Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Analogs for El Nino onset during summer look cool (at least for here). 2002, 2004, 2009, and maybe 2015
Can't for the life of me understand why all the models are calling for a warmer than normal summer here
In Pittsburgh, the summer of 2002 was consistently hot, and the summer of 2015 was back-loaded but average overall. On the other hand, the summer of 2004 never happened, and I hope that Pittsburghers savored the summer of 2009 for the two weeks it existed.
In Pittsburgh, the summer of 2002 was consistently hot, and the summer of 2015 was back-loaded but average overall. On the other hand, the summer of 2004 never happened, and I hope that Pittsburghers savored the summer of 2009 for the two weeks it existed.
Yeah these analogs don't look good to me for this summer.
NWs just updated their weekly forecast for Chicagoland
Monthly temperature anomalies in Athens, GA (January 2015-March 2017)
-1.6 - January 2015
-6.9 - February 2015
+2.5 - March 2015
+3.4 - April 2015
+2.4 - May 2015
+2.9 - June 2015
+1.4 - July 2015
+0.2 - August 2015
+0.1 - September 2015
-0.8 - October 2015
+2.9 - November 2015
+11.0 - December 2015
-1.5 - January 2016
+0.4 - February 2016
+5.6 - March 2016
+1.7 - April 2016
+0.3 - May 2016
+3.2 - June 2016
+3.4 - July 2016
+2.4 - August 2016
+4.4 - September 2016
+4.8 - October 2016
+3.0 - November 2016
+1.7 - December 2016
+8.0 - January 2017
+7.9 - February 2017
+2.5 - March 2017
It appears that the South has been stuck under a Ridiculously Resilient Ridge for almost a year now.
Monthly temperature anomalies in Athens, GA (January 2015-March 2017)
-1.6 - January 2015
-6.9 - February 2015
+2.5 - March 2015
+3.4 - April 2015
+2.4 - May 2015
+2.9 - June 2015
+1.4 - July 2015
+0.2 - August 2015
+0.1 - September 2015
-0.8 - October 2015
+2.9 - November 2015
+11.0 - December 2015
-1.5 - January 2016
+0.4 - February 2016
+5.6 - March 2016
+1.7 - April 2016
+0.3 - May 2016
+3.2 - June 2016
+3.4 - July 2016
+2.4 - August 2016
+4.4 - September 2016
+4.8 - October 2016
+3.0 - November 2016
+1.7 - December 2016
+8.0 - January 2017
+7.9 - February 2017
+2.5 - March 2017
It appears that the South has been stuck under a Ridiculously Resilient Ridge for almost a year now.
Very cool stats and setup! Nice work. I bet you liked March 11-17 period. Looks like that must of felt so weird. Max staying in 40s and 50s, lows in 20s and 30s. Peach crops destroyed from cold.
Also, look at December 2016 for there. Only 1 week that month really contributed to ending up above normal otherwise was a pretty normal/slightly below normal month actually for most part.
But scrolling back through the monthly graphs with that link, Holy CRAP, sorry dude, that was horrible to even look back on. Yikes.
Monthly temperature anomalies in Bridgeport, CT (January 2015-March 2017)
-2.3 - January 2015
-12.5 - February 2015
-5.5 - March 2015
+0.4 - April 2015
+4.0 - May 2015
-0.3 - June 2015
+1.8 - July 2015
+2.8 - August 2015
+4.9 - September 2015
+0.9 - October 2015
+4.2 - November 2015
+11.8 - December 2015
+3.1 - January 2016
+2.4 - February 2016
+5.4 - March 2016
+0.1 - April 2016
+1.2 - May 2016
+1.7 - June 2016
+3.2 - July 2016
+5.1 - August 2016
+4.4 - September 2016
+3.4 - October 2016
+3.0 - November 2016
+2.4 - December 2016
+6.8 - January 2017
+6.0 - February 2017
-1.9 - March 2017
Yeah these analogs don't look good to me for this summer.
