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Twiddling my thumbs waiting to see this ... Unfortunately look down at the time stamp and realize it's just not happening yet that you have to go past 11 days to see anything like this.
Also waiting to see things like this ... Nope... only in "Fantasy Land" which rarely happens.
Even when winter is above average, it is still cold around here with our averages. Even worse for Canada. Showing Toronto well above average just means temps that would be average around here, which is cold.
Well if Binghamton flips and is 13 degrees ABOVE average this February as opposed to below, it will have an average high of 45F. Obviously it's not Miami, but such a month would give your winter coat a lil bit of a break
It seems like warm Decembers are nothing to worry about. The problem only problem is if it stays warm into January and February.
If this holds true 1972-3 is the best analog. During that winter there were plenty of strong cold snaps in the New York area, and lots of storms; just never at the same time. Both of the storms that buried coastal North Carolina in snow, January 7-9 and February 9, 1973 (especially the January storm) were "near misses" for New York City; they were projected to hit NYC and then were suppressed southward. The January storm was even first forecast to mix with rain, then the forecasts progressively moved the storm further south, into an "all-snow" posture, then flurries, and then sunny, dry and very cold.
My Dad's funeral was January 7, 1973; I remember it as being severely cold, never getting out of the teens, but sunny and bone-dry.
Thus the winter could easily wind up snowy or snowless since the storms in a super El Niño are plentiful and their paths quite fickle.
Steve D trying to calm the nerves of Snow weenies in the East. The Plains states getting more snow than New England so far.
Discussion today:
" This morning due to several requests, we are going to go over where we have been, where we are, and where we are going for the next three months which will include a focus on December.
We are coming from an atmospheric environment where the stratosphere was very cold and El Nino had a strong east based component with significant impacts on the weather pattern over North America. This lead to a Summer lacking in activity over the Tropical Atlantic while the Tropical Pacific is firing on all cylinders to make one of the most active tropical seasons in the Tropical Pacific.
We are now in an atmospheric environment where a very cold stratosphere is just starting to be warmed by some stratospheric warming. The Polar Vortex is very strong, which is trapping all the cold air in Canada. As such, the Sub Tropical jet stream is running the show over North America which has lead to a very warm month in November. This of course is why I went with above normal temperatures for this month. The majority of the rain has been focused over the Plains and southern Mississippi River valley with below normal departs over the Mid Atlantic, which was a bit of a surprise.
So we all know where we have been. Is the winter forecast still on track? That is a strong YES. My winter forecast as you know in terms of temperatures was always above normal in December, near normal in January, below normal in February and March. That forecast has not changed and the reasons for that forecast are evolving as well. Let me point out where we are going.
In terms of the Stratosphere, the Polar Vortex is very strong. This is due to very cold air, almost record cold for the Fall season. The stratosphere is rapidly starting to warm as influences at the Tropics, like typhoon In-fa and decreasing activity of the sun start to do their job. The influences of the above normal snow pack in Siberia are also starting to show up with some weakening of the lower stratospheric winds at 70 MB. This process doesn’t happen in a day or a week, but over several months. The process started in October and the fruits will be seen by January perhaps even by late December if some long range guidance is correct. The weakening of the Polar Vortex will allow Polar and Arctic air to crash south towards the strongest area of rising air, which would be the very warm western Atlantic. That’s part one and there are no indications this is going wrong.
The one point that everyone wants to point to and run screaming is El Nino. There is no point singling out individuals running around saying this El Nino is going to continue to strength or any stuff like that. It’s like arguing with a wall. Here are the facts. The SOI signal has weakened into a weak El Nino phase, the SSTA will follow. I will warn again though, don’t bother going with daily values as there are spikes going on all over the region as changes in the winds due to the decreasing pressure component start to take shape. Like I said last week in a video. The car is running on it’s last tank with a lot of starts and stutters on the way.
From here on out, I expect a steady weakening in El Nino overall through the next 3 months. December will continue to exhibit strong El Nino properties thus again why I went with a warm December. By January, February, and March though, we will have the atmospheric state of a weakening El Nino with convection around the date line. This will foster a 500 MB jet in the Polar and Sub Tropical jet streams that supports Polar and Arctic air masses over the eastern two thirds of the United States and a very active Sub Tropical jet stream to interact with.
What people need to remember here is the process. You don’t go from point A to point Z without going through B to Y. We are going through those steps now and you can see that if you take a step back away from the trees and look at the whole forest."
In terms of the Stratosphere, the Polar Vortex is very strong. This is due to very cold air, almost record cold for the Fall season.
Does that mean the stratosphere? Or the troposphere? It sound like stratosphere is very cold.
Theory says very cold arctic with very warm tropics results in strong polar vortex. I'm not following why he says the vortex will break down?
Quote:
The stratosphere is rapidly starting to warm as influences at the Tropics, like typhoon In-fa and decreasing activity of the sun start to do their job.
Again, that doesn't make any sense. Decreasing sunlight makes it colder, not warmer. The stratosphere is going to keep cooling, not somehow warm up.
It will be interesting to see if I can avoid hitting 80 F this December. The last 2 Decembers had at least one 80 F day in there somewhere. Tomorrow (December 1st) has a forecast high of 78 F and we aren't supposed to cool down until Thursday.
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