[debbie at bouontiful]

Originally Posted by _redbird_

I welcome the occasional freezing rain and ice storms. I get to stay home during those days! As long as we don't lose our electricity, we are okay.

They take forever to the lights back on in the rural areas.

total agreement. Also besides lights out for 2 weeks try feeding cows on ice! Although, like you I would love to see some really cold weather (without wind of course) right now.

[rockyinyourradio]

Looks as though any soaking rain that might occur will be confined to areas south and east of a I-40/US 75 line. Up to a half inch for Idabel on up to maybe Poteau. Here in the central sections of the state, not much at all, barely enough to wet the ground for today into tomorrow morning.

As for the impending chill down, now think the core of the cold will stay to our north and east. We'll see us in the battleground of air masses, but predominately, the warmth will win over most sections, hence will continue above normal and overall rainfall will be lacking. The following week I'll be watching another system to make it's way toward OK. but as of now, nothing major. The only good thing about all of this is I don't have to pull a wheel barrow full of horse dung through the mud!! that chore alone is one less day needed at the gym.

[rockyinyourradio]

Despite it being close to 70 today here in OKC.. (I have 70F here 5 miles NW of Piedmont!) Today is not a record high.. warmest temperature today is 76F back in 1894. Looks like we'll be in weather whiplash mode for tomorrow as it will be actually below normal for a couple of days, then rocketing above normal again by Wednesday and especially next weekend we may see near 80F if we get enough sun and low enough humidity in parts of central Okla. Today, its up to 77F in Altus and Hobart!. Fire danger will be increasing and the chances of wild fires will be high by this weekend.

A strong storm system will begin to affect the region starting on Sunday evening and will likely peak on Monday unless the storm slows down or speeds up. Measurable rainfall will be likely but I'm not expecting much at the moment, that could change. Thunderstorms will be possible and even some severe weather not out of the question if the timing of the system is right to take advantage of maximum heating if we can get some breaks in the cloud cover. Most likely chance of severe weather IF this materializes will be south and east of I-35 and I-40 and increasing chances once below the Red River east of I-35. This for next Monday Jan. 23. This may very well be adjusted but I'm confident that we'll at least see some rain on this day. I'll keep you updated on this in a few days.

Please feel free to contribute to this thread. Any questions or comments are welcome. I may migrate this to the OKC and Tulsa sections if it's okay with the MOD. to get more exposure. Have a blessed day!

[debbie at bouontiful]

If you migrate this to the OKC Tulsa sections, please keep it on the OK section. I am down near the McAlester area so I do not look at either of those too often. But, if you do I'll have to check them.

Thank you for your updates, I do look forward to reading them. I guess this will be a no snow winter which is disappointing to me.
Debbie

[beasleb]

Originally Posted by Zachj7

Nice idea!

The OU program is veeeeery difficult, the best in the nation. I am actually in the program myself. I think we started out with around 130 studends in my class, we are down to 50 or so, and will probably end up graduating 30ish. Many students find the program along with the math too much which is understandable. I myself find it very challenging and will stick through it till the finish as I have wanted to become a meteorologist since as long as I can remember.

Anyways, I will add to this thread when I can. I mostly lurk and read, but now that I live in Oklahoma, weather just got a whole lot more interesting than humdrum California weather.

Hey Zach -- I like your post. I always wanted to be a meteorologist myself. Then, I saw the math requirements! Yikes! So, long story short...I'm an insurance agent who is now finishing his Bachelor's degree in Sociology. Even so, I can still chase storms from time to time!

[beasleb]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

With permission from the moderator, being that a few other states and cities have their own Weather thread on City Data, I thought I could start one here for Oklahoma, as abruptly the weather can change (just think about this past year, 2011!) and who knows what meteorological mayhem may lurk for 2012. I'm hoping this can be an ongoing thread for when the weather gets interesting and will be a guide for those who are contemplating a trip or a move to our great state.

I myself am a total weather junkie. I attempted a degree at the University of Oklahoma back in the early 80's but my math skills were shall I say, lacking.
I do have a better knowledge than most non-degreed meteorologists, but I still have lots to learn. I'm especially familiar with Oklahoma weather and it's extremes, I also post for the Seattle CD under their weather thread as I'm getting a keen interest in their weather as well. I also did weather reports for a radio station in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and averaged about a 65% accuracy rate (at least within the ball park) and of course there were times I bombed, just like the most seasoned of weather folks. So, whenever I can, I'll take a crack at throwing a dart at the dart board and see where it lands. Of course, to keep this going, your input is vital, so it wouldn't be complete without you. In the meantime my first contribution to how I think the next few weeks pans out and my rough guess on the upcoming year:

In the short term, A nice cool down for a couple of days but overall I see above normal temperatures with little precipitation until at least January 12th or so.. infact, I strongly believe the period we've just gone through with beneficial rains have temporarily come to an end here in Oklahoma. I see the first 10 days at least running about 6 to 10 degrees above average. Our normal temperatures in the Oklahoma City area are about 47 for a high and 27 for a low. We'll easily see a return to 60's maybe even 70 later this week before another cool down comes by next weekend. Little if any rain is expected except maybe some east of US 75.

