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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
256 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021
.SHORT TERM [This Afternoon through Monday Night]...
Water vapor satellite imagery nicely shows the strong low responsible
for our winter event spinning between the San Angelo-Sweetwater area
early this afternoon and making gradual eastward progress. Local area
surface observations (temperatures in the low to mid 30s) and photos/videos
early this afternoon are showing snow steadily falling across parts
of our northern counties where the Winter Storm Warning remains in
effect and excellent ascent is found. Accumulations are likely beginning
(have some 1 to 3 inch amounts so far in/around the Bryan/College Station
area), and they will continue for the remainder of the afternoon through
evening hours before this event comes to an end. Models continue to
show support for banding across parts of the warned area (different
runs continue to show different amounts across different locations),
and wherever the best/persistent banding sets up will likely receive
our highest amounts. At this time, planning on keeping wording the same
in the warning of 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible.
As this event continues to unfold and amounts increase, we might need
to update our products and raise these numbers. There continues to be
uncertainty as to how far south the frozen precipitation will get and
to whether or not anything will accumulate. Still think somewhere in/
around a Cat Springs to The Woodlands to Segno line could end up being
this line. Whether there is just rain, a mix of rain and snow, or just
snow, motorists should obviously use extreme caution if needing to drive
this afternoon and on into tonight and the overnight hours. Temperatures
will remain on the cool/cold side and will filter southward across the
area for the rest of the afternoon through overnight hours in response
to winds shifting to the northeast and north on the back side of a
strengthening low off the Texas coast. This low will continue to bring
gusty/windy conditions to the coastal area where a Wind Advisory is
in effect. Look for improving weather conditions late tonight through
early tomorrow morning (lows ranging from the upper 20s north to the
upper 30s/around 40 coast) as the system lifts off to the east and
northeast and some drier air begins to filter in. Clouds might end
up being slow to exit the area on Monday (highs in the 40s). Less
cloud cover and lighter winds will allow for Tuesday morning`s lows
to bottom out in the mid to upper 20s inland and in the mid to upper
30s at the coast. Stay safe out there!
It sort of works out. There wasn't really a strong Pacific jet or anything, and the airmass in question wasn't even Arctic or Canadian in origin. Basically just a deep enough upper-level low in the SW US/Rockies, which generated a strong enough surface low in the Gulf to pull down the cooler air.
It's basically like one of those 40F rainy days consistently seen across that area in winter, just with snow. Their forecast lows aren't even going to drop below the 30s (or just barely).
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