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First day of winter will feel wintery in the Central US
Could this be?
Lot's of buzz about an Arctic invasion in the middle of December. Maybe not just for North America...
CFSv2 still forecasting blow torch for December....
Bastardi forecasting colder than normal for December
Remember this is what CFSv2 put out for November back in late October
And this is reality top 10 coldest Novembers over the last 50+ years for sure
Obviously I'm going with JB's forecast
I told you that CFSV2 is not accurate lol. I go with the two week forecasts. Heck last winter and this year even I noticed how wrong the 16 days ensemble forecasts can be. I really think we are stuck with a general 5-7 day accuracy for weather. Maybe when they really jazz up the weather models it will be more accurate.
Now I hope you keep that in mind when the CFSV2 agrees with your bias and shows cold.
Am curious, weren't there supposed to be some impressive upgrades done to the US models in November or maybe December of this year?
Yes. Its called Parallel GFS for now, I think WB has it available. It wont take over until after the new year I believe. I was worried about it in the Thanksgiving storm thread because it was so off with the storm it wasn't funny. It did not show the coastal storm in the mid range when every model did. It waited until 2-3 days until it realized there was going to be a storm.
I made the comment "Back to the drawing board for GFS or about to Rise & Shine? "
Meaning either it was going to be right and the other models wrong or they have to go back and figure out what the issue is already
Per Ryan Maue yesterday showing the skill score for 3 models for the upper level heights 5 days out. European King. Old GFS better than upgrade
Yes. Its called Parallel GFS for now, I think WB has it available. It wont take over until after the new year I believe. I was worried about it in the Thanksgiving storm thread because it was so off with the storm it wasn't funny. It did not show the coastal storm in the mid range when every model did. It waited until 2-3 days until it realized there was going to be a storm.
I made the comment "Back to the drawing board for GFS or about to Rise & Shine? "
Meaning either it was going to be right and the other models wrong or they have to go back and figure out what the issue is already
Per Ryan Maue yesterday showing the skill score for 3 models for the upper level heights 5 days out. European King. Old GFS better than upgrade
GFS ops: 0.876
GFS par: 0.872
ECMWF: 0.921
Amazing how we can't seem to get a top notch model upgrade.
Meanwhile many folks waking up and it feels like sub zero and single digits outside. Blue outline is Freezing Rain threat
Wind Chills
Hi....
On the mid shift at work... but I tell you I would much rather have our -28F wind chill here in Grand Forks North Dakota than your 50 degrees anyday....
Here's to your cool down. Our temps will be moderating this week as the cold air leaves. Looking for highs 25 to 30 late week and next weekend. Normal highs in early December are mid 20s and lows around 10.
Also a brief taste of winter from North and Western Europe
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It waited until 2-3 days until it realized there was going to be a storm. 
