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Another cloudy, rainy day. It may be above normal, but at least it's not sunny or particularly warm at the moment. December 23-25 also looking cloudy. As long as it's not too warm to sleep, it may not be that bad.
I'd like to see what other years had a strong sitting Vortex like this year that didn't split off until later in winter. And difference would be a declining sleepy sun this time. Weak sun "helps" warm the stratosphere up and displace the Vortex. It hasn't yet because as usual, there are other factors in play. So maybe it wont split.
I still cant believe the peak solar activity in this cycle was not only so much lower than forecast but lower once again vs previous cycles.
Interesting graph. I read this article that stated a weak sun correlates much better with a cold Europe than it does with a cold North America. I'm going to look for the article, but basically it stated the correlation to cold in North America is much weaker than Europe. The jist of the article was that when the sun goes sleepy, Europe better prepare for some really brutal winters.
The southern hemisphere vortex almost never breaks down, and it is because it is so very strong. They rarely have a breakdown of the vortex. It is one of the reasons they do not get the brutal cold down there in winter than we do. It is not just because of the all the water, it is also because that vortex is wicked in winter.
The southern hemisphere vortex almost never breaks down, and it is because it is so very strong. They rarely have a breakdown of the vortex. It is one of the reasons they do not get the brutal cold down there in winter than we do. It is not just because of the all the water, it is also because that vortex is wicked in winter.
That's true. And probably why there's less melting over Antarctica vs the Arctic where its susceptible to warming when the Vortex breaks up. When I look at the South Pole in July I always see MUCH colder temps than the North Pole in Mid Winter.
BTW .. NYC is +12.1° above normal this month so far.
That's true. And probably why there's less melting over Antarctica vs the Arctic where its susceptible to warming when the Vortex breaks up. When I look at the South Pole in July I always see MUCH colder temps than the North Pole in Mid Winter.
BTW .. NYC is +12.1° above normal this month so far.
Not to forget February ended -11.4°.
That brings to mind a question. What if the northern hemisphere vortex gets much stronger with a cooling earth, would it result in less extreme temps in the southern US? It is the breakdown of the vortex that almost always brings extreme cold to the low latitude places of the US SE.
That brings to mind a question. What if the northern hemisphere vortex gets much stronger with a cooling earth, would it result in less extreme temps in the southern US? It is the breakdown of the vortex that almost always brings extreme cold to the low latitude places of the US SE.
So maybe "cold epoch" guy isn't such a nutter after all?
That brings to mind a question. What if the northern hemisphere vortex gets much stronger with a cooling earth, would it result in less extreme temps in the southern US? It is the breakdown of the vortex that almost always brings extreme cold to the low latitude places of the US SE.
I believe you're on to something there. But has there been an era where the Northern Hem PV never broke off? Or maybe a better question .. whats the most consecutive winters where it never broke off?
Here's a current look. Typically need to look higher than 500mb & 850mb but it all relates.
Looks like it shifted or adjusted a bit from the other day but still there. Regarding extreme temps to SE U.S I believe it can still happen... just a different forcing mechanism. If you get those spokes to drop down with a digging trough, the SE U.S can still get very cold.
Of course when the PV is near you can get historically cold but I don't think it has to break off for the Southeast to experience extremes. Need more research on that.
You can see now with a digging Jet Stream in Central U.S the pinks are inside the trough. (-10C & colder), just need that to push harder down which wont happen this time. Atlantic Ridge needs to weaken & cool as well.
Then you have to think about winds.. are the winds not as strong and that's why the coldest air isn't pushing down as much? Or is that Pacific air just cutting into all the cold and moderating it.
Normal is -6C at 850mb over North Dakota right now. +5C over Georgia
Here's Mid February 2015. MUCH easier for everyone including the south to get cold with a PV positioned that far south
Raining outside in the 50s. Refreshing air off to the West is coming. What does 30s feel like during the day? Heck... what does freezing feel like at night?
Not 1 wisk of blue on the radar except in Maine but even they will get rain, not snow from this.
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