[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by _redbird_

I love your posts, Rocky.

Even though I don't deserve those accolades, I'm humbled and appreciate you too Redbird. There are other folks who post far more than I, like Goodpasture whom I always look forward to his musings, whatever they may be.

Looked a little more into this cold pattern we're in, it's definitely remarkable, no doubt about it. I do now think as of today's model runs, this will be the coldest week of this initial arctic siege, Tonight and Thursday morning should be the coldest. Places like Stillwater may bottom out around 18F, Oilton around 16F and some of the low lying areas around McAlester could see 18-22F Thursday morning before a slow warm up through the weekend, into the 40's for highs and 23-30 for lows. The system slated for Saturday thru Sunday won't amount to much as far as precipitation but at least an initial winter mix is certainly possible here in central OK. Tulsa area on north and east may see an inch or two of snow though during that time frame. Overall, I'm going for no more than .10-.25 of an inch of moisture total.. and that's stretching it. I do now see a brief moderation starting Monday before another reinforcement of chill comes the middle of next week which may also offer a spattering of moisture.

Looking further ahead, I'll take a stab at our upcoming winter. It's highly likely we will see some very impressive arctic outbreaks. Most likely time will be late December through the first half of January, then quite possibly a couple of weeks in February could feature some impressive cold too. I give it an even 50/50 chance that OKC will experience 1 maybe 2 nights right around 0F (without the windchill) and Tulsa up to 3 nights between -5 to 0F. This will easily be achieved if we have a snow cover which under optimum conditions (calm wind, clear skies) promotes radiational cooling at a faster pace. Remember the infamous arctic outbreak in Feb. 2011 when Oklahoma set a new all time record cold temperature, Nowata hit -31F, that was achieved with 18 inches of snow on the ground under clear skies and no wind. That won't happen again this winter, nor probably will it in our life times.. but I can see -10F easily somewhere in northeast Okla. sometime in Jan. or Feb.

I have some real concerns about moisture for this winter. Too many years with similar set up's like we have now, had lots of cold, but little rain/snow. I think that will be the rule this season, but that doesn't mean we won't have an occasional period or two of rain/ice and snow. I have several very qualified degreed meteorologists on my Facebook. We confer with each other on our prognostications.. some of these folks are just sort of certain that we will see some hefty amounts of snow and ice, up to 200% of normal (which would be anywhere from 12-24 inches for this winter). I am going for about 8-10 inches total for OKC and 10-14 inches for Tulsa.. this could happen literally with two or three good storm systems, but much more often than not, several of these arctic attacks will simply be "blue northers" with very little if any moisture. What is different about this winter coming up over the last, is a slight el nino based in the central equatorial Pacific. This will *hopefully* induce a moisture laden subtropical jet stream that may make it into Oklahoma, hence part of the reason why my forecasted snowfall totals for Tulsa and OKC. Lets hope so for the farmers.. and us snow freaks like yours truly

There are some indications that we could have a wetter period commencing just shortly after the 1rst of December, but I see milder weather too by then, but yet, we'll be grazed by some polar and arctic fronts as we go through December. Don't look for anything extended as far as unsettled, stormy periods, but be prepared for at least one substantial ice storm somewhere in the state. This kind of pattern has yielded some significant ice in the past, December may be a month to watch for that. If we do go for long stretches without appreciable moisture and one of these blue northers rockets down the plains that has a Siberian connection, I'll have some big concerns for our winter wheat, which without at least a little snow to protect it from the harsh cold, may not bode well for wheat farmers.

I'll continue to monitor for changes that are afoot and post when time allows.. please keep this thread alive with what your experiencing and any questions you may have. Thanks again.

[rockyinyourradio]

About an inch of snow this morning so far here at the farm, 5 miles NW of Piedmont. 22 degrees F, Winchills near 10F. Another 1 inch possible. Moderating temps. commence mid week. More than likely, a storm system will affect the eastern half of Oklahoma next weekend with some rain and thunder possible. West of I-35, expect little if any moisture for at least the next week, probably longer. Temperatures will warm up into the 50's by next weekend maybe even near 60 in the southeastern third of the state followed by cooler temps. behind the storm system for next weekend.

