Winter Thread 2015-16 (Northern Hemisphere) (climate, snow, warm, Chicago) - Weather -Temperature, sun, sunlight, rain, hurricanes, tornadoes, climate, forecasts, humidity, heat, snow... - Page 288 - City-Data Forum

chicagogeorge · 02-02-2016, 07:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Infamous92

http://twitter.com/PennLive/status/694496284338708480

^^

Maybe the upcoming cold blast wont last longer than a week or ten days?

https://twitter.com/GenscapeWx/statu...24741856657410

Cambium · 02-02-2016, 07:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nei

feel like people have been saying cold is coming all winter for the last month, and it doesn't come. Even if this one pans out, it's not cold for New England

Hmm. I wonder if it's the way you're interpreting the maps or whats expected which makes you say "it didn't come".

I don't think anyone talked about "extreme" cold and I don't think it was for New England. Has the cold happened? OF COURSE. You have to look past your backyard because I agree, New England is being left out so far!

Here's Lexington, Kentucky. 2 Arctic blasts happened.. Another one coming. So these troughs and cold "talks" have happened. Problem is, they angled to the Southeast, not New England.

Now, whats coming? Well... Believe it or not Joe Bastardi believes the MJO over the Stratosphere and Vortex split. The MJO indicating a warm period (or lets call it no arctic invasion), the Stratosphere and Vortex split indicates a Cold period coming.

MJO heading into Phase 4 & 5 which as you can see is a warm Eastern U.S phase.

I already stated my opinion on the up coming cold that was/is being shown. This was 4 days ago!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cambium

Not much coverage in Canada which is why I have my doubts about the upcoming February cold in the U.S. Won't be extreme. You can see the Polar Vortex's split here. (coldest cores)

Cold yes, Not extreme IMO! Question is where does the Core....where does the cold go???

If "Trend is your Friend" then New England wont get it.

Also ... think about something....

If the trough digs too deep and wide where the boundary is down south and well out in the Atlantic, New England gets the cold but not the snow.

If the boundary sits off the coast and the deep cold is interior more, then New England will just be seasonable but they will get the snowstorm chances.

Guess we have to pick which we want!

Models picking up on the latter instead. So that means Trend is your friend and New England will just be seasonable but will have snowstorm chances!

Lastly ........... unlike last year, these troughs are swinging in & out! Nothing is lasting long, but does it ever anyway>????? However, if the Polar Vortex is in Ontario & Quebec then the swinging of the troughs will be closer in time (once a week) rather than twice a month!

Wildcat15 · 02-02-2016, 07:46 AM

Early spring indeed, high in the 60s and thunderstorms tonight with 1-2" of rain possible. There has already been some lightning across the midwest.

muslim12 · 02-02-2016, 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

I don't know what to believe. 00Z GFS brings down the entire Arctic into the Central US

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/694387233567059968

That would be all time record cold.

Ariete · 02-02-2016, 08:02 AM

Nasty week ahead in Northern Europe. Low pressure and W/SW winds dominating. Cloudy, mild, rain/sleet/snow and high winds at times.

chicagogeorge · 02-02-2016, 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by muslim12

That would be all time record cold.

Under the right conditions (like a snowpack), that set up could mean -20F in Illinois.... I don't want to get too excited about this. I have a feeling it's just model eye candy.

muslim12 · 02-02-2016, 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

Under the right conditions (like a snowpack), that set up could mean -20F in Illinois.... I don't want to get too excited about this. I have a feeling it's just model eye candy.

that kind of a setup happened in 85. Billions of dollars in damage and lots of deaths were attributed to it. No worse than hurricane sandy. Not something I would hope for lol.

Wildcat15 · 02-02-2016, 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cambium

Yup, as the Trough digs in the West and the Upper Low spins up towards the Mid West that will draw a more south flow from the Gulf.

Wind is out of the SE right now. I guess it's going to shift during the day. Still 46F at 10am but NWS predicting a big warmup to 68.

Cambium · 02-02-2016, 08:20 AM

See it?

Where is the Thermal Gradient? Warm meets Cold areas? aka Storm Track.

No storms for Mid West except maybe for Clipper types but the bigger snowstorms would be where the Thermal Gradient sets up.

Now just think... a shift of 100 miles East or West of that Trough = Storm or No Storm. Very Cold or Seasonable.

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx

Cambium · 02-02-2016, 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G8RCAT

Wind is out of the SE right now. I guess it's going to shift during the day. Still 46F at 10am but NWS predicting a big warmup to 68.

3 maps. Lets take a look at 3 different levels..

Surface Pressure and Winds. From the SE like you said but it's from the Gulf south of you. Too lazy to check what happens later on.

Mid Level Pressure and Winds. Straight from the Gulf now. Dewpoints in the 60s in Western TN

Upper Level Pressure and Winds. From the SW still just starting to come off the Gulf. Fuel is being fed. Lets see if there's a trigger for Storms there later.