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Old 02-10-2016, 12:21 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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A look at the record coldest air mass aloft for all of Winter and month of February.. Will we break it this weekend?






This is what the GFS has


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Old 02-10-2016, 12:31 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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Should be interesting to watch Mt. Washington temperatures
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Old 02-10-2016, 01:05 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
Should be interesting to watch Mt. Washington temperatures
True in the sense that we have an actual station to see the hourly OBS at that level instead of the 12hr balloon launches but I noticed we really max out in the -30s and when the 850s are that cold the 700mb layer is not much colder. I wonder how to explain that? Is it just because its the coldest temp that can come down at the latitude and just starts sinking to lower levels?

Here is the GFS and Euro 700mb temp for Saturday evening

That core of -35C to -40C actually doesn't make East more. Wonder why. Mountains?

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Old 02-10-2016, 01:35 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
True in the sense that we have an actual station to see the hourly OBS at that level instead of the 12hr balloon launches but I noticed we really max out in the -30s and when the 850s are that cold the 700mb layer is not much colder. I wonder how to explain that? Is it just because its the coldest temp that can come down at the latitude and just starts sinking to lower levels?
Hmm. Interesting. Mid-levels at 700 mb and up are more mixed and unlikely to have huge cold swings. It looks like a polar vortex. Coldest 850 mb centered around western Quebec and the Adirondacks / northern Vermont; only northern Greenland is colder:

pivotalweather - GFS - 850 mb Temperature for Sun 2016-02-14 00z

Here's the profile of the center of the polar vortex in Canada before pulls down south:

pivotalweather - GFS - Sounding at 48.1138, -76.9879 for Sat 2016-02-13 12z

Temperatures stop dropping at 450 mb. Tropopause?! Might be a trait of polar masses, warm location in California keeps cooling till 250 mb, it's actually colder at upper levels than the polar air mass

pivotalweather - GFS - Sounding at 36.6601, -119.2288 for Sun 2016-02-14 00z

Notice in the first link the 850 mb level is colder than the air immediately above or below; doesn't get colder again until about 650 mb. What cause the air to warm above 850 mb? Here's what northern New Hampshire will look like Sunday morning:

pivotalweather - GFS - Sounding at 44.6169, -71.8898 for Sun 2016-02-14 06z

Same shape further southwest, Pennsylania doesn't have that profile and the 700 mb are colder than the 850 mb temperatures:

pivotalweather - GFS - Sounding at 41.4240, -77.2306 for Sun 2016-02-14 00z

700 mb temperatures in Pennsylvania are cooler than further north in Canada; or New England

Quote:
Here is the GFS and Euro 700mb temp for Saturday evening

That core of -35C to -40C actually doesn't make East more. Wonder why. Mountains?
Mountains are big or tall enough to affect the flow in the Northeast. The coldest 700 mb temperatures appear to be on the west side of the polar low, from the flow
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Old 02-10-2016, 02:04 PM
 
Location: Lexington, KY
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Currently at the daily high of 18F (-8C).
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Old 02-10-2016, 02:15 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G8RCAT View Post
Currently at the daily high of 18F (-8C).
Wow. Not something I get to experience enough of.


Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
Hmm. Interesting. Mid-levels at 700 mb and up are more mixed and unlikely to have huge cold swings. It looks like a polar vortex. Coldest 850 mb centered around western Quebec and the Adirondacks / northern Vermont; only northern Greenland is colder:

pivotalweather - GFS - 850 mb Temperature for Sun 2016-02-14 00z

Here's the profile of the center of the polar vortex in Canada before pulls down south:

pivotalweather - GFS - Sounding at 48.1138, -76.9879 for Sat 2016-02-13 12z

Temperatures stop dropping at 450 mb. Tropopause?! Might be a trait of polar masses, warm location in California keeps cooling till 250 mb, it's actually colder at upper levels than the polar air mass

pivotalweather - GFS - Sounding at 36.6601, -119.2288 for Sun 2016-02-14 00z

Notice in the first link the 850 mb level is colder than the air immediately above or below; doesn't get colder again until about 650 mb. What cause the air to warm above 850 mb? Here's what northern New Hampshire will look like Sunday morning:

pivotalweather - GFS - Sounding at 44.6169, -71.8898 for Sun 2016-02-14 06z

Same shape further southwest, Pennsylania doesn't have that profile and the 700 mb are colder than the 850 mb temperatures:

pivotalweather - GFS - Sounding at 41.4240, -77.2306 for Sun 2016-02-14 00z

700 mb temperatures in Pennsylvania are cooler than further north in Canada; or New England



Mountains are big or tall enough to affect the flow in the Northeast. The coldest 700 mb temperatures appear to be on the west side of the polar low, from the flow
Interesting. Good stuff!! No idea why it would be warmer above 850 at that time there.. Clouds? Not in front of PC right now. Love the profile stuff! Seeing u say PA isnt warmer above makes me assume they are clearer from the surface High when NH still has upper clouds around from being near the Vortex?
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Old 02-10-2016, 03:07 PM
 
Location: Arundel, FL
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17 F dew point now

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Old 02-10-2016, 03:07 PM
 
Location: New York
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Thank You. A true sole. You have a right to complain about this weekend. but someone that complains about this winter really found their answer deep inside themselves, that even during one of the warmest winters, the area is not for them & they need to move south.
Yeah, although the warmth was heavily concentrated in December, the remainder of this winter hasn't really been cold. Tolerable for me, but I want warmer, I know I belong elsewhere.

Quote:
Originally Posted by G8RCAT View Post
The warmth made me question if I want to move south.

Charleston, SC reached 70F or higher on 22 out of 31 days in December. 24 days for Savannah. No winter feeling at all!
The warmth confirmed to me (for the 1000th time) that I want to move south/west.
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Old 02-10-2016, 03:14 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

Over $104,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum and additional contests are planned
 
Location: Western Massachusetts
45,983 posts, read 53,506,965 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Interesting. Good stuff!! No idea why it would be warmer above 850 at that time there.. Clouds? Not in front of PC right now. Love the profile stuff! Seeing u say PA isnt warmer above makes me assume they are clearer from the surface High when NH still has upper clouds around from being near the Vortex?
Hmm. Check the green dewpoint line; looks saturated the whole way up in the NH profile. But 6 hours later, unsaturated above 900 mb or so:

pivotalweather - GFS - Sounding at 44.6169, -71.8898 for Sun 2016-02-14 12z

So not clouds?
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Old 02-10-2016, 03:30 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/statu...44455419281408
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