Could be a vigorous storm system with an array of winter weather early to middle part of Thanksgiving week for parts of the midwest into the Great Lakes and possible severe weather for KY., TN. into the deep south. I do see an overall moderating trend for here in Oklahoma; definitely warmer than now.. but at best just a few degrees below average by Thanksgiving. Have an awesome day and stay warm.

[Goodpasture]

A little snow and freezing temps? Listening to news reports there have been lots of accidents in Tulsa. Guess this time of year brings out the turkeys, doesn't it?

[_redbird_]

Originally Posted by Goodpasture

A little snow and freezing temps? Listening to news reports there have been lots of accidents in Tulsa. Guess this time of year brings out the turkeys, doesn't it?

This is a million dollar morning. It is 18 degrees F., road conditions are slick, especially for us who commute on the back highways, and I don't have to get up and go to work. Ahhhhhh! Yesss. Retirement's the life for me.

[nightbird47]

Originally Posted by _redbird_

This is a million dollar morning. It is 18 degrees F., road conditions are slick, especially for us who commute on the back highways, and I don't have to get up and go to work. Ahhhhhh! Yesss. Retirement's the life for me.

The light snow that fell yesterday is still here. It's very good I got the new zipper sewn into my inside jacket. Drinking lots of hot coffee. The critters are grouping to stay toasty. History 2 is free on dish this month so I have lots recorded to watch. Made the rest of the potroast in a tasty stew. So long as you get to be inside and warm, not a bad day at all.

[rockyinyourradio]

Still on board for a significant rain event for areas basically east of Hwy 177 and south of Hwy 33 from Saturday through early Sunday morning. An isolated thunderstorm with marginally severe hail (1 inch diameter+) not out of the question especially in SE Okla. where instability will be greatest. Right now, maximum rain totals, from 1/2 inch to locally 2 inches. From Blackwell to Durant on west, projected amounts decrease but should see at least some moisture. From Sayre to Freedom on west.. hardly a drop. NE Okla. like Tulsa, Bartlesville to Miami should see around 1/2 inch maybe locally an inch.

Thanksgiving should be dry. One model has a strong cold front coming through dry, another has us seasonably mild and also dry.

Still concerned about the previously mentioned storm producing some major severe weather for Tennessee to Alabama/Mississippi. Has all the earmarks for a lot of tornadic weather but lack of deep moisture and cool temps. should preclude that.. but not entirely.. This still could get mighty interesting if temps. end up being warmer. More to come.

[educator1953]

I woke up about thirty minutes ago. We have thunder, lightning, and heavy rain still going strong.

This is wonderful. I wouldn't mind if this lasted all day, but I know it won't. Hope you all get some of this rain! Have a good day.

[SluggoF16]

Originally Posted by educator1953

I woke up about thirty minutes ago. We have thunder, lightning, and heavy rain still going strong.

This is wonderful. I wouldn't mind if this lasted all day, but I know it won't. Hope you all get some of this rain! Have a good day.

Same. Would've been nicer if it had been August and not November.

Not sure if it's the dryness of the soil, the on-and-off nature of the storms or what, but 2.7" of rain so far and no flooding. Cattle tanks are partly filling.

[rockyinyourradio]

Coldest morning of the season here just northwest of Piedmont at 10 degrees. A couple more arctic air masses between now and the middle of next week along with a threat for some snow and maybe some ice for around Wednesday of next week give or take a day... then, a prolonged sustained warm up that may last for about 10 days or more. Preciptation as expected will remain overall.. below normal. I do see what may be a more active storm track shaping up giving Oklahoma some much needed moisture but nothing more than "average" amounts for this time of year should be expected. More to come, hope everyone had a good holiday season.

[debbie at bouontiful]

Thank you Rocky. Always checking to see if you have any new updates. Wouldn't mind a nice snow storm but no ice please!