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This graphic should help.. You arent supposed to be fixed on 1 storm track that far out. Just look for consistency and trends. Each model will have its own solution and can be similar but dont expect an accuracy of within 100 miles more than 2 days out. Shoot, I've seen a big shift 24hrs out. Theres going to be headaches watching them for sure.
Overall the models did sniff out this storm but when people expect details to come to fruition so far out they'll be disappointed. With that said... Theres so many moving pieces out there. How about that High Pressure in the Northeast? What if it moves south 100 miles and is stronger than expected. Hence the model picking that up and adjusting the storm result.
Fascinating to see this evolve
Good graphic, just hoping the pattern delivers more snow after the record warm December. When you're as far south in latitude as I am the window for snow is not very long compared to areas along and north of 43N latitude east of the Rockies that have a far more substantial potential snow window.
I'm in southwestern New Hampshire (just outside of Keene) and for the past few days, our forecast has said 3-5" of snow on Sunday night plus 5-8" more on Monday daytime. Now it's down to 3-5" plus 3-5". Honestly, I hope by Saturday it's down to 1" plus 1"!
Cambium, is the snow going to be the light fluffy stuff -- or is it going to vary depending on location?
The closer you are to the storm track the lower the ratios will be (heavier wet snow). The latest GFS has the center of the storm going right over you. So you'll see the snow start out fluffy then get heavy wet type. If it keep trending east you'll be good for 12:1 ratios at least for entire event (fluffier snow)
Good graphic, just hoping the pattern delivers more snow after the record warm December. When you're as far south in latitude as I am the window for snow is not very long compared to areas along and north of 43N latitude east of the Rockies that have a far more substantial potential snow window.
Check out the data from latest GFS for Madison, IN which is NE of Louisville... 0.31" qpf of all snow. Not bad being that far away from the storm! That would be 2-3" using 12:1 ratios and losing 0.10" to Virga
Spoiler
EDIT:: Nevermind, that was the 18z. Whoops. Here's the latest 12z. Sorry. Less. Makes sense with the east more move.
Also surface goes above freezing Sunday 1pm with this run. It can drive you nuts looking at the details of these models. lol
New Euro12z is East more than its previous 00z run last night. And hello new trend. I went from rain to back to 3-5" snow now. lol That 6" line is getting closer.
And before you panic about that snow amount down south, this is based off 10:1 snow ratios. It would be heavier wet snow like 6 or 8:1 down there so less snow there but still, its showing snowfall and that should be a concern now.
Euro12z past 3 runs for Monday morning.
Latest update has the storm center over NW NJ instead of Maryland like yesterdays 12z run.
Euro 10:1 snow totals recent run vs previous.
Both GFS and Euro OP jogged East more today
Latest from the NWS WPC. Crippling ice storm for the Carolinas? Atlanta is not out of the woods yet either. The snow seems to stop right at the Canadian border lol.
D.C. area seems to currently settle in at around 3 to 6 inches between the models, but if it's mixed with rain and with temps going above freezing on Monday, I imagine the actual accumulation on the ground would be on the lower end.
Max and Katie are in snowy spots
Will is gonna be on the edge of a lot or a little
Mitti & Robert might be in the most dangerous spot
Hunter must be new in a safest spot
Water Vapor Loop... Ridge in the West, Trough in the east. Look at that dive Southeast in Middle of Country. Also note the Pacific moisture feeding into the system. Wow
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