Spring 2016 thread (Northern Hemisphere) (frost, farmers, Maine, sweater)

[ral31]

Here's the latest discussion from my NWS region. Possibly some substantial flooding this week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
333 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
VERY NICE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS ALL EYES TURN TOWARDS
THE WEST COAST AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND THE VERY WET AND
STORMY PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK.

OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MOST OF GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THIS WEEK ON HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES.

MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING IN EARNEST LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING
TROUGH. A CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND MOVE AT A TURTLE SPEED IF ANY AT ALL THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.

THIS PUTS THE REGION INTO A VERY FAVORABLE ZONE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILE AND
STRONG LOW- LEVEL JET AND SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT FROM
THE MAIN LOW. THE HIGHEST CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL WHICH LOOKS OMINOUS DESPITE THE DRY PERIOD WE HAVE
RECENTLY HAD. RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT RANGE
FROM 6-12 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS LOOKING TO BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY DEPENDING ON
WHICH GUIDANCE SET YOU LOOK AT. RIVER GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IN THE CALCASIEU/SABINE
AND NECHES BASINS SHOULD THIS RAINFALL COME TO PASS AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF
NO DRASTIC CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
OUTSIDE OF SEVERE STORMS...WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30-40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AT LEAST
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY GALE.

[chicagogeorge]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/706566757876682752

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Warszawa

76 in Bismarck, 36 in Binghamton, ugh I always hate when this happens

Cool to see. Caribou is the same Latitude. They never even been above 55 in early March.

Give it couple of days. It's slowly shifting east now.

I enjoyed today more than I did all winter. LOL. I guess cause I anticipate I may not see 30s and low 40s for max again?

Originally Posted by RAlex

Here's the latest discussion from my NWS region. Possibly some substantial flooding this week.


THE HIGHEST CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL WHICH LOOKS OMINOUS DESPITE THE DRY PERIOD WE HAVE
RECENTLY HAD. RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT RANGE
FROM 6-12 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS LOOKING TO BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY DEPENDING ON
WHICH GUIDANCE SET YOU LOOK AT.

.

Yikes. Better now than later I guess. Get some rain barrels and start saving some rain. lets hope it doesn't happen in couple months & flood the garden again


================


Atlantic City maybe upper 70s because the atmosphere will be very dry vertically.
Record Warm max but not mins because of the dry air
And Hey, they stole my line. LOL!!




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
420 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES RELOCATES OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BY LATE MONDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THIS WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, THEN 17 TO 23 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
STILL ABOUT 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THIS INCLUDES THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RECORD TEMPERATURES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN THURSDAY, MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ALMOST 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MAY BE A BIT MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND ALSO
NEAR RECORD, THIS BARRING A SOONER OR STRONGER LATE THURSDAY CFP.

WEDNESDAY...SUNNY AND VERY WARM-NEAR RECORD AT 7 OF OUR 8 CLIMATE
SITES WITH ONLY KACY SUBJECT TO A WIND TURNING SOUTH OF WEST IN
RESPONSE TO THE BAY BREEZE MARINE INFLUENCE OFF THE COOLER DE BAY
SST (NEAR 40F). YET KACY TOO COULD RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S PRIOR TO COOLING DOWN! A HUGE 500 MB RIDGE AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS VERTICALLY IS REASON FOR THE OPTIMISM, AS WELL AS MULTI
MODEL MASS FIELD AGREEMENT. WLY ISOBARS... HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...TIMING TIMING TIMING ON RECORD WARMTH. FOR NOW, WE`RE
GOING WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH! INCREASED CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT, THAT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS LATE THU AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON SCENARIO BUT NOT NECESSARILY ON RECORD MAX TEMP
OCCURRENCE. ON RECORD WARM MINS WHICH I NORMALLY DONT SPEND ALOT
OF TIME ON... HAVE LISTED THE VULNERABLE RECORD MINS BUT WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR NIGHTLY DECOUPLING, NEW
RECORDS MAY NOT BE ESTABLISHED.

[nei]

With the incoming warm air, conditions on the summit of Mt. Washington sound unpleasant. Where's the low it's talking about? Don't notice a low pressure system in Quebec;

A high cresting over the Carolinas tonight into Monday will set up a strengthening return flow resulting in a warming trend. Clouds will thicken and summit fog will resettle Monday afternoon as a low passing to the north brushes the region with snow showers. Winds will strengthen Monday with gusts up to the century mark possible due to a tightening pressure gradient between the high to the south and the low to the north.

850 mb height and wind tomorrow from pivotalweather

[Warszawa]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Cool to see. Caribou is the same Latitude. They never even been above 55 in early March.

Give it couple of days. It's slowly shifting east now.

I enjoyed today more than I did all winter. LOL. I guess cause I anticipate I may not see 30s and low 40s for max again?

Sounds good ^^ upstate at least it's common to get cold blasts very late, average last date for a sub-40 high is in mid May and sub-50 high is early May, so there will still be chances for cold days!

[Cambium]

Snow to Mexico

https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/706765521694433280

[Cambium]

Looks like they weren't ready to change the scale yet on the max temp forecast map..
On the right is the Normal Max for "MAY" 9th


Philly forecast of 74° is higher than the normal for May 9th..
But The immediate coasts look to be cooler than May normal. More like April instead.





http://www.weather.gov/images/erh/gis/PHI_maxt_Day3.png


Normal High Temperatures - AerisWeather

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by RAlex

Looks like the heavy rainfall has shifted south into Louisiana in the 7 day forecast. Hopefully there's no severe flooding.

I'm glad I don't have much in my garden right now.

Bright colors. Looks like you may get spared the brunt of it. But man that's close and doesn't accurately pin point the "local" downpours and bigger totals.


http://www.weather.gov/images/erh/gis/LCH_QPF.png


http://www.weather.gov/images/erh/gis/SHV_QPF.png

[chicagogeorge]

Dynamic weather ahead


Wet Wednesday. After a few inches on top the soil still frozen so I bet there will be a lot of run off street flooding if the GFS is correct...






March will torch according to NOAA with a bullseye over me

[Warszawa]

Should get that big warmup in a few hours, maybe I can go to class in just a sweater today. Im already wondering about what outfits to pick for the week lol