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Wow. If true, second half of January and February are going to be brutal. One can only hope!
Well, El Nino hasn't weakened much at all. It is so strong it just won't break down over a few weeks. If you are using the term brutal, as extreme cold( and I am not sure you are), then I would be very surprised to get extreme cold air this winter. Could we see more normal temps from mid January through February with some big snows? Yes, we could. But the earlier predictions of a temperatures flip by many models by late December just isn't happening. Now looks to be at least mid January before any possibility for winter to return.
El Nino is driving the weather right now, but even if it doesn't break down, blocking could develop over Greenland or we there could be SSW event which could trump El Nino. That happened in 2009 where El Nino's influence was negated by a persistent Greenland Block.
There is some evidence that SSW may begin to occur around Christmas, but will it be enough to disrupt the Polar Vortex? Probably not right away.
There is some evidence that SSW may begin to occur around Christmas, but will it be enough to disrupt the Polar Vortex? Probably not right away.
It's nice to see others jump on something that Steve D was the first and pretty much only Meteo who talked about that. That's how I learned a Sudden Warming of the Stratosphere affects the Polar Vortex and weakens it. When it weakens it starts to split and that's when you get pieces of it to roam around "somewhere". Where? North America? Asia? Europe?
Stratosphere is at record cold levels right now and that's why the Vortex has just been sitting and spinning at the Pole gaining strength.
It's nice to see others jump on something that Steve D was the first and pretty much only Meteo who talked about that. That's how I learned a Sudden Warming of the Stratosphere affects the Polar Vortex and weakens it. When it weakens it starts to split and that's when you get pieces of it to roam around "somewhere". Where? North America? Asia? Europe?
Stratosphere is at record cold levels right now and that's why the Vortex has just been sitting and spinning at the Pole gaining strength.
I've heard that too. It's going to take a big warming event to split the Vortex
I've heard that too. It's going to take a big warming event to split the Vortex
I'd like to see what other years had a strong sitting Vortex like this year that didn't split off until later in winter. And difference would be a declining sleepy sun this time. Weak sun "helps" warm the stratosphere up and displace the Vortex. It hasn't yet because as usual, there are other factors in play. So maybe it wont split.
I still cant believe the peak solar activity in this cycle was not only so much lower than forecast but lower once again vs previous cycles.
Phone now says 58/47 for 12-23 and high of 61 on 12-24. I would not be terribly upset about that. Hopefully the forecast gets even better. Even a small improvement makes a big difference for me.
Thats going to be another significant snow storm for the mountains. What a year!
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
And yet another reference to the Polar Vortex this morning. If this puppy breaks off, watch out!
Could go to Europe in which we would enjoy an early Spring in Eastern U.S.
I wonder if its tougher to break off when its built so strong as it is.
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