NWs just updated their weekly forecast for Chicagoland
It appears that the South is the only region of the U.S. with widespread below-normal precipitation in the last three to six months, so unless there's a major pattern change in the next month or two, I'm predicting that the South, from Arkansas and Louisiana east to the Atlantic Ocean, is where the core of the heat is going to be this summer. In that case, I'm also predicting that the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest will have a relatively tepid summer, because hot summers there tend to result from droughts originating in Texas and the Great Plains more than anything else, it seems. Any consistent heat in the Midwest this summer will likely be confined to areas near the Ohio Valley.
I'd give the Northeast a higher likelihood of a hot summer than the Midwest, especially with above-normal water temperatures in the western Atlantic, but I suppose the weather patterns in the Canadian maritimes can be a wild card. The big question is, will this summer be like 1986, 1993 or 2007? In 1986, the extreme heat was generally confined to the South and coastal Mid-Atlantic, while everywhere else was tepid. In 1993, the extreme heat affected the South, Northeast and Ohio Valley, but the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest were still tepid. Those are the two extreme scenarios, but 2007 was sort of a middle ground between the two, with the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, New York (state) and New England all being near normal, and the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic being hotter than normal while the South had the most extreme heat.
Of course, I could be totally wrong here. I'm just going by what I remember about weather patterns in the past.
I'd give the Northeast a higher likelihood of a hot summer than the Midwest, especially with above-normal water temperatures in the western Atlantic,
Below normal water temps off the coast. It was a very cold March. The waters didnt warm up as normally do. Low 40s off the coast here. Should be mid 40s at least by now.
Very cool stats and setup! Nice work. I bet you liked March 11-17 period. Looks like that must of felt so weird. Max staying in 40s and 50s, lows in 20s and 30s. Peach crops destroyed from cold.
Also, look at December 2016 for there. Only 1 week that month really contributed to ending up above normal otherwise was a pretty normal/slightly below normal month actually for most part.
But scrolling back through the monthly graphs with that link, Holy CRAP, sorry dude, that was horrible to even look back on. Yikes.
The middle of March was certainly a nice reprieve from the prevailing pattern for most of the winter. As for December, the first three weeks were perfect, but then it warmed up just in time for Christmas, so that makes two Christmases in a row ****ed up by warm temperatures. And aside from a brief cold spell in early January, the rest of the winter was bull****. We had one -- count it, ONE -- day in February with a high temperature below normal, and only one other day with a high temperature near normal. The winter of 2016-2017 was, by far, the warmest of my lifetime.
For that matter, we had a hot, dry fall in 2016, and I don't even hesitate to use the word "hot" either. You know how much rain Athens had in September, October and November combined? 3.49". Yes, that does include the 0.03" that fell in October, as if it even matters. Exactly half an inch of rain -- yes, 0.50"; I did the math twice -- fell from September 19-November 28. Some areas of Georgia and Alabama went 60 or more consecutive days with no rain. As for the temperatures, Athens had 54 days with highs of 80°F or higher (28 in September, 21 in October, five in November), 41 days with highs of 85°F or higher (27 in September, 13 in October, one in November), and 23 days with highs of 90°F or higher (20 in September, three in October). By November, any northerly or northwesterly wind brought with it smoke from all the wildfires in the southern Appalachians. What happened to Gatlinburg in late November was just the end result of the weather pattern we had in the South all fall.
It should also be noted that the central A/C in my house failed in late July, just in time for the hottest week of the year, and couldn't be fixed until the middle of August. Having to fix that also prevented me from fixing the A/C compressor in my truck, which failed about a week before the central A/C failed. Now you know part of why I'm weary of all the warmth.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
Below normal water temps off the coast. It was a very cold March. The waters didnt warm up as normally do. Low 40s off the coast here. Should be mid 40s at least by now.
That's weird; all the other ocean temperature maps I'd seen had warm anomalies near the coast. This must be a recent development?
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
