[Bass&Catfish2008]

Originally Posted by msbobbie

I am in SE Oklahoma (LeFlore County) and feel the weather depends on where you live in Oklahoma. We do not get much of the extremes here.

My home is about a mile (as the crow flies) east of the town of Poteau. There is a river (really just a stream) and a railroad track between my home and town; there are times the streets in town will flood and I won't even know it rained.

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My home is about a mile (as the crow flies) east of the town of Poteau.
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Great area. Got me some kinfolk over that way.

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by Goodpasture

So, when do we get snow?

or maybe some rain?

Tonight's data still implies very meager chances this weekend here in Central OK. slightly better toward Tulsa and into Arkansas, but still not much. As of now, I don't see anything substantial until at least mid month and maybe longer. A week out may be some rain but amounts will be light. Computer model data is very inconsistent now for anything really past 8 to 10 days but I'm still banking on some "blue northers" that will drop the temperature like a rock for a couple of days starting this upcoming weekend only to have it come soaring back up. As I mentioned, ice and snow chances have come down but this type of pattern we'll be going into is conducive to big ice storms. Lets REALLY HOPE that doesn't transpire. I can't take another one of these apocalyptic ice events. My trees are already half shot from the drought this past summer. I'll keep you abreast of anything new.

[rockyinyourradio]

Still I'm guardedly optimistic for a pattern change commencing this weekend with a chance for occasional light rain on Sunday and/or Monday. As of now, maybe a tenth of an inch here in OKC, about a quarter inch possible in Tulsa area from Sunday to Tue. You folks in Poteau could actually get a soaking rain probably Mon-Tue. of next week which could amount to a half inch.

Was out in western OK. recently. The wheat looks really good for the most part. Hopefully we'll see something more substantial after mid month but I'm not overly confident of anything more than just enough to wet the ground a little. Typically January is our driest month with an average of about an inch and a third.

Colder weather still on tap next week and week after but I still think with the lack of a snowcover to our north, these air masses will modify considerably. Still, one of the models has central OK. dipping into the single digits and low teens about a week off from today. Not buying into that yet, but cooler weather for sure is coming. Stay tuned.

[debbie at bouontiful]

Does this rather warm weather here in SE OK mean another hot dry summer? I am actually seeing ticks now and hadn't during the summer.

[_redbird_]

Originally Posted by debbie at bouontiful

Does this rather warm weather here in SE OK mean another hot dry summer? I am actually seeing ticks now and hadn't during the summer.

I agree it is very warm here. Lows in the 40s. That's sitting outside weather! Still, I am going to enjoy it. Come summer, this perfect weather will be a memory. Best enjoy it while we can.

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by debbie at bouontiful

Does this rather warm weather here in SE OK mean another hot dry summer? I am actually seeing ticks now and hadn't during the summer.

As warm as it's been, that doesn't totally surprise me but I would think as chilly as it's been at night that the ticks would be killed off.

Concerning your question about this upcoming summer, it's too early to tell just how hot and dry our summer will be. In all the weather records I've gone through, I've never seen a drought what we have endured last ONLY one year. The infamous drought of the 1930's lasted about three years but did have a few brief wet periods during that time. Same thing in the 1950's. While not as bad as the 30's, it still had devastating effects that lasted also about three years. The 2010-11 drought was supposedly even worse than the 1930's in some areas, especially down in west Texas where some places only had 5 to 6 inches for the whole year. Slightly more than what Death Valley California receives!! My guess for this upcoming summer will be more heat and drought however, I can't possibly imagine it being as bad as last year. Why? First off, the strong La Nina we experienced last summer was a significant culprit to the intensity of the drought and was exacerbated by the major lack of rain leading up to the summer season. We entered summer with unusually dry ground which just radiates more heat back into the atmosphere, so by June, we were in a scenario where the drought was feeding on itself, hence the reason for the record high temperatures with little rain in many areas.. Now just today I saw the new La Nina outlook and most of the data sets indicate the La Nina will have all but vanished by late spring. This can make a notable difference in how our spring rains turn out. If we get at least close to normal rainfall, it will be great for wheat and other crops and the trees as well, this creates more moisture or what you call evapotranspiration. More moisture released into the atmosphere means much better chances of rain when low pressure systems move by. I am concerned about the lack of moisture going further north. Winters with much below normal snow sometimes lead to hot dry summers which can spread down this way to Oklahoma with time. Still way too early to give an official prediction on how this will pan out, but in summary.. I still think there will be drought and heat issues but not near as bad, and if my winter forecast verifies,(refer to my first post) I think that the latter part of February and March may feature above normal rain/snow. This will only help moisture conditions and alleviate potential drought patterns that may crop up as we go into the summer. I'll do my best to give my official summer forecast in May or by the first of June at latest if we can keep this thread going.

Originally Posted by _redbird_

I agree it is very warm here. Lows in the 40s. That's sitting outside weather! Still, I am going to enjoy it. Come summer, this perfect weather will be a memory. Best enjoy it while we can.

I think in the short term, today will be our last really mild day for awhile but I can easily see more days like this in a few weeks. I just looked at the newest data and I'm encouraged over the rainfall now being predicted for the late Sunday/Monday thru Tuesday timeframe. It's now conceivable up to an inch of rain may fall in areas south of I-40 and east of I-35 here in Oklahoma. Tuesday stands to be a pretty rainy, cool day which will be very welcomed by yours truly. The following week also sees some decent rain chances and unfortunately the dreaded "I" word may be coming into play; Freezing rain an increasing bet toward the following week but I still have a hunch that this big cool down that will certainly envelope a good portion of the country will only flirt with us. Model data is still very uncertain on just how cold it will get around here in OKC and Tulsa, but you can count on at least a couple of days with a nice invigorating chill to the air starting late Sunday/Monday and continuing on and off for at least 10 days to two weeks before a warmer period sets up.

[debbie at bouontiful]

Let us pray for rain this summer or I am selling all the cows!! I got about 1/4 the hay this year compared to normal years. Thanks goodness I had a lot to carry over but will not have any carry over this year. I really miss winters too. Use to live way up north and had no problems with minues temps.

Curious as to why we had so much rain just before summer. I think we had 6 inch rain falls around the Easter time and then it just stopped.

[rockyinyourradio]

Below is a link for the extremes of weather that took place in 2011 in the Tulsa national weather service region. A pretty fascinating read. Hopefully the weather will be a tad more tame this year!

Review of the Extreme Weather in 2011

[debbie at bouontiful]

Interesting link! Thank you!

[_redbird_]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

I think in the short term, today will be our last really mild day for awhile but I can easily see more days like this in a few weeks. I just looked at the newest data and I'm encouraged over the rainfall now being predicted for the late Sunday/Monday thru Tuesday timeframe. It's now conceivable up to an inch of rain may fall in areas south of I-40 and east of I-35 here in Oklahoma. Tuesday stands to be a pretty rainy, cool day which will be very welcomed by yours truly. The following week also sees some decent rain chances and unfortunately the dreaded "I" word may be coming into play; Freezing rain an increasing bet toward the following week but I still have a hunch that this big cool down that will certainly envelope a good portion of the country will only flirt with us. Model data is still very uncertain on just how cold it will get around here in OKC and Tulsa, but you can count on at least a couple of days with a nice invigorating chill to the air starting late Sunday/Monday and continuing on and off for at least 10 days to two weeks before a warmer period sets up.

I welcome the occasional freezing rain and ice storms. I get to stay home during those days! As long as we don't lose our electricity, we are okay.

They take forever to the lghts back on in the rual areas.