Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston: unsafe, appointment, options)

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

Here is the Lancet article: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...095-X/fulltext

It's not hard to find and you're going to just dismiss the conclusions for some reason or another, so it wasn't worth the tricky exercise to find and post the link on my phone (I'm at a computer now, so not as hard). For someone who demands peer review for a counter-agrument, you seem pretty slow to post links to peer review in favor of your argument.

Sure, maybe the proposed six feet of seperation is the magic formula that will be THE difference maker. In the absence of any evidence that this is the case (everything I've seen has been conjecture) so the usual rejoineder is that "it can't hurt". That's true, but misses the point that every restriction carries a cost. You want the benefit to outweigh the cost.

My intuition tells me that schools should probably be open open or just entirely closed. The six foot thing seems like the epitome of cargo-cult science. Someone somewhere said six feet, so that is what we're using in pretty much all situations from outside in parks to spending the entire day indoors. I wouldn't be surpised if no amount of social distancing makes much difference for people who spend the whole day in the same room.

In three months, many schools in the world will have been open for four or more months. There is already evidence that opening schools doesn't cause a spike in infection rates. In three months we will know even more. My hope is that schools will look at the evidence as it comes in and make plans based on evidence, not "common sense" or worst-case scenarios. If it means schools are totally closed, that is what it is. If it means that schools can totally open, I hope officials are going to be OK with that.

So it's using 2003 SARS data and 2009 H1N1 data.

There are few data available from the literature on coronavirus outbreaks to guide countries on the use of school closures or other school social distancing practices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

You're going to base public policy on that paper? Really?

[porterhouse]

Here's another interesting study regarding Covid-19 and schools:

http://ncirs.org.au/sites/default/fi...ril%202020.pdf

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

So it's using 2003 SARS data and 2009 H1N1 data.

You're going to base public policy on that paper? Really?

I'd suggest taking that paper into account when formulating public policy. Of course all the papers you've been posting with ample evidence of how important school closures have been are pretty convincing. So we should weigh the body of evidence and make informed conclusions.

The issue is that in the absence of sufficient evidence, people often default to "I will believe what I believe unless you prove me wrong". You (and many policy-makers) have defaulted to this position on schools and have set a too-high barrier for what constitutes proof.

I can't definitively say kids are or aren't a major contributor. I would like us to keep an open mind on the question, not default to "kids are definitely superspreaders and we need to keep them isolated indefinitely". Other countries are running experiments on that question right now. I think we should be open to modifying our procedures (either more or less restrictive) based on evidence.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...-still-mystery

[bohemka]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

Here is the Lancet article: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...095-X/fulltext

It's not hard to find and you're going to just dismiss the conclusions for some reason or another, so it wasn't worth the tricky exercise to find and post the link on my phone (I'm at a computer now, so not as hard). For someone who demands peer review for a counter-agrument, you seem pretty slow to post links to peer review in favor of your argument.

Sure, maybe the proposed six feet of seperation is the magic formula that will be THE difference maker. In the absence of any evidence that this is the case (everything I've seen has been conjecture) so the usual rejoineder is that "it can't hurt". That's true, but misses the point that every restriction carries a cost. You want the benefit to outweigh the cost.

My intuition tells me that schools should probably be open open or just entirely closed. The six foot thing seems like the epitome of cargo-cult science. Someone somewhere said six feet, so that is what we're using in pretty much all situations from outside in parks to spending the entire day indoors. I wouldn't be surpised if no amount of social distancing makes much difference for people who spend the whole day in the same room.

In three months, many schools in the world will have been open for four or more months. There is already evidence that opening schools doesn't cause a spike in infection rates. In three months we will know even more. My hope is that schools will look at the evidence as it comes in and make plans based on evidence, not "common sense" or worst-case scenarios. If it means schools are totally closed, that is what it is. If it means that schools can totally open, I hope officials are going to be OK with that.

I feel the same way regarding schools. I was perfectly fine with them closing down for the year due to uncertainty and erring on the side of caution, but there should be enough data this summer to understand with reasonable confidence how school attendance should be treated in the fall.

If numbers continue to drop and we pass successfully through each phase, everything will be in full swing by September. If everyone is back to work but kids are still home from school three days a week, that would be a nightmare.

[yesmaybe]

Ooh, Southeast Expressway congestion is pretty heavy today. Not the typical volume you would typically see but it's pretty bad. Guess things might be getting back to normal after all.

[htfdcolt]

Well, turns out the WHO claim on the rarity of "no asymptomatic spread" was overstated. Check out how our Gov didn't blindly accept that, but rather consulted his health care experts.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/06/...ff-good-start/

[Bridge781]

I really am anxious about what will happen with schools in the fall. Just read this article:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bos...-reopening/amp

Seems like they’re spinning this to say that disadvantaged people particularly people of color won’t be able to afford PPE and will have trouble if kids aren’t in school full time. I’d just hate to have the rule be no masks or have class be as normal because others can’t afford it. I’ll likely have my kids wear a mask either way.

[RBThescot]

Originally Posted by Bridge781

Seems like they’re spinning this to say that disadvantaged people particularly people of color won’t be able to afford PPE....
I’d just hate to have the rule be no masks or have class be as normal because others can’t afford it.

Maybe they're not "spinning" it. Maybe they have a realistic, empathetic, compassionate understanding of poverty. Why not be a good guy and send your kids to school with extra masks for any of their peers who don't have one? As a way of showing karmic gratitude for the advantages afforded you?

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by Bridge781

I really am anxious about what will happen with schools in the fall. Just read this article:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bos...-reopening/amp

Seems like they’re spinning this to say that disadvantaged people particularly people of color won’t be able to afford PPE and will have trouble if kids aren’t in school full time. I’d just hate to have the rule be no masks or have class be as normal because others can’t afford it. I’ll likely have my kids wear a mask either way.

My mask is a piece of cotton bed sheet, a couple of black hair elastic ties, and some thread. I don’t get the “can’t afford PPE”. It’s not like you need to buy a box of N95 masks every week.

A laptop or tablet with a broadband connection to do remote classroom? Yeah, that’s a barrier. A mask???? GMAFB.

[yesmaybe]

The MBTA is increasing service on June 21st. Other than the Blue Line, it'd still not be running at normal service then but it's much closer. Perhaps that's roughly the date when more people in Boston will be going back to the office.