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Interesting discussion from NWS Atlanta: the upper-level wave that may power the cyclogenesis is all the way west in Hawaii!
Quote:
... All this being said and the aforementioned wave is currently way off near Hawaii so obviously much can change and the run-to-run consistency will be a big factor in gaining more confidence. Hesitate to talk about snow/ice totals at this point because so much could change given spread of amounts or location with the various models, though just want to say that significant amounts of either or both are possible and should get better ideas in the next few days. Stay tuned and the previous discussion follows...
Interesting discussion from NWS Atlanta: the upper-level wave that may power the cyclogenesis is all the way west in Hawaii!
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I was gonna check that but got caught up. Forecasts gonna be bouncing for sure. Wonder if they'll send some reconnaissance to grab some more data. Models dont have a lot of data from open Pacific.
So GFS is about 150 miles north of the Euro. That's a big difference when talking about areas like Atlanta.
NWS Jacksonville, FL:
"The next significant rain chance will come this weekend as a mid/upper level trough moves across the eastern US and slingshots a strong low pressure system across the Midwest towards our area then up towards New England. Long term model solutions differ and bring the low along different tracks across the area. The ECMWF brings the low along the FL/GA border while the GFS brings the low more north across central GA. Widespread rainfall is expected across the area either way, but thunderstorms may also be possible if the low tracks more north as more of the area will be in the warm sector with higher
instability."
There's also the chance of a freezing rain/ice event setup if that low tracks more south.
NWS Charleston, SC:
"The Euro and GFS both depict a closed low at 500mb, however they have yet to come into agreement on the placement of the surface low. If the surface low tracks south of the forecast area there is the possibility of cold air damming dominating the region, creating some precipitation- type issues on Sunday."
Horrible overnight updates. I have to head to work so wont be able to update today...
Here's latest GFS.. Appalachian runner. It phases too early for an I95 snowstorm. Would probably mean Severe Thunderstorm Warning for NYC. The Ensembles are East of the Operational models. So theres that.
"If the winter storm looks perfect for you 5-6 days out, prepare for massive disappointment". lol
Here's the GFS Ensembles mean. Ensembles are I believe 50+ members that run a solution independently and show a result. Check out where each place the low off the coast.
I been doing this for over 11 yrs now and each time it's always fascinating.
So many moving pieces it's always amazing to watch. Even the missed coastal storm in 2 days has say in a result 5 days from now.
Looks like another flight over the Pacific is scheduled and the data will be in tonights 00z model updates.
Quote:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0115 PM EST TUE 11 JANUARY 2022
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z JANUARY 2022
WSPOD NUMBER.....21-042 AMENDMENT
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 13/0000Z
B. AFXXX 05WSE IOP03
C. 12/1715Z.........(CHANGED)
D. 24 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY
35.0N 145.0W, 35.0N 125.0W, 55.0N 125.0W, AND 55.0N 145.0W. (NUMBER OF DROPS CHANGED)
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 12/2030Z-13/0230Z
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
NWS NY says this... They are staying with an all snow solution for us here maybe mixing for NYC and coast so they aren't buying the West shift because the energy is still way out in the Pacific. They also say that if it is indeed the westward track then forecasts will get warmer
Quote:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
726 AM EST Wed Jan 12 2022
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Amazingly with Pac energy still well off the west coast there is
very good agreement with the overall upper air pattern heading into
the weekend and early next week. At the start of the period, an
upper trough lifts off the east coast with deepening low pressure
heading up into the Canadian Maritimes. Another shot of arctic air
follows behind the low with strong high pressure building in from
eastern Canada. This will be a key player in laying the foundation
for cold air ahead of an approaching storm system late Sunday into
Monday.
Models agree that a strong shortwave will track from the central
Plains Friday night, closing off as it works south and east into the
Lower Mississippi Valley, then heading northeast across the
Tennessee Valley on Sunday. The 00Z guidance continues to show a
westward shift in the surface low track in both the deterministic
and ensemble runs. However, the deterministic models continue to be
farther west than their ensembles. So while the deterministic
guidance points to a snow to rain event with an inland low track, it
would be prudent to be gradual with this westward shift as the
upstream Pac energy is still well offshore.
In addition, there are
other factors to consider, how quickly the mid level confluent
zone departs from eastern Canada and a northern branch kicker
that trails the system. So it`s likely this is not the final
solution. Thus, right now still staying with a mainly snow
forecast with some mixing in of rain along the coast. Should the
westward trend continue, the transition to rain would become
increasingly likely, especially for coastal areas. At this time,
precipitation looks to begin late Sunday afternoon/early
evening, then ending Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will be well below normal Saturday with highs from the
upper teens to the lower 20s. This is close to 20 degrees below
normal. We will then see a moderation on Sunday in the NE/E flow
that develops ahead of the system. This where the greatest
uncertainty resides with temperatures. Should the westward trend in
low track continue, a warmer solution will be required. Temperatures
will be near seasonable levels Monday into Tuesday on the backside
of the storm.
Latest Euro shows increasing possibility of ice storm for Atlanta on Sunday.
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