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If you guys are using the point and click map for the SREF plume snowfall total forecast be careful...
For instance,.. Northern CT BDL is showing a mean of 4.9" for Tuesday night snow. But take a closer look. 4 members are severely inflated with over a foot of snow, while 17 members are under an inch. So the mean is reflecting those very high totals.
I don't think you actually know what the polar vortex is. Not at any point this winter was the polar vortex over the USA. Its been over eastern canada and it is an area of low pressure.
I don't think you actually know what the polar vortex is. Not at any point this winter was the polar vortex over the USA. Its been over eastern canada and it is an area of low pressure.
No kidding!
Of course only a piece of it came down. You would be correct, it was positioned over the Hudson Bay, but it's not completely stationary. It meanders.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2014
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 19 2014 - 12Z Tue Jan 21 2014
***Highly amplified weather pattern across the country***
***Arctic airmass arriving to the Eastern U.S.***
***Continued dry and warm across the Western U.S.***
The weather pattern across the continental U.S. through the beginning of
the work week will be featured with a strong ridge across the western
states and a large scale trough over the eastern half of the country.
There will be a few areas of light snow over the northern tier of the
country, but there is not enough moisture available for any widespread
areas of organized precipitation. The Gulf of Mexico is basically closed
for business in terms of moisture transport in a pattern like this.
Over the West Coast and into the Inter-Mountain West, a very dry weather
pattern is expected to continue through Tuesday. An unusually strong
upper level ridge for this time of year has put its gear in park mode and
will be stubborn to move in the near future. Although this is providing
pleasant outdoor conditions for January, this is causing the ongoing
drought over much of the western U.S. to deteriorate further. This is
also raising the wildfire threat over the southwestern U.S. where relative
humidities in many areas have dropped to under 15 percent.
In the temperature department, expect readings to be above normal across
the Inter-Mountain West and along the West Coast, and below normal across
the Eastern U.S. Much colder weather is expected to arrive with the
passage of a strong Arctic front moving southward into the Upper Midwest
and eventually this will reach the East Coast by Tuesday.
According to the Canadian, Chicago will be pretty cold, air being funneled from the North Pole
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