[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by debbie at bouontiful

I can't seem to understand El Nino. Does that mean more rain or less? Also does mean more heat? I looked it up on goggle but still am lost on the two.

Debbie, El Nino's.. which is a warming of the waters in the central and eastern Pacific usually, but not always means a wetter fall and winter for Oklahoma along with an unusual amount of cloudy, grey days. Sometimes, snow and ice can be higher than normal for us and into the mid south like Arkansas and Tennesse. The Deep South (Fla.AL. and GA.) can see a lot of rain and severe weather during the winter during such events. This El Nino coming up, which I still think according to the latest data will happen, is a little different. The water temperatures that are above normal will be more focused across the central Pacific than the east. This can have some interesting ramifications as not only can we see above normal moisture, but can cause some wild gyrations in the jet stream patterns. The Modokai El Nino.. which is what this el nino we'll be experiencing is called, will at best be on the low end of a moderate one. Just enough to add to the fun and games of forecasting this winter. Some climatologists are calling for a winter similar to 2009-10. Remember the Christmas Eve blizzard in '09? If all the analogues from past years, including '09-'10 come to pass, this may truly be a winter we'll remember. Don't forget though.. I'm going off data and analogues (comparing years past with similar weather patterns and cycles) .. and computer model data is fallible at best.

[debbie at bouontiful]

Thank you Rocky and we did get 5 and 1/2 inches of rain total for yesterday and last night combined.

[SluggoF16]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

... The Modokai El Nino.. which is what this el nino we'll be experiencing is called, will at best be on the low end of a moderate one. Just enough to add to the fun and games of forecasting this winter. Some climatologists are calling for a winter similar to 2009-10. Remember the Christmas Eve blizzard in '09? If all the analogues from past years, including '09-'10 come to pass, this may truly be a winter we'll remember...

Maybe I should do as my wife says and start cutting firewood now...

2.2" in SW OK since Tuesday.

[StillwaterTownie]

Originally Posted by debbie at bouontiful

Thank you Rocky and we did get 5 and 1/2 inches of rain total for yesterday and last night combined.

I wish Stillwater didn't usually get bypassed by most of the rain when it tries to move in. Stillwater only got around .60".

[rockyinyourradio]

Looks like not just Stillwater gets bypassed, but according to the last few runs of the computer models, now suggests that the anticipated cool down and more rain for next week... is no longer anticipated for any part of the state. Instead, we go into a steamy, hot pattern with only isolated storms at best,; pretty typical by August standards. Temperatures may very well flirt with or exceed 100F by the following weekend. I'm still thinking that changes are afoot in about 2 weeks as we transcend into a more active pattern where cool incursions and better precip. chances are possible. I'm still looking at increased chances of tropical development closer to Florida.. maybe the Gulf of Mexico.. how that affects our weather here in the Sooner State remains to be seen.

[debbie at bouontiful]

Originally Posted by SluggoF16

Maybe I should do as my wife says and start cutting firewood now...

2.2" in SW OK since Tuesday.

That is what my husband is doing now. He loves to cut firewood and almost cries when we have too warm of a winter.

[_redbird_]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

Looks like not just Stillwater gets bypassed, but according to the last few runs of the computer models, now suggests that the anticipated cool down and more rain for next week... is no longer anticipated for any part of the state. Instead, we go into a steamy, hot pattern with only isolated storms at best,; pretty typical by August standards. Temperatures may very well flirt with or exceed 100F by the following weekend. I'm still thinking that changes are afoot in about 2 weeks as we transcend into a more active pattern where cool incursions and better precip. chances are possible. I'm still looking at increased chances of tropical development closer to Florida.. maybe the Gulf of Mexico.. how that affects our weather here in the Sooner State remains to be seen.

I love the cool-downs! Keep 'em coming!

[Rubi3]

Seems to me this July has been unusually rainy... I've heard thunder so often and sure enough, it's not long before it's raining, more like June weather and the cooling remains, which is a treat.

[StillwaterTownie]

Originally Posted by Rubi3

Seems to me this July has been unusually rainy... I've heard thunder so often and sure enough, it's not long before it's raining, more like June weather and the cooling remains, which is a treat.

Sometimes the distant thunder I hear is really coming from an earthquake. You're fortunate if earthquakes are still so rare where you live that they don't get on your nerves.

[_redbird_]

I have yet to feel one Okie earthquake.

I don't think we have hit 100 degree temps here yet. We are between "the city" and McAlester. We have hit 99 a few times.