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Wouldn’t be surprised if the areas of the coldest temperatures suffer from the worst of the drought conditions this spring and summer and possibly beyond that timeframe.
Intsresting... old graphic but it shows precip patterns during El Nino years in the spring
No I do not avoid other Mets. I already stated, I am WARM BIASED when it comes to spring. All models show cold coming. I dont like it but I have to embrace it. How can I cherry pick what Mets say when not a SINGLE model right now is showing warmth overrunning the country for the next 2 or 3 weeks. You go find me a met right now which shows warmth.
what they are saying is don't trust models that far out. But still the latest eps and gefs show no positive pna. Also show pos AO and pos NAO.
here is our euro and gefs. looks a little below normal far out day 11-15, but not out of ordinary for early March.
And dry. We never had any El Nino in FL this winter and i told you guys this way back last summer. A nasty 87f at my house today so not even cooler gulf water temps will help anymore and no rain coming for months.
Anyone talking about the mess expected to hit the mid-Atlantic Tues. 2/19/19 - Wed. 2/20/19?
Just hearing crickets, unless you guys think it'll be no big deal.
LOL, I'm here for the same reason. I think the snowless winter in the haunts of some of the main drivers of those winter weather modeling and forecast threads have been shut out of a lot of these storms and therefore aren't spending as much time talking about them.
From what I gather on the main weather sites, it looks like a possible 5-8 inches of snow west of I-95 in Maryland, Our Maryland, then changing over the ice again. More winter precip in the higher elevations to the west. Set up seems similar to other storms.....cold air near ground level, warmer air over top of it. How and when it mixes determines whether we get snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, or all 4.
what they are saying is don't trust models that far out. But still the latest eps and gefs show no positive pna. Also show pos AO and pos NAO.
We've had a positive AO and yet a huge chunk of Canada and the US have been well below normal. I already showed you what the CPC has for the PNA. Its trending positive. Both GFS and Euro showing a giant ridge forming over Alaska.
Look at the Southern Oscillation Index tanking. That usually means El Nino wet and cool signal for eastern US during the warm months, warm during the winter... not sure about how it impacts early spring March though. Maybe it promotes ridging in the central and eastern US
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here is our euro and gefs. looks a little below normal far out day 11-15, but not out of ordinary for early March.
I'm guessing that the east coast will continue to see swings in temps the next two or 3 weeks but with smaller anomalies. The rest of the country will see below or much below normal temps. CFSv2 showing sudden spring as we approach St. Patrick's day
Still this winter didn't feel like above normal snow fall. Since 12" came in November, almost NOTHING in December and early January. Then it snowed, melted after the Polar Vortex, and since then we had multiple clipper type systems dropping 1-4 inches across the area.
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