Spring 2016 thread (Northern Hemisphere) (snowing, flood, Kentucky, warmest)
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SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO...AND PERHAPS A
WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO...MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION CROSSING THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY.
DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN
EWD-PROGRESSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AT PRESENT. A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WITH A LEADING LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
LINE...IS TRACKING ENEWD FROM WRN OHIO TO THE TN VALLEY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ENEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY WILL ONLY UNDERGO
MODEST DESTABILIZATION...AS POLEWARD FLUXES OF LIMITED MOISTURE
OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE BROADER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE LOW ACROSS THE
AREA FOR MUCH SFC-BASED SVR-TSTM RISK -- GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE TO THE S WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO
THE AREA TO FOSTER SOME INCREASE -- ALBEIT LIMITED -- IN BUOYANCY.
OTHERWISE...POOR LAPSE RATES WILL GREATLY MITIGATE DIURNAL GAINS IN
BUOYANCY...IN ADDITION TO MITIGATION OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING RELATED
TO AN EXPANDING MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY.
REGARDLESS...VWP DATA AT WILMINGTON OHIO AND JACKSON KENTUCKY SAMPLE
APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR THAT MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. A FEW QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS...OR PERHAPS A
MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURE OR TWO...MAY POSE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED DMGG-WIND GUST OR TWO...AND PERHAPS A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO.
THE DEARTH OF BUOYANCY...AND PAUCITY OF MOISTURE...WILL PRECLUDE A
GREATER SVR RISK FROM EVOLVING.
Complete garbage, looks like March 2012 all over again. Also, the El Nino blowtorch zonal flow seems to be stronger now as California appears to be getting a lot of rainfall over the next two weeks.
Some dry heat moving into south florida. This I can handle, I wish sunmer was like this
How is that dry heat?
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