[debbie at bouontiful]

We have had a few good down pours too here in Eastern OK. (I am west of McAlester near Stuart, OK)

[SluggoF16]

As usual the biggest line of TSTMs started over Lawton and drifted east. 0.07" precip between Indiahoma and Cache, Comanche County. Max high was 20.4C (69F). However, at the house we had dime-sized hail at 1:30 PM, lasted all of a minute.

[educator1953]

Nice, calm, sunny day here in southwest Oklahoma. 54 degrees. I went for a walk, and the weather was perfect for it.

[rockyinyourradio]

Greetings! Been busy with work and the new granddaughter so I haven't been paying as much attention to the weather until today. I'm still patiently waiting on our pattern change that I've been harping on since my first post.. I'm still sticking to my guns that we'll get some sort of winter weather event before we get into the spring season. What's interesting is that most of the North American continent is one of the few places in the northern hemisphere north of 30N. latitude that's been above normal in temperatures, with the exception of Alaska and northwestern Canada. The rest of the country overall as seen below normal snowfall and above normal temperatures. The ongoing cold wave and prolific amounts of snow in much of Europe, Russia and China has been nothing short of epic. Long range data continues to hint that we may very well get our turn as we get toward the end of Feb. and I still think March will be something to behold for a good part of the country and even here in Oklahoma. As soon as next week, we'll see an uptick in disturbances coming down from a strengthening polar jetstream and potentially a significant rain event may be in the offing. As far as any kind of outstandingly cold weather.. I just don't see it now for here in Oklahoma, but it will be close enough to bear watching.

In the short term, a cold front comes through tomorrow and the chance is there for a wintry mix to light snow from a Weatherford to Blackwell line on northwest. A few flurries are possible in the OKC area tomorrow evening. Overall precipitation amounts generally under a tenth of an inch. The rest of the week looks tranquil but with moderately below normal temperatures. Places like Duncan and Cache could be down to around 20F Thursday morning and out east, Poteau and McAlester could be also close to 20 in the low lying areas outside of town if skies clear and the winds die down. The rest of the week averaging about 3 to 6 degrees below average.

As I said, next week looks potentially more active and enough cold air lurks to the north that the option of snow is not off the table for especially northern and western Okla. Around Valentines Day and later that next week look interesting for at least more beneficial rainfall. Keep in mind, computer models this far out can and will likely change, but my hunch is we are getting closer to the pattern change that will remind us that Oklahoma's weather can change on a dime, so keep those coats handy.

Thanks for the contributions to this thread in keeping it alive. I'll follow up with another fearless prediction by this weekend. Keep smiling!!

[rockyinyourradio]

Models continue to indicate a rainy, chilly week next week (Feb.12-17th). Enough cold air is nearby that the threat of snow and maybe even some ice could be possible. Most likely area now for snow and ice is generally north of I-44. As of now, Sunday evening and Monday look like the best potential for snow and/or ice. I do not expect this to be a major event and frankly, I still think we have a 50/50 chance of the freezing line remaining just north of Okla. Later next week, another system may give us a significant rain event and perhaps some thunderstorms. Total rainfall amounts as of now look to be in the 1 to 2 inch range for all of next week, maybe more in SE Okla. If we can continue this pattern of rainfall we've been getting into March.. (and I believe we will), the chances of the hellish drought we experienced last year maybe all but a dusty memory by June. Infact, I'm beginning to have concerns that we may experience a potentially stormy spring.. and you know what that can bring. More on that in a future post. By the way, the wheat here in northern Canadian County and Kingfisher County looks FANTASTIC! Let's hope this keeps up.

As of now, around 43F with a chilly light rain here at the farm 5 mi. NW of Piedmont. Slight chance of a stray flake right before it ends by early evening.

[Goodpasture]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

.......Been busy with work and the new granddaughter so I haven't been paying as much attention to the weather

I just wanna say thanks for all the good info you do provide, however, under NO circumstances should you forgo granddaughter time. If I get REALLY concerned about the weather I can always go back to "ole reliable".......stick your hand out the window....if it gets wet its raining, if it turns blue, its freezing; if it turns warm and painfully pink its sunny, if you can't see it, its night......using that technique I've never been wrong.......not like I know what is happening tomorrow, but that window will still be there then.

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by Goodpasture

I just wanna say thanks for all the good info you do provide, however, under NO circumstances should you forgo granddaughter time. If I get REALLY concerned about the weather I can always go back to "ole reliable".......stick your hand out the window....if it gets wet its raining, if it turns blue, its freezing; if it turns warm and painfully pink its sunny, if you can't see it, its night......using that technique I've never been wrong.......not like I know what is happening tomorrow, but that window will still be there then.

I appreciate that Goodpasture.. the granddaughter is doing well but was about two weeks premature, so my daughter and us have her in good hands..
Just saw one of our local channels weather report and they are really amping up for a big snowfall on Sunday/Monday.. I'll need to look at the models more closely because what I'm seeing still leaves lots of questions about this coming to pass.. However, I'm quite certain next week looks interesting for moisture and the snow will not be far away if it doesn't snow here in OKC or Tulsa.

[rockyinyourradio]

A quick update: Models up to yesterday has under estimated the strength of this upcoming cold shot, we'll have the coldest night of the season tonight. Down to 8-10F for Ponca City, 15F for OKC, 17 for Tulsa and upper teens for southeastern and south central OK. Then the fun and games get started with what will be an ice/snow event for much of the state initially before quickly turning to rain starting Sunday evening and then on to Monday. OKC and Tulsa will likely have travel issues Monday morning, be ready for that. I do see this as a minimal impact event but the roads will be bad enough potentially that some schools may close or delay their openings on Monday. Still a chance that enough warm air gets mixed in that we'll be above freezing in time for Mon. AM commute.. it will be a close call. Wouldn't be surprised if a winter storm watch is issued for a good part of the state for Sunday evening/Monday morning.

Further ahead.. my advertised pattern change is here, I see a 2-3 week period of unsettled weather every few days but the real cold air is lacking except maybe by month's end. Then again, I didn't see this 8-18F degree temps. for tonight just a few days ago. More soon.

[#1soonerfan]

Thank you for the update rockinyourradio.

The meterologisits in OKC have really been hyperventalating about this one (it is February Sweeps on the networks), so its nice to get the honest outlook.

[educator1953]

49 degrees here in Duncan with a stiff breeze blowing and the sun shining. Wonder what tomorrow will bring?