Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston: degrees, alternate, medicaid)

[BostonMike7]

Latest case numbers have been pretty low. Around 500 or less cases per day. So two weeks from now should be a good indicator as to if there will be a resurgence, or if this is starting to fizzle out.

[bjimmy24]

Originally Posted by porterhouse

We’ll find out if this was all overdone or not in a few weeks. People are out in full force today, traffic, store parking lots, etc. are at pre pandemic levels. The protests and riots have unofficially reopened the country without regard for the phases.

If you look at Minnesota cases, their case trend peaked on May 25 and has been going down since the 26th (first day of mass gathering protests). I'm using the cases trend data from https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...-cases-deaths/

I personally expect to see this trend continue, in Minnesota and nationwide. If this proves correct, I really think there is really no reason to ban concerts, sports, outdoor events in general. I am skeptical that indoor events really matter either, but I think there is really no reason to deprive people of the summer with such little threat (really at this point, no greater than getting sick of anything else).

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by bjimmy24

If you look at Minnesota cases, their case trend peaked on May 25 and has been going down since the 26th (first day of mass gathering protests). I'm using the cases trend data from https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...-cases-deaths/

I personally expect to see this trend continue, in Minnesota and nationwide. If this proves correct, I really think there is really no reason to ban concerts, sports, outdoor events in general. I am skeptical that indoor events really matter either, but I think there is really no reason to deprive people of the summer with such little threat (really at this point, no greater than getting sick of anything else).

I do hope you're correct, but wouldn't declare victory from the Minnesota numbers until 3 weeks from 5/25, which would be around 6/15.

[BostonMike7]

https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-da...-2020/download

425 new cases, 68 deaths. Still dropping

[charolastra00]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-da...-2020/download

425 new cases, 68 deaths. Still dropping

And Wednesdays are normally are a spike catching up after the weekend.

[bjimmy24]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

I do hope you're correct, but wouldn't declare victory from the Minnesota numbers until 3 weeks from 5/25, which would be around 6/15.

Right but I think it's telling that the narrative used to be 2 weeks later to see deaths. Now the goal posts are moved to 3-4 weeks and for cases. Not directed at you, just in general, I have noticed a constant shift to longer term metrics. Even still, the "virus skeptics" always come out on correct, but they just hope you don't remember.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by bjimmy24

Right but I think it's telling that the narrative used to be 2 weeks later to see deaths. Now the goal posts are moved to 3-4 weeks and for cases. Not directed at you, just in general, I have noticed a constant shift to longer term metrics. Even still, the "virus skeptics" always come out on correct, but they just hope you don't remember.

I'll remember, because I am definitely rooting for MA to get to and through Phase 2 successfully. I only mention 3 weeks, because MA is also tracking hospitalization rates as one of the 4 key metrics. 2 weeks is correct for the first symptoms showing up, but it's usually 3+ weeks for a fraction of those cases to turn serious enough for hospitalization.

I think we all want the same thing (virus skeptics or not)--no one wants to see this shutdown drag out.

[bohemka]

Originally Posted by bjimmy24

Right but I think it's telling that the narrative used to be 2 weeks later to see deaths. Now the goal posts are moved to 3-4 weeks and for cases. Not directed at you, just in general, I have noticed a constant shift to longer term metrics. Even still, the "virus skeptics" always come out on correct, but they just hope you don't remember.

The "narrative" has always been that symptoms can appear as long as two weeks after exposure, which is why a self-quarantine period of two weeks after possible exposure has consistently been recommended.

I believe even back in March they were saying the time from incubation to death averaged three weeks, so three to four weeks until someone succumbs to COVID-19 doesn't seem like new spin or that the goal posts are moving. That's been the story all along.

Between Memorial Day festivities and BLM protests, we are conducting concurrent experiments all over this country. I hope as much as anyone this really is petering out and we can take strides back into our normal routines.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by bjimmy24

Right but I think it's telling that the narrative used to be 2 weeks later to see deaths. Now the goal posts are moved to 3-4 weeks and for cases. Not directed at you, just in general, I have noticed a constant shift to longer term metrics. Even still, the "virus skeptics" always come out on correct, but they just hope you don't remember.

I don’t get why people find this hard to understand. To avoid a pandemic, we need to adopt behaviors to keep the transmission rate below 1.0. We don’t have herd immunity. If you put 37,000 people in Fenway Park every night, fill the movie theaters, stage huge concerts, fill churches, and all the other large gatherings, the transmission rate shoots to well beyond 1.0. The hospitals overflow. We kill off a significant fraction of vulnerable people. If you crash your car and are seriously injured, you die because the hospital is full of people with severe pneumonia.

There’s a middle ground where people can change their behavior to keep the transmission rate low and open most things back up. Are you washing your hands frequently? Are you avoiding physical contact with people? Are you wearing a mask in congested areas? If everyone does that, we can turn most things that aren’t large group events back on.

[mdovell]

^^^ this.

Some processes can't go from 15-20% to 100% in three weeks.

A second wave I think might not be as bad but will feel worse due to the winter. Imagine having it and you can't travel. Not seeing relatives and friends. Isolation during the holidays will be horrible