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In 10 days.. Winter thread. lots of posts in this thread already. Cant wait to look back and see what forecast since Summer was right, wrong and why.
Somewhat Related..New GFS12z. Nope.. no snow next 2 weeks and the next few days are the coldest till Dec 4th. Of course as we enter December surface will naturally get colder but No snow and No Polar vortex yet.
The biggest thing to look for with a strong El Nino is an active and energetic subtropical jet stream, which brings stormy weather across the southern tier of the U.S. It also tends to flood the country with bouts of mild and moisture-laden air, and when in control can limit the number of arctic outbreaks trying to push down from the north.
When we talk about El Nino, it’s not just about its existence. Strength matters, and when we look back at the 2 strongest El Ninos on record (1982-83 and 1997-98) we see very similar outcomes. Warmer than average temperatures take over the northern states, while temps run cooler than average across the southern states due to the active storm track. We’re thinking that our winter will end up slightly above average here in southern New England.
Another feature of an El Nino winter is that the cold often takes its time working down out of the Arctic. While there are always bouts of cold air that can pour down from time to time in November and December, we’re expecting both months to run well above average in respect to temperature
1) It Won’t Be Like Last Winter
2) El Nino Will Be A Big Factor
3) Another Back-loaded Winter
4) ‘Milder Than Average’ Doesn’t Mean You’ll Be Wearing Shorts
5) The Return Of The Rain/Snow Line
Just a thought... while we enter the cold months naturally temps will drop as well even for Florida. However even if the Polar Jet can dive down more in the East, it doesnt necessarily mean Florida will get cooler because things are getting supressed... WHAT IF the SE ridge doesnt budge yet the Polar Jet stream dives further south to the Mid Atlantic?
This in my eyes sets up a squeeze play for Mid Atlantic ice and snowstorms and even for parts of South east too.
Just a thought. Florida can stay above normal while snow/ice events happen for Interior south and Mid Atlantic
We are starting to see the Northern jet with some muscle
Just a thought... while we enter the cold months naturally temps will drop as well even for Florida. However even if the Polar Jet can dive down more in the East, it doesnt necessarily mean Florida will get cooler because things are getting supressed... WHAT IF the SE ridge doesnt budge yet the Polar Jet stream dives further south to the Mid Atlantic?
This in my eyes sets up a squeeze play for Mid Atlantic ice and snowstorms and even for parts of South east too.
Just a thought. Florida can stay above normal while snow/ice events happen for Interior south and Mid Atlantic
We are starting to see the Northern jet with some muscle
That pattern is very typical of La Niña. In fact the SE Ridge often makes even the northeast mild when it flexes its muscle. The polar jet's incursion can set up the battle where the SE Ridge is suppressed but not gone.
Just a thought... while we enter the cold months naturally temps will drop as well even for Florida. However even if the Polar Jet can dive down more in the East, it doesnt necessarily mean Florida will get cooler because things are getting supressed... WHAT IF the SE ridge doesnt budge yet the Polar Jet stream dives further south to the Mid Atlantic?
This in my eyes sets up a squeeze play for Mid Atlantic ice and snowstorms and even for parts of South east too.
Just a thought. Florida can stay above normal while snow/ice events happen for Interior south and Mid Atlantic
We are starting to see the Northern jet with some muscle
Feels like its snowing everywhere except here today. LOL Last year I was part of the fun, this year I feel left out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shalop
We got some snow here today but it's not sticking...
Quote:
Originally Posted by unobtainium
It's definitely sticking in Ann Arbor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariete
Something resembling white frozen liquid particles are falling from the sky, the first ones since mid-March. Can I call it snow, probably not, but certainly something in that fashion. Temp now 34F so maybe it will turn snowier later on.
edit: Ok, now it's genuine sleet/snow, I can see some white sticking onto the grass. So as today, 21 November, we got our first snowfall.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hiromant
It's been intermittently snowing all day and now the ground is white. Great!
Quote:
Originally Posted by animalcrazy
Okay I take it back now. It looks like a blizzard out there and the snow is finally covering the ground. I'm heading out in my snow gear It's fantastic
Just a thought... while we enter the cold months naturally temps will drop as well even for Florida. However even if the Polar Jet can dive down more in the East, it doesnt necessarily mean Florida will get cooler because things are getting supressed... WHAT IF the SE ridge doesnt budge yet the Polar Jet stream dives further south to the Mid Atlantic?
This in my eyes sets up a squeeze play for Mid Atlantic ice and snowstorms and even for parts of South east too.
Just a thought. Florida can stay above normal while snow/ice events happen for Interior south and Mid Atlantic
We are starting to see the Northern jet with some muscle
Florida tends to be below normal in El Nino events.
Florida tends to be below normal in El Nino events.
Is that backed up with past data? I'm looking at this right now, and it's not clear there is a correlation or not.
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lots of posts in this thread already. Cant wait to look back and see what forecast since Summer was right, wrong and why.
It's fantastic
