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Seems to happen that way most of the time, I guess that's one of the main reasons MS & AL are always in the bullseye.
It does seem like storm systems move into Mississippi by early to mid-afternoon, and Alabama by late afternoon, when the atmosphere is most unstable, but they don't more into Georgia until about sunset, when the atmosphere begins to simmer down. The storms tend to move into Atlanta by nightfall, and Athens (where I live) around midnight or so.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
Storm #1. Plains Blizzard. Feb 5th
I call this the NAM18z CK&CC. Central Kansas & Colorado Crush. 1-2 feet of snow.
Farmers love a deep snowpack!
Look how crazy the weather in Missouri will be. A blizzard in the northwestern corner of the state, and severe thunderstorms in the southeastern corner.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
Hate to use the over used word but, With El Nino and the Southern Branch active, it seems easier to get the warmth to push north and therefore easier to go over forecasts because models underestimate the power of the southern push. Also, if you are drier than normal that will increase chances of going over as well as it will get hotter with a drier ground.
BTW ... Max 60s today and Max teens next week? Kentucky is interesting.
GFS12z Max temps Wednesday Feb 10th
That's 2 cold posts. I will get to the storms in a little bit.
Heh, the freezing line passes right through my house.
Was seconds away from starting a February Stormy Thread.
Count them..
4 storms in next 10 days.
Feb 1st, 3rd, 8th, & 10th.
Everyone got their coffee ready? Pattern continues and has been active since November really.
Storm #1: Stays well to the north.. All we get is scattered showers around from it dragging a front.
Storm #2: Blizzard for Plains as it Cuts to the Great Lakes and drags a front with it. Warms up considerably ahead of it. Warm Rains for us in East....
Storm #3: Are you sitting? Well... Latest Euro says Another foot of snow but instead of NYC south, it says NYC north this time. Buries Eastern CT, Long Island, RI and Boston and Southern Maine. Vermont misses out.
Storm #4: Are you still sitting? Well ... Euro doesn't go that far yet but GFS showing another potential big Storm. Could be snow, Could be rain. Too far for details.
CFSv2 most recent run looks VASTLY different thank it's forecast from a month ago. Almost the enitre nation below average with biggest departures right here
Great explanation of what may happen with the PV over the coming days and weeks
Storm #1 right now looks like the track will take Blizzard conditions into Iowa and Wisconsin. But I'll hope for a 75-100 mile shift
Storm #1 right now looks like the track will take Blizzard conditions into Iowa and Wisconsin. But I'll hope for a 75-100 mile shift
Not happening. Sorry. Usually dont get that big a shift within 48hrs. 25 miles yes, 50 miles somtimes, 75+ rare because by this time models have enough data to know the general path within 25 miles.
Im hoping for a miracle for you. Otherwise enjoy the winter rains like the rest of us East of there. Ugh. Friggin sucks I know!! You might get backside snow showers
Not happening. Sorry. Usually dont get that big a shift within 48hrs. 25 miles yes, 50 miles somtimes, 75+ rare because by this time models have enough data to know the general path within 25 miles.
Im hoping for a miracle for you. Otherwise enjoy the winter rains like the rest of us East of there. Ugh. Friggin sucks I know!! You might get backside snow showers
Accu snow total forecast.
Yeah I know. Wishful thinking on my part.
Just watched JB' Saturday summary... Could be an interesting battle between a negative AO and warm phase of the MJO next couple weeks
Last Sunday, I didn't think there would still be an appreciable snow cover here at this point, a week in advance. But... there is Despite the green areas, the snow banks are still pretty big, and the snow-covered areas are still at least a few inches deep.
Keep that in mind for spring "Exceeded forecast high". Got a feeling we'll be seeing a lot of that.
Forecast today was 59F and cloudy, but it's sunny and 64 now. A little too windy but feels nice.
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