[debbie at bouontiful]

I can't seem to understand El Nino. Does that mean more rain or less? Also does mean more heat? I looked it up on goggle but still am lost on the two.

[Rubi3]

According to the National Climate Data Center all the conditions of l997 are building up in 2014 and are being carefully watched. Back then:

"Severe weather events included flooding in the

southeast, an ice storm in the northeast, flooding in California, and tornadoes in Florida. The

winter was dominated by an El Niño-influenced weather pattern, with wetter than normal

conditions across much of the southern third of the country and warmer than normal conditions

across much of the northern two-thirds of the country."

As mentioned in an earlier post, the Kelvin waves that are showing up are significant in forecasting an El Nino.

[teakboat]

From what I have read, it seems like it might be a weak El Nino, the climate seems not to be responding to it so much.

[Rubi3]

That's good news and I'm glad to know. The places where I looked maybe weren't so recent, but this site supports a much weaker situation. El Niño 2014: Climate alarmists disappointed | Communities Digital News

[teakboat]

Originally Posted by teakboat

I've said before that I think it is possible that we are entering a period of global cooling... I know that some discount the relationship of solar activity and climate but it seems to hold. And it's not about TSA. Add in the increased volcanic activity and things are getting really weird.

Yeah, I know this is 'weather', not climate, (unless it gets warm outside, then it is always climate) but stay tuned haha

Oops, that should have read "TSI" not TSA.

[nightbird47]

Originally Posted by teakboat

Oops, that should have read "TSI" not TSA.

Well, Icelantic volcanos have at least twice had very deep effects on the continent of Europe and North Americal when one of the super volcanos went. The winter in summer caused crops to fail and mass hunger and then came the political ramifications of the 'little ice age'. This preceeded starvation and then plague and then widespread war, and stands as a dividing line between the medieval world of before 1400 and after. Another example is the 'Year without Summer' which contributed to the mass starvation of the potato famine.

When super volcanos go they bring fire and smoke to the immediate vicinity, but cold to distant places.

[StillwaterTownie]

Around 2 1/2" of rain in Stillwater for the last two days. Some places in Oklahoma got well over 3 inches.

[SluggoF16]

Some flooding down here in the SW, in Cotton County. Radar estimates, which have some inherent erros, are up to 5 inches since Wednesday evening. Deep Red Creek near Walters crested at five feet above the flood stage. My total was about 1.2" over a two-day period. Could use more but no hard complaints.

[SluggoF16]

At 1203 PM here in SW OK the temperature was a balmy 90.1F with the dewpoint a New Orleans or Mobile-like 79.3F. Totally un-fun.

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by debbie at bouontiful

Are we coming out of the drought? I wish Rocky would come on with more information. I get so frantic anymore with summers. My husband keeps talking about El Nino or the other. which are we going into?

Still alive and reasonably well albeit a few minor health issues this summer, plus work and other things life has thrown my way, has precluded my presence here on City Data.

Glad to see this thread is at least remaining on the front page. As far as the weather is concerned.. If you have followed my earlier posts.. I eluded to a possible alleviation of the drought during this year, as at least some semblance of an el nino comes to fruition across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean..while our spells of rainy and unseasonably cool conditions is not entirely el nino driven, the jet stream patterns have been anomalously pushed to the south by a frequently reoccurring eastern trough of low pressure and the "heat dome" or high pressure that has been suppressed to the west. Mix that, with higher than normal moisture moving north not just from the gulf, but also the eastern Pacific which is at least somewhat responsible to the budding el nino; thus you have the ingredients for some much blessed relief from the last few summer's extreme heat. In honesty, I did not see the above normal rain and subnormal temperatures coming this early, so in a way, I feel my summer forecast fell short.. but I rather be wrong in this manner than if we had no rain and searing heat.. which I also did not expect.

Looking ahead to August.. we'll be wrapping up this latest rain event by Thursday evening, but not before a total of 4 to 5 inches locally in parts of east central into southeast Okla. With all the ground moisture, grasses will be much greener than usual for this time of year, and that yields more moisture into the lower levels of the atmosphere.. which makes for some exceptionally humid days to come as we heat back up to more typical temperatures for early August (90 to 94F). Dewpoints will be running in the 70-75F range by early next week with isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two over the eastern half of the state. Then starting around Thursday August 7th.. what will be yet another incursion of modified polar air that may make it's way into at least the northern parts of the state, and with it, another round of rain is likely. I do not see this being a gully washer of a system like this, but the chances of some wet weather is a good bet by the end of next week. Best chances of this occurring will generally north of I-40.

For the rest of August.. I see an overall normal temperature, normal rainfall scenario. There is a chance for another cool front or two to flirt with the state with attendant rains, but I see the possibility of a reasonable stretch (10-14 days) of normal to slightly above normal temps during the middle to latter part of the month but also a chance of some pop up showers and thunderstorms just because of the humidity that will be unseasonably high. I will be paying more attention to the tropics though, not just the Gulf of Mexico but for recurving Pacific tropical systems as well. Chances may increase after about the 20th for tropical activity in the gulf.

I still am confident that as we move into September and October, for at least one heavy rain/flooding event to occur somewhere in Oklahoma which will likely be driven by dissipating tropical systems from the gulf but even more likely, the Pacific. It wouldn't surprise me that our fall coming up may end up being excessively above normal rainfall wise with best chances from an Elk City, Okeene, Perry, Tulsa line on south. I also see the potential for some unusual chill in October and especially November. So an early frost (mid October?) is not out of the question.

As for winter.. still expecting (about 60% chance) of a slightly to moderately colder than normal winter, especially early on.. December could be a doozy, but as we go through winter, chances are we'll be closer to normal both in temp. and moisture.

Even further ahead.. as I stated in earlier posts.. we are in a weather cycle a lot like what we had in the 1930's, 1950's and 70's now, where periodic drought was severe and unusual swings from anomalous cold to hot were the norm. This is chiefly because of oceanic temperature cycles in the Pacific and to a lesser degree, the Atlantic, the prime drivers of weather cycles coming and going.. also, the sun has a notable part in this as it too has it's cycles. We are coming off a solar maximum now that was even less dramatic than forecasted. Speaking of the sun, there are now growing concerns that we may be entering a "solar minimum" starting in just a few short years. Where this takes us is anyone's guess. Some are forecasting a "mini ice age" by around 2040, where us Oklahoman's will be seeing more of a winter that would be typical of say, Omaha or Des Moines.. now that would be something. I'm not holding my breath.. if I have any in me by then. Anyway.. A pretty decent chance that heat and drought may return by next summer and I think we run a pretty high risk over the next few years of extreme to exceptional drought at times before this cycle we're in abates, but such is life in Oklahoma..the weather always seems to make up for the long drought with a couple years of excessive rainfall.

Meanwhile, enjoy the September like weather for another day or two and the rain coming your way. This summer.. I can handle. .. and all is blessed here on the farm in Piedmont