation until at least January 12th or so.. infact, I strongly believe the period we've just gone through with beneficial rains have temporarily come to an end here in Oklahoma. I see the first 10 days at least running about 6 to 10 degrees above average. Our normal temperatures in the Oklahoma City area are about 47 for a high and 27 for a low. We'll easily see a return to 60's maybe even 70 later this week before another cool down comes by next weekend. Little if any rain is expected except maybe some east of US 75.

Further ahead.. I see a good possibility of colder temperatures after Jan 12-15th.. a significant cool down across much of the country is anticipated with the exception of the Southwest and maybe Fla. We'll be in the battleground of air masses with large temperature swings that could go from lows in the teens to highs near 70 in the state, There is a chance that storminess may increase but I'm very guarded on that now, but this pattern coming up starting in 2 weeks would suggest the potential for some snow but more likely freezing rain. As of now, I put the possibility of a ice or snow event after Jan. 15th to 25th at about 25%. I'll post more on that as the time comes.

Further ahead... We may very well have some lengthy periods of quiet and mild weather toward the end of January and February but I have a feeling that March could be very active with considerably more rain, snow maybe ice and even severe weather. Just a gut instinct and based on long term weather patterns that may evolve, we'll see how that pans out. I do see a gradual alleviation of the drought but potentially another hot dry summer may be on tap, but not as bad as last year... hopefully. I think overall drought conditions could expand into the central and northern plains and upper midwest this next summer unless they start getting alot more moisture, that may cause hotter than normal conditions here in Oklahoma if that materializes. The possibility of an El Nino for next winter is there, and that would be a good thing for Oklahoma, normally that means above average moisture for us.

So, hopefully we'll see where this goes with the moderators permission. Look forward to your contributions as simple as that might be. Have a very Happy New Year and may 2012 be a more prosperous one for you.

[Zachj7]

Nice idea!

The OU program is veeeeery difficult, the best in the nation. I am actually in the program myself. I think we started out with around 130 studends in my class, we are down to 50 or so, and will probably end up graduating 30ish. Many students find the program along with the math too much which is understandable. I myself find it very challenging and will stick through it till the finish as I have wanted to become a meteorologist since as long as I can remember.

Anyways, I will add to this thread when I can. I mostly lurk and read, but now that I live in Oklahoma, weather just got a whole lot more interesting than humdrum California weather.

[SluggoF16]

Originally Posted by Zachj7

Nice idea!


Anyways, I will add to this thread when I can. I mostly lurk and read, but now that I live in Oklahoma, weather just got a whole lot more interesting than humdrum California weather.

Agreed. We always felt bad for TV weather forecasters in AZ in the late spring until the summer monsoon started; it could have been a recording. "Today it will be sunny, and the same for tomorrow, and the day after, etc, with temps in the high 90s..."

Today's Lawton Constitution headline: "Weather Dominated 2011", with the sub-line "From drought to tornadoes to earthquakes, we had it all". I personally don't consider earthquakes to be weather, never studied them in my meteorology classes (college minor), but Intellicast reports them. Who'd have thought a significant tornado would hit OK in early November? (Pic is from north of Indiahoma, 7 Nov 2011)

[rockyinyourradio]

Thanks Sluggo and Zach for adding to this. The OU program is definitely the tops in the nation. What's crazy is that most of the math you need to graduate you never really use unless your getting into research. I look forward to future additions from you guys but being that this forum has a broad spectrum of contributors, most of whom has a layman's knowledge of weather, we'll keep it basic and to the point.

Today's data does give me more confidence that winter will make an appearance when Canada "springs a leak" in about 12 -14 days, give or take a day. I'm not liking the growing potential of an ice event toward the following weekend ( Jan. 13-15th) give or take a day or two.. I'm becoming highly confident that regardless if the ice or snow scenario unfolds, we'll at least be on the cusp of some very chilly air by that time but currently the lack of substantial snow cover just to our north will negate temperatures from tanking into brutal cold territory. Between now and then, above normal temperatures commencing Tue. with highs into the low 70's in central and SW OK. Thurs.&Fri. before a meager cool down by next weekend, little or no moisture for about 10-14 days until possible ice and/or snow near the following weekend.


Feel free to ask questions or your input anything weatherwise on here and hopefully with enough activity the moderator will make it a "sticky" Hope everyone has had a happy and safe New Year!

[msbobbie]

I am in SE Oklahoma (LeFlore County) and feel the weather depends on where you live in Oklahoma. We do not get much of the extremes here.

My home is about a mile (as the crow flies) east of the town of Poteau. There is a river (really just a stream) and a railroad track between my home and town; there are times the streets in town will flood and I won't even know it rained.

[debbie at bouontiful]

I sure miss snow and I hate heat which seems to be Southeast Oklahoma's only weather Hot and Hot. Of course when it does change, it brings tornadoes. You weather guys must love that! This last summer I studied the weather daily hoping one of the storms would come my way and fill a pond or two so I wouldn't have to water cows all day long....

Please do not tell me about ice storms, can't take another one of those.

[StillwaterTownie]

Originally Posted by debbie at bouontiful

Please do not tell me about ice storms, can't take another one of those.

It was amazing how Stillwater since 2000 has barely dodged getting hit by two ice storms.

This spring, we'll find out bad the drought destroyed or damaged trees and other perennials. It's believed in Texas, which was even harder hit by drought, that many millions of trees died off.

To predict something for the winter, I predict there will be no below zero temperature lows in central Oklahoma. And oh, yeah, no blizzards!

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by StillwaterTownie

It was amazing how Stillwater since 2000 has barely dodged getting hit by two ice storms.

This spring, we'll find out bad the drought destroyed or damaged trees and other perennials. It's believed that in Texas, which was even harder hit by drought, that many millions of trees died off.

To predict something for the winter, I predict there will be no below zero temperature lows in central Oklahoma.

I lost two of my Silver Maples this past summer, pretty sure they are done for. Some Cottonwood trees on either side of my property croaked too, and they are more resilient to the heat. I agree that it's highly unlikely we'll get below zero this winter. Until last winter, we weren't below zero since Feb. 1996. Ironically there were similar weather patterns then but the deep snowpack greatly enhanced the cooling. Haven't looked at any data tonight but I still am increasingly confident that we'll see quite a cool down the following weekend and a chance for some ice at least here in central and northern OK. As of now, we may see 1 or 2 days at or just below freezing for highs and around 12-16F for lows in central OK. during the height of this cool down around mid month. Keep in mind this far out, the data can really change and for all I know, we may stay just to the south of the front keeping us mild and dry. I'll have a better handle on this within 5 to 7 days. Until then, it's all guess work.

[rockyinyourradio]

Brief update.. looks like colder weather coming in around mid month still on track. The worst of the cold may initially stay just to our north and east initially but my guess is that within a month, and especially if a good snowcover from KS. on north can be established (still very much in question), I think a respectable and substantial cold outbreak is in the offing after Jan. 15 and we'll see periodic significant polar outbreaks on and off into mid February. Ice storm potential doesn't look as good THANKFULLY! I still see minimal amounts of moisture for the next two weeks over most of the state with the exception of the southeast part of the state. One thing I'm highly confident on is an overall cooler weather pattern from Jan. 15th into early February. We'll be in the battleground of air masses so look for big swings in temperatures as discussed in my original post.

If you have questions about anything weather related, comments, musings of any sort, feel free to contribute. I don't want this to be about me and my forecasts only. Looking forward to any input from the moderator and wonder if maybe this will have more exposure under the Tulsa and Oklahoma City sections instead of just Oklahoma.

[Goodpasture]

So, when do we get snow?



or maybe some rain?