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The AO is so negative and thats why we are able to get this arctic blast in a few days. Doors are open.
Dont like how its going positive but Id like to see the PNA. If thats going negative the white flag is going to wave. Will mean trough West and Ridge or moderation East
Rapid warm up after the rain moved through. It's now partly cloudy and 69 F out. The wind is howling out there now. I was not expecting it to be this strong! More rain is in the forecast for late Saturday night/early Sunday morning.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons
So you guys just went on about the uselessness of long range models and then you throw in the towel that easily?
It can all change on a dime.
I agree. I'm guessing the record warm December we had pretty much scarred them for life.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
That is one nasty looking line. Poor folks. Should be cold and snowing. It's mid January for crying out loud. lol
Some folks will have damage to their property and will be cleaning up the debris
At least Florida saw some active weather worth talking about.
Miami is way too warm either way. Even if I lived in South Carolina/North Carolina I'd hope for record-breaking cold. My perfect January averages are are 48/29 with 4-6" of snow.
A frigid weekend in eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Actual air temperatures below zero (F) tonight through early Tuesday. Wind chills 25 below to 45 below zero.
Yes, Tom you are right, beyond 6-10 days models are basically useless. However, there was never a good agreement on all the models calling for extended cold. In fact, only the Canadian was consistent with that. Now it seems that all the teleconnections are pointing towards a warm spell to end January and start February.
NAO going positive
AO going positive
MJO moving into a phase that is a warm signal for the eastern CONUS
and positive EPO
That's a lot of evidence for a blow torch at the end of January and start of February....
Well, keep in mind the rest of Feb and March can be pretty cold in the East. Just look at last year. We went down to 5F in March. I'm sure Chicago can get far colder. Also, we have had a few huge snowstorms in March.
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