Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston: basin, love, meeting)

[AtkinsonDan]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

That is good news, but only 1 dr is making that claim right now. Fingers crossed that we can move on past this soon.


It does make sense that a weaker version would emerge as the most common over time. A weaker virus doesn't incapacitate it's host and allows them to still continue to actively pass the virus on to others. Eventually the numbers of the "weaker" strain surpass the more deadly strain because it's tough to pass on that strain when the host is on their deathbed.

^^^ That's the logic behind evolution!

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

If the reports on Vitamin D are true, it's possible being outdoors in daytime may even have a net benefit for those who would otherwise stay cloistered behind glass windows.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...183-2/fulltext

All throughout this pandemic, most agencies and experts have encouraged getting outside specifically for the health benefits (mental and physical). Of course, social distancing was the caveat, but it's been encouraged from the start:

• https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/...-2020042719653
• https://www.mass.gov/info-details/ma...uring-covid-19

Originally Posted by bjimmy24

The Second Wave has at no point been an actual scientific foregone conclusion by any means. This is at least up to now looking more and more like an improbability. It has for a long time actually.

While it's never been a foregone conclusion, it was also never safe to assume it wouldn't happen either given the information we've had at hand. Naturally, without an effective and widely distributed vaccine, herd immunity, or the virus mutating to the point of dying off, it's safer to assume that once people start resuming "normal" behaviors, that it would lead to another spike in cases. We won't know for sure until it does or doesn't happen. The report from Italy is good news, but it's far from concrete. And most of the viruses vary slightly by region, so it doesn't necessarily mean what's happening in Italy is happening to the virus here.

[bjimmy24]

Originally Posted by porterhouse

The experts are saying the 2nd wave will be bad enough for schools to be cancelled in the fall, but the models show it should be over by November 3rd.

Canceling school is a political decision. All throughout Europe schools are reopening. Even in places hit much worse than the USA/Mass.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

That is good news, but only 1 dr is making that claim right now. Fingers crossed that we can move on past this soon.


It does make sense that a weaker version would emerge as the most common over time. A weaker virus doesn't incapacitate it's host and allows them to still continue to actively pass the virus on to others. Eventually the numbers of the "weaker" strain surpass the more deadly strain because it's tough to pass on that strain when the host is on their deathbed.

I don’t follow your logic. The mortality rate for COVID-19 is really low. It’s killing people in nursing homes and otherwise mostly unhealthy and/or elderly people. There’s pretty much no natural selection going on since humans of reproductive age or younger don’t die from it. At least that’s my high school biology level of understanding.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

I don’t follow your logic. The mortality rate for COVID-19 is really low. It’s killing people in nursing homes and otherwise mostly unhealthy and/or elderly people. There’s pretty much no natural selection going on since humans of reproductive age or younger don’t die from it. At least that’s my high school biology level of understanding.

I understand the logic generally speaking - the deadlier strain is more, well, deadly. And generally, if a virus is incapacitating people (and in many cases, eventually killing them), the hosts aren't spreading it as rapidly because they're incapacitated (or dead). So over time, the weaker strain becomes the dominant strain because hosts are not incapacitated and can spread it far and wide.

It's tough with COVID-19, however, because the incubation period is often pretty long. Even a deadly case can exist in a host and be spread for days before symptoms start to show.

[OutdoorLover]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

That is good news, but only 1 dr is making that claim right now. Fingers crossed that we can move on past this soon.


It does make sense that a weaker version would emerge as the most common over time. A weaker virus doesn't incapacitate it's host and allows them to still continue to actively pass the virus on to others. Eventually the numbers of the "weaker" strain surpass the more deadly strain because it's tough to pass on that strain when the host is on their deathbed.

While I can understand that reasoning, there are deadly viruses that persist, without evolving to be minor health threats - like smallpox, ebola, HIV, rabies... it's not required that the host survive - only that they survive long enough to be able to transmit it to others.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by OutdoorLover

While I can understand that reasoning, there are deadly viruses that persist, without evolving to be minor health threats - like smallpox, ebola, HIV, rabies... it's not required that the host survive - only that they survive long enough to be able to transmit it to others.

I agree, but the world didn't go into lockdown and high alert for rabies. All of the social distancing measures, masks, cleaning, restrictions in long-term care facilities, etc was geared towards stoping the advance of Covid.

Now, whether or not these measures were truly effective will be argued about for the next few years.

For the record, I wasn't actually stating that covid has become weaker as I personally have no such data to make such a claim. Some it may be wishful thinking as well.

Originally Posted by GeoffD

I don’t follow your logic. The mortality rate for COVID-19 is really low. It’s killing people in nursing homes and otherwise mostly unhealthy and/or elderly people. There’s pretty much no natural selection going on since humans of reproductive age or younger don’t die from it. At least that’s my high school biology level of understanding.

The virus doesn't have to kill. I was speaking more of severity of the illness. Take two healthy 30-year olds and infect them with two different strains of Covid. One more more severe, and one is weaker. Person with more severe illness is off their feet and in bed for a week. Person with the "weaker" strain has a sniffle and cough, but otherwise continues their normal routine. This person can likely infect far more people than the person home in bed even if neither people dies from the virus. Of course, ease of spread can also have ZERO to do with the overall lethality of a virus.

Again, i'm not claiming this is happening. Just putting some reasoning behind that 1 doctors possible claim

[OutdoorLover]

Regarding facemasks and social distancing, here is a new research paper published in the prestigious medical journal The Lancet: "Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis"

The short answer is, yes, they are quite effective. Results are presented as odds-ratios, which are the relative risk of infection. If the odds ratio is 0.50, you're only half as likely to acquire the infection. Physical distance of >= 1 meter brought an odds ratio of 0.18, which was even better at longer distances. Face masks (of any type) brought an odds-ratio of 0.15. They also break it down by mask type...lots more in the paper itself, linked below.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...142-9/fulltext

[timberline742]

Originally Posted by OutdoorLover

While I can understand that reasoning, there are deadly viruses that persist, without evolving to be minor health threats - like smallpox, ebola, HIV, rabies... it's not required that the host survive - only that they survive long enough to be able to transmit it to others.

All of these are non respiratory and need physical contact, saliva with rabies, etc (I don't know enough about smallbox except our utilizing it for biological warfare again native peoples while looting their country). Very different situations.

[mdovell]

Dealing with accommodations is far more involved than being closed.