Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Orleans, Florida: rental market, camping, studios)

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

Well, turns out the WHO claim on the rarity of "no asymptomatic spread" was overstated. Check out how our Gov didn't blindly accept that, but rather consulted his health care experts.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/06/...ff-good-start/

It’s not that it’s overstated. It’s that there is insufficient data. Nobody has done the detailed contact tracing with mutation analysis to quantify the risk. Science contradicts “informed opinion” all the time. The initial informed opinion for this was to extrapolate the Spanish flu to a population of 330 million and project 2.3 million deaths in the United States. A reasonable guess back in February. The WHO and CDC were saying masks are unnecessary until recently. Using the flu as a basis, that was reasonable. There’s now better data about aerosol transmission.

I expect many things will be updated as we get better information and science evolves. That’s normal.


The New York Times had a thing yesterday where they polled 511 infectious disease experts about when they would start doing common activities. It’s behind their paywall so I can’t link to it.

This summer:
Bring in mail without precautions. 64%
See a doctor for a non-urgent appointment. 60%
Vacation overnight within driving distance. 56%
Get a haircut. 41%

3 to 12 months from now:
Attend a small dinner party. 46%
Send children to school, day care, camp. 41%

A year or more:
Attend a wedding or funeral. 41%
Shake hands. 42%
Go out with someone you don’t know well. 42%
Attend church. 43%
Stop routinely wearing a face covering. 52%
Attend a sporting event. 64%

I wonder how that set of informed opinions will change over the next year as better data shows up?

[sawyer2]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

Science contradicts “informed opinion” all the time.

Originally Posted by GeoffD

I expect many things will be updated as we get better information and science evolves. That’s normal.

Evolve your thinking and guidance based on real data??? .... get out of here with that crazy mindset.

[Bridge781]

I think many people are working from him through at least Labor Day and some the rest of this calendar year.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by sawyer2

Evolve your thinking and guidance based on real data??? .... get out of here with that crazy mindset.

...but only if Infowars agrees.

[bohemka]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

[snipped]


The New York Times had a thing yesterday where they polled 511 infectious disease experts about when they would start doing common activities. It’s behind their paywall so I can’t link to it.

This summer:
Bring in mail without precautions. 64%
See a doctor for a non-urgent appointment. 60%
Vacation overnight within driving distance. 56%
Get a haircut. 41%

3 to 12 months from now:
Attend a small dinner party. 46%
Send children to school, day care, camp. 41%

A year or more:
Attend a wedding or funeral. 41%
Shake hands. 42%
Go out with someone you don’t know well. 42%
Attend church. 43%
Stop routinely wearing a face covering. 52%
Attend a sporting event. 64%

I wonder how that set of informed opinions will change over the next year as better data shows up?

That's a pretty grim outlook.

For our personal situation, another disrupted school year and lack of socialization and organized/team events/shared experiences is going to be disastrous for our children at a critical time in their development. It's heartbreaking to consider. Statewide IEPs?

The current situation of everyone being in this together won't hold water in the fall, when people are returning to normal work schedules but children have about 30% of their normal structure. This will also create another wave of forced unemployment, which we are already considering based on the messaging from our school district and childcare options.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by Bridge781

I think many people are working from him through at least Labor Day and some the rest of this calendar year.

Our "return to office" program for non-essentials that was supposed to start on Mon was scrapped at the last min. Looks like we are encouraging WFH through at least July.

[brightdoglover]

Originally Posted by bohemka

That's a pretty grim outlook.

...

I wonder on what basis these people are making their considerations, meaning how do they know what they'll be willing or able to do in the fall and forward? I certainly know people who are holding out and waiting for a vaccine.

I am most fortunate in being retired(and no longer in Massachusetts) My friends who work in healthcare in Boston-area are evaluating their own daily lives or vacations or whatever day by day. No one is making flight reservations or vacation flights for almost another year. I don't know if they are expecting a vaccine, or simply cannot imagine major precautions forever, or what. I know that all my Boston visitors aren't coming this summer, that's for sure.

[lrfox]

Some of the "early to open" states are seeing their biggest spikes in cases and hospitalizations yet, and it's not just due to increased testing: https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...ations-rising/

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

It’s not that it’s overstated. It’s that there is insufficient data. Nobody has done the detailed contact tracing with mutation analysis to quantify the risk. Science contradicts “informed opinion” all the time. The initial informed opinion for this was to extrapolate the Spanish flu to a population of 330 million and project 2.3 million deaths in the United States. A reasonable guess back in February. The WHO and CDC were saying masks are unnecessary until recently. Using the flu as a basis, that was reasonable. There’s now better data about aerosol transmission.

I expect many things will be updated as we get better information and science evolves. That’s normal.


The New York Times had a thing yesterday where they polled 511 infectious disease experts about when they would start doing common activities. It’s behind their paywall so I can’t link to it.

This summer:
Bring in mail without precautions. 64%
See a doctor for a non-urgent appointment. 60%
Vacation overnight within driving distance. 56%
Get a haircut. 41%

3 to 12 months from now:
Attend a small dinner party. 46%
Send children to school, day care, camp. 41%

A year or more:
Attend a wedding or funeral. 41%
Shake hands. 42%
Go out with someone you don’t know well. 42%
Attend church. 43%
Stop routinely wearing a face covering. 52%
Attend a sporting event. 64%

I wonder how that set of informed opinions will change over the next year as better data shows up?

I agree, this is all very gloomy. My personal views are much more bullish...for example, I got a haircut on May 28 and did not feel unsafe at all.

It's interesting how these views are so sharply split along party lines (see the poll linked below). Before this year, I would have never thought a pandemic could have such political implications. I don't want to impute any motives, but clearly sources of information, and education levels, have to factor into this vast difference.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/10/polit...rus/index.html

[timberline742]

Originally Posted by brightdoglover

I wonder on what basis these people are making their considerations, meaning how do they know what they'll be willing or able to do in the fall and forward? I certainly know people who are holding out and waiting for a vaccine.

I am most fortunate in being retired(and no longer in Massachusetts) My friends who work in healthcare in Boston-area are evaluating their own daily lives or vacations or whatever day by day. No one is making flight reservations or vacation flights for almost another year. I don't know if they are expecting a vaccine, or simply cannot imagine major precautions forever, or what. I know that all my Boston visitors aren't coming this summer, that's for sure.

I am seeing the exact opposite. People are taking advantage of low fares and booking plenty.