Further ahead.. I see a good possibility of colder temperatures after Jan 12-15th.. a significant cool down across much of the country is anticipated with the exception of the Southwest and maybe Fla. We'll be in the battleground of air masses with large temperature swings that could go from lows in the teens to highs near 70 in the state, There is a chance that storminess may increase but I'm very guarded on that now, but this pattern coming up starting in 2 weeks would suggest the potential for some snow but more likely freezing rain. As of now, I put the possibility of a ice or snow event after Jan. 15th to 25th at about 25%. I'll post more on that as the time comes.

Further ahead... We may very well have some lengthy periods of quiet and mild weather toward the end of January and February but I have a feeling that March could be very active with considerably more rain, snow maybe ice and even severe weather. Just a gut instinct and based on long term weather patterns that may evolve, we'll see how that pans out. I do see a gradual alleviation of the drought but potentially another hot dry summer may be on tap, but not as bad as last year... hopefully. I think overall drought conditions could expand into the central and northern plains and upper midwest this next summer unless they start getting alot more moisture, that may cause hotter than normal conditions here in Oklahoma if that materializes. The possibility of an El Nino for next winter is there, and that would be a good thing for Oklahoma, normally that means above average moisture for us.

So, hopefully we'll see where this goes with the moderators permission. Look forward to your contributions as simple as that might be. Have a very Happy New Year and may 2012 be a more prosperous one for you.

Hi there rockyinyourradio --
I'm not in Oklahoma, but I'm close...in Amarillo, just 230 miles from OKC. I'm a weather junkie, too. I'll be following your thread as the TX Panhandle weather is fairly similar to Oklahoma. And, if you want, you can throw in some information about both, your OK Panhandle that sits on top of my TX Panhandle. Your OK Panhandle definitely has the about the same weather as Amarillo!
Anyway, thanx again for starting the thread. I too hope 2012 is an interesting weather year like 2011, minus the fatalities, of course. Well wait and see!
Have a great week!

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by debbie at bouontiful

.... <snipped>
Thank you for your updates, I do look forward to reading them. I guess this will be a no snow winter which is disappointing to me.
Debbie

Don't write this winter off yet Debbie. Alaska has been in the deep freeze since Christmas and a chunk of the chill has broke off into the northeast Pacific and into the Pacific Northwest as I predicted from a few weeks back (I also contribute to the Seattle thread for their weather) This modified air mass is infiltrating much of the central and northern plains but we're on the fringe here in Oklahoma and down this way, the cold front which as of this post is into northern OK. will only last a couple of days. This arctic air mass will be teasing this part of the country for the next few weeks but the warmth will win out more than the cold.. HOWEVER, I see based in analogue years (years with similar weather patterns) that at some point almost always, we have at least one substantial cold shot that will be accompanied by some snow and/or ice.

I'm still banking on at least one of these episodes. Just when is anyone's guess. I'm thinking more like mid February to the first half of March. Some of Oklahoma's biggest snowstorms have even occurred in March. Down in your neck of the woods Debbie, has had substantial snows into the middle of March and I think we'll see at least one snowfall between roughly Feb. 15 to March 15th; at least here in central and/or northern Okla.

Meanwhile for now, aside from a brief cool down tomorrow (1/17) and Wednesday (1/18) we will be excessively above normal and very dry.. I'm fearing within a couple of weeks, fire danger will be very high unless we can get a good soaking rain from this system slated for early next week.. which I'm guarded on right now.

I appreciate the comments and I'm humbled. I'll do my best to keep up on this but I do have other facets of my life to keep up on.. like making a living So I'll do my best not to let too long of a stretch go where I chime in.. hopefully we can get more people to toot their horn on here, if anything just to tell us what's up in their corner of the state. I'm thinking once the severe weather season gets going in early March, we'll see a good uptick in involvement here. Cheers!

[StillwaterTownie]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

I'm thinking once the severe weather season gets going in early March, we'll see a good uptick in involvement here. Cheers!

Don't rush the severe weather season. I don't think it starts until early April. But we do risk heavy snowstorms in early March for something severe.

[_redbird_]

Originally Posted by StillwaterTownie

Don't rush the severe weather season. I don't think it starts until early April. But we do risk heavy snowstorms in early March for something severe.

I am also wondering if this is going to be a no-snow winter for south central Oklahoma. Nothing in the next week or so. I think we are more likely to get freezing rain than a snow storm.

[rockyinyourradio]

Newest data I just analyzed continues to suggest a significant cool down that may interact with enough moisture that could give us some ice and/or snow in about 2 weeks. We call model data out this far "fantasy progs" as you can take very little stock in data this far out. However I am leaning on the Alaska and northwest Canada cold wave to spring a leak and spill into the lower 48 sometime soon. I'm quite confident this will happen, it's just a matter of when.

Meanwhile data still indicates a fairly strong storm system for early next week, moisture will be sparse but maybe enough for at least some rain and even a few thunderstorms for the Monday into early Tuesday time frame. Frozen precipitation is unlikely for this except maybe northern or northeast Okla. and if that does occur, amounts will be inconsequential. Temperatures this weekend, especially Sunday will easily make the 70's if the humidity is low enough and sunshine plentiful.