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Nope. Not falling for it.. GFS and Euro tried to produce a NorEaster with enough cold for "someone" to get a snowstorm in the Northeast and Wind driven rains for others. Nope. Euro stopped showing it for 24hrs now.
First it was Dec 3rd. Now it's Dec 4 or 5 which means it's not in Euros range anyway....which maybe is why Euro decided not to produce it? Maybe they are sniffing it out but the timing was wrong and it's slower which would make the GFS right for around the 4th/5th? Nope. Not gonna bite. Nope.
Otherwise a boring pattern with ups and downs continuing. Cold 2 days. Seasonable 3 days. Warm 2 days
EuroEPS for Dec 2nd and nothing else after. It goes to Dc 9th with AccuPro. Trys to get something going for the 5th but doesn't. The 2nd storm is a doozy but screw that. Not a believer.
Typically with a quiet sun the stratosphere warms up. When the Stratosphere warms up you get a Polar Vortex to weaken and start moving around. It hasn't yet. Even with a quiet sun, The Stratosphere is near record cold levels. This means the Vortex has strengthened at the Pole but has not weakened and broken off. And the AO and NAO has been positive as a reflection..
I Wonder if the years it took time to actually strengthen at the Pole and then finally split and move down to N. America or Europe if those winters were brutally cold. Or does it need to be weak and move around early enough in the season (like November) to really get a long cold winter... Last year the Stratosphere didn't start warming until January and that's when the Vortex started dropping into Canada.
Looking ahead the Polar Jet is just having a hard time staying in the U.S, a sign that its weak.
" Here is a quick solar update on Tuesday morning. Solar activity declined to very low levels. Regions 2454 and 2457 gradually decayed during the past day and are now both a much smaller threat for moderate solar flares. Elsewhere, region 2456 is now a spotless plage as it approaches the west limb. Region 2458 did expand somewhat, but is not yet considered a major threat for noteworthy solar flares. What remains of old region 2443 is now beginning to turn into view off the east limb. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the past 24 hours. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest data and imagery."
The process is a bit complicated. A decline in solar activity leads to a gradual increase in ozone in the atmosphere which allows for warming in the stratosphere. The stratosphere expands down, but must press down onto the troposphere thus leading to cooling of the troposphere along with lower 500 MB heights
So a warm stratosphere expands, as warm air masses do, but obviously can not expand into space. So, the stratosphere presses down on the troposphere. The troposphere (where we live) in response, contracts and cools. This leads to below normal 500 MB heights where the stratosphere is warmest.
None that sounds right. What is your source for this?
It's Physics. Google it or maybe even graph it and see how good the correlation is.. I broke it down into simple terms but like I said, it's complicated and I don't think we can ever talk like a scientist or physicist explaining it.
It's Physics. Google it or maybe even graph it and see how good the correlation is..
I have.
The part that makes no sense is this
Quote:
A decline in solar activity leads to a gradual increase in ozone in the atmosphere which allows for warming in the stratosphere.
Why would a decrease in UV lead to an increase in ozone? UV is what creates ozone. Ozone levels rise with increased UV activity. Rising ozone increases warming in the stratosphere.
Saying a quiet sun causes more ozone seems the reverse of what physics predicts. I may be wrong, but that is what I thought was the case.
Perhaps they are theorizing cooling (from less UV) leads to less ozone destruction, and an eventual increase, but I thought that was one of the great unknowns of ozone chemistry.
Must do research now.
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