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"It's pretty hard to find a storm track which brought heavy (>a foot) of snow from northeast Georgia to northern New York state. 1966 & 1987 are pretty good analogs, next 1958 & 1969 but not perfect. (2/3)"
I'm in southwestern New Hampshire (just outside of Keene) and for the past few days, our forecast has said 3-5" of snow on Sunday night plus 5-8" more on Monday daytime. Now it's down to 3-5" plus 3-5". Honestly, I hope by Saturday it's down to 1" plus 1"!
That huge swath of possible ice storms down south is scary. Up here there doesn't appear to be any chance of that. Ice scares the crap out of me.
Cambium, is the snow going to be the light fluffy stuff -- or is it going to vary depending on location?
And I THINK I'm going to vote Massachusetts ... but I will wait 'til tomorrow!
Models have severe problems with the phasing/transfer of the low pressure energy to the developing low pressure to the east of my area. Northern edge of the snow band will be next to impossible to pin down, but hoping to get more snowfall than the pathetic one inch that occurred in the last event for Floyd County, IN.
I'm thinking the heaviest snow is going to ride the axis of the Appalachians thereby missing the biggest cities. Any downtown dwellers hoping for big falls will be dissapointed
I'm thinking the heaviest snow is going to ride the axis of the Appalachians thereby missing the biggest cities. Any downtown dwellers hoping for big falls will be dissapointed
Very disappointing! Hoping for a northward shift of the storm on the 12Z model runs.
Edit: 12Z NAM even further south! The models are performing so horribly with drastic storm track changes 3-4 days out off the West Coast, it is pathetic.
Last edited by GraniteStater; 01-13-2022 at 08:15 AM..
Very disappointing! Hoping for a northward shift of the storm on the 12Z model runs.
Edit: 12Z NAM even further south! The models are performing so horribly with drastic storm track changes 3-4 days out off the West Coast, it is pathetic.
This graphic should help.. You arent supposed to be fixed on 1 storm track that far out. Just look for consistency and trends. Each model will have its own solution and can be similar but dont expect an accuracy of within 100 miles more than 2 days out. Shoot, I've seen a big shift 24hrs out. Theres going to be headaches watching them for sure.
Overall the models did sniff out this storm but when people expect details to come to fruition so far out they'll be disappointed. With that said... Theres so many moving pieces out there. How about that High Pressure in the Northeast? What if it moves south 100 miles and is stronger than expected. Hence the model picking that up and adjusting the storm result.
Fascinating to see this evolve
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