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One of the best posts I've seen in a while from the Accuweather forum..(there's like 400 people in the storm thread right now. lol)
They got some good stuff going on. This is really interesting! Look close at those High Level clouds moving "East" over the Atlantic... The storm coming up the coast wont fight that so will stay west of there. Last minute details models don't see from days away that's why some areas went from getting 0 to 4" now..
Quote:
Heres one of the best ways to get a storm track that I have always used. It deals with High pressure outflow, yes high pressure has outflow just like low pressure although it is at lower levels (sinking air) as opposed to the outflow or blow off you see in a strong storm or tropical system (upper levels). Its not always easy to see or find cause its mostly clear air outflow but you can see it out over the ocean and in the Summer around the "ring of fire", low level clouds moving away from the center of high pressure.
So in this image you see the outflow from the Atlantic ridge depicted as low level clouds (the blue arrows) showing the ragged edges of the outflow from the high. These are just outside the main periphery of the high. The clouds at the top moving to the NW, in the middle generally west and bottom moving south west. The low riding up the coast cannot move into this outflow it is repelled for lack of a better word like a magnet, it cant fight the high. So it rides along just outside this zone. Now yes it can move west due to other factors inland such as pull of an upper level low, negative tilt trough, etc. But left to its devices it will always run that line right outside the high pressure outflow and cannot move further East then that line.
This shot from this morning shows the line just inside the benchmark (marked in red) pretty much the ride zone. When we talk snow in the NE thats the track you want for coastal lows. So at this point thats my track. I do however see some possible further west movement of that track due to the trough amplification more aligned S to N but for the most part if I had to bet well thats it.
Also.... good reminder anywhere that still has snow left on ground tonight with clear skies, temps will tank maybe lower than forecasts
I plan on this fall winter being like last years. If i am in the lower 40's then places 70 miles north of me will be close to 32. It really gets much colder around 70 miles to my north.
I plan on this fall winter being like last years. If i am in the lower 40's then places 70 miles north of me will be close to 32. It really gets much colder around 70 miles to my north.
Look on the bright side, at least your location can expect significant rainfall and much cooler temperatures within the next 48 hours, I suspect that the active subtropical jet will be a much bigger player in the weather this winter than last winter in St.Pete
Look on the bright side, at least your location can expect significant rainfall and much cooler temperatures within the next 48 hours, I suspect that the active subtropical jet will be a much bigger player in the weather this winter than last winter in St.Pete
I'm not counting on super heavy rainfall. 9 out of 10 times the upper level support dies off and the heavy rain dies off once it is 20 miles offshore when it hits the colder water. If i get .50" i will be happy. Gotta remember the gulf is much warmer 150 miles offshore in the loop current this time of year and once it moves east of the much warmer water it starts to die off. If the upper level support is there then we will get some better rain.
Any rain this winter will be better than last fall- winter as i onlyhad about 2.5" Total from Oct of 2016 till May of this year
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
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Today's high temp was 18.9°C, 1.7°C below average; and this mornings low was 5.6°C, 2.7°C below average.
Currently 18.3°C with a dewpoint of -9.4°C at 5pm Mountain Time
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, I suspect that the active subtropical jet will be a much bigger player in the weather this winter than last winter in St.Pete
