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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
244 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021
An upper level system will slide across the TN Valley while the
associated sfc low will pass us to our south overnight. Recent ACARS
sounding from BNA (18Z) showed dry air is still stubborn in the low
to mid layers, and is delaying the widespread rainfall as previously
anticipated by now across our forecast area. Scattered stratiform
rainfall is currently ongoing and anticipated to increase in
coverage as we head into tonight as that dry layer erodes. Will note
that we have received reports of a graupel/rain mix within stronger
radar reflectivites due to the colder air aloft. Anticipating a
rain/snow mix to occur later tonight, starting around 10pm in the
higher elevations and become more widespread by midnight. After
midnight, temps will fall into the mid 30s across much of the
forecast area but make it to freezing in Southern Middle TN and up in
northern Jackson County. This is where wrap around precip from the
departing low will change over to snow and provide light
accumulations, less than half of an inch. No accumulations are
anticipated elsewhere at this time. With sfc temps above freezing for
most of us tonight and the fact that highs today rea
How far south will the snow fly Sun-Mon?
Will it come up the east coast??
NWS NY says the Euro does not phase the Northern Jet and sub tropical jet
Quote:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
954 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021
The greatest uncertainty exists with low pressure associated
with PAC shortwave energy moving onto the west coast Friday, and
then being ushered along by the southern branch this weekend.
The interaction early next week between this feature and
northern branch energy will likely result in some changes to the
forecast the next 24-48h as models try to gain a better handle
on the evolution of this system. 12Z guidance, including the
operational ECMWF, supports an unphased system passing well to
the south on Tuesday. The EPS though still has plenty of members
farther north, so we are not out of the woods yet. Therefore,
will maintain a slight chance (POP20) due to the aforementioned
uncertainty
Maybe a decent Deep South snow event next Sunday/Monday! Latest NAM & Euro below; last few GFS runs haven't been too impressive. NWS forecast shows me with a 70% rain/snow mix Sunday night.
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