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I thought it made no sense. A reduction in UV is supposed to cool the stratosphere, not warm it.
Quote:
"Relatively simple models have demonstrated that heating the equatorial stratosphere can push the jet streams apart just a little bit," says Lockwood. Similarly, cooling the stratosphere — as occurs during periods of low solar activity — allows the jet streams to shift towards the Equator.
What doesn't make sense is the claim in the article that it is only a regional European phenomenon. The polar vortex breakdown from strato warming deeply affects North America. 2009-10 was bitterly cold in the eastern US. The jet stream dropping into lower latitudes affects North America even more I would bet.
What doesn't make sense is the claim in the article that it is only a regional European phenomenon.
There's a lot more as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
The 70 MB level is in fact the coldest that has ever been seen. The reason?
The sun is becoming rather active and that increased activity leads to a destruction of ozone which leads to a rapid cooling of the stratosphere and ionosphere.
I'm sure that is wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
Yes, the stratosphere has cooled off again, but that shouldn’t be a surprise given the recent uptick in solar activity. The solar burst of late has lead to a break down in ozone around the poles and thus a cooler stratosphere.
That can't be right. Increased UV both increases ozone, and warms the atmosphere.
It's why I am considering starting a topic, so as to not sidetrack this topic.
Last edited by SFX; 11-26-2015 at 10:08 PM..
Reason: added links to an old topic
That can't be right. Increased UV both increases ozone, and warms the atmosphere.
Again.. your going against someone who is in the field and has a degree in Physics. I can't help and I would be careful spreading any info around saying "its wrong" or "not possible" if you aren't sure or in the field yourself.
Best bet is to find a study and email them these questions. I wish I can elaborate further but I'm not the one to ask, I can only just post what we are told unfortunately. Could there have been a typo somewhere, sure. Consistent typos? Not likely. Taught the wrong thing? Anything possible.
One thing that might make sense is the fact that IF the ozone is getting destroyed then the surface then the stratosphere will cool. If the ozone is in tact and firm, the stratosphere warms like a blanket. So makes sense that an active sun leads to destruction of the ozone which leads to a cooling of the stratosphere which in turn does not weaken the Vortex. So basically reverse that. Minimum sun = solid ozone = warm stratosphere = split Vortex = cool surface.
No matter what we say and post we can never make it simple because we haven't even touched on LOCATION of where these things happen.
Here's the 70hpa temps. See where it's warmer? The pole.
Another study .. This one says increase in sun warms the stratosphere, not cools. But it's over the tropics, Not Polar! BIG DIFFERENCE than at the Poles. Gotta be careful what you read.
" The study was funded by the National Science Foundation, NCAR's sponsor, and by the Department of Energy
The team first confirmed a theory that the slight increase in solar energy during the peak production of sunspots is absorbed by stratospheric ozone. The energy warms the air in the stratosphereover the tropics, where sunlight is most intense, while also stimulating the production of additional ozone there that absorbs even more solar energy. Since the stratosphere warms unevenly, with the most pronounced warming occurring at lower latitudes, stratospheric winds are altered and, through a chain of interconnected processes, end up strengthening tropical precipitation."
All I know is .. when the sun is quiet ... the surface gets cold.
Status quo for Northeast except I would say Cold 1 day, Seasonable 3 days, Warm 3 days. Either way, the below normal days ARE NOT more than the others. Troughs aren't holding in place. Polar Jet seems very weak still. Could go on till mid December at least. All the snow chances being shown in long run are disappearing as we near the time frame.
From the GFS12z...
Today: Cold Front moves in tonight not much rain.
December 1st: Storm cuts to Great Lakes from SouthWest U.S and a front moves in on December 2nd with rain.
December 4th: Trough digs to Mid Atlantic with some below normal temps and then by the 4th, Addios.
December 5th: Storm comes from Gulf exits Mid Atlantic and off the Mid Atl coast on the 5th. Still warm in East while a trough digs out West yet again
Enjoy the Next 2 weeks weeks. Dont see anything but a struggling Polar Jet and warmth in the East. December could very well end up above normal as well.
Since October. Steve has been right.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
10/30/15 Steve D discussion.
This process isn’t fast which is why I have November and much of December rather warm. However, now that the process is started, we just have to observe the “end game” so to speak.
November 10th
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
After mid December we could see changes.
We'll